GCRI · 贸易与战略资源
供应商集中度
An economy or firm that depends on one or two suppliers for an essential input is exposed to any shock those suppliers face. Concentration can be at the level of countries, firms or facilities, and it is often hidden several tiers up a supply chain. This page sets out how concentration arises, how it is measured from trade and firm data, and what evidence serves the governments and firms working to diversify.
Supplier concentration: how the risk develops.
Single points of failure in production. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Efficiency favours concentration
Scale economies, specialised know-how and low prices draw demand to the most efficient suppliers. Concentration grows from individually rational sourcing choices.
Dependence hides in deeper tiers
A buyer may have many direct suppliers who all depend on the same subcomponent maker. Firms often lack visibility beyond their first tier.
Few substitutes raise exposure
Concentration matters most when an input cannot be replaced quickly by another product or supplier, because of qualification, certification or technical lock-in.
Shocks propagate along dependence
When a concentrated supplier stops, buyers across industries and countries are hit at once, and competition for remaining supply raises prices.
马六甲海峡的活动与危害。
Night lights, population density and land cover over the Strait of Malacca, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
交互式地图需要JavaScript；图层列表和来源见下文。
图层 3
本页的活动与危害
关于本图层
- 证据
- 观测
- 来源
- VIIRS Black Marble（VNP46A2）（NASA LAADS DAAC）
- 提供方
- NASA LAADS DAAC
- 许可协议
- NASA 开放数据
- 年份版本
- 每日；卫星辐射亮度，已校正月光和大气影响
- 构建时的最新内容
- 2026-10-12
- 处理结果
- 约 500 米网格
- 不确定性
- 所示日期的卫星夜间辐射亮度；灯光是用电和停电的替代指标，并非对供应或获得电力情况的测量。
- 经由以下途径到达
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov，仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
- 证据
- 估计值
- 来源
- 世界网格化人口 v4.11（NASA SEDAC（哥伦比亚大学 CIESIN））
- 提供方
- NASA SEDAC（哥伦比亚大学 CIESIN）
- 许可协议
- CC BY 4.0
- 年份版本
- null；基于人口普查的估算，静态（2020）
- 处理结果
- 约 1 公里网格
- 不确定性
- 基于人口普查的 2020 年每平方公里人口估算，作为风险暴露背景展示；不是受任何危害影响的人数。
- 经由以下途径到达
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov，仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
关于本图层
- 证据
- 观测
- 来源
- VIIRS NOAA-20 校正反射率（NASA LANCE）
- 提供方
- NASA LANCE
- 许可协议
- NASA 开放数据
- 年份版本
- 每日；卫星图像
- 构建时的最新内容
- 2026-10-14
- 处理结果
- 约 250 米网格
- 不确定性
- 卫星图像。卫星或模型栅格数据，按提供方发布的原样呈现。云层、条带缺口和反演误差会造成缺口和噪声；数值是指标，而非某地的测量值。
- 经由以下途径到达
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov，仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
- 证据
- 模型生成（GIBS 发布的最新年份）
- 来源
- MODIS Terra 和 Aqua 土地覆盖（MCD12Q1）（NASA LP DAAC）
- 提供方
- NASA LP DAAC
- 许可协议
- NASA 开放数据
- 年份版本
- 每年；卫星分类；GIBS 发布的最新年份
- 构建时的最新内容
- 2024-01-01
- 处理结果
- 约 500 米网格
- 不确定性
- 所示年份的卫星土地覆盖类别，含农田；该分类存在已知误差，并非农场登记册。
- 经由以下途径到达
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov，仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
- 证据
- 观测（云层造成缺口）
- 来源
- MODIS Terra EVI（NASA LANCE）
- 提供方
- NASA LANCE
- 许可协议
- NASA 开放数据
- 年份版本
- 每日；卫星指数；云层造成缺口
- 构建时的最新内容
- 2026-10-13
- 处理结果
- 约 250 米网格
- 不确定性
- 截至所示日期 8 天的卫星植被指数，是栖息地状况指标；不衡量物种或生物多样性。
- 经由以下途径到达
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov，仅在您允许实时地图后访问
键盘操作，地图获得焦点时
按住 Ctrl 或 ⌘ 并滚动以缩放
最新可用
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap贡献者 (ODbL) · Natural Earth
正在加载最新的NASA影像。
拖动以移动。按住 Ctrl 或 ⌘ 并滚动、双指缩放或使用按钮缩放；悬停可查看指针下的数值；重置可返回该区域。
活动与危害，以马六甲海峡为取景。NASA 发布的卫星和模型产品，各带自己的日期。它们是指标，而非对任何地点的评估。
数据：NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap 贡献者 · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT来源与许可
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA 开放数据
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA 开放数据
- VIIRS Black Marble 夜间灯光，NASA 戈达德航天中心；由 NASA Level-1 与大气档案和分发系统（LAADS DAAC）分发；影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘；显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均（经修改）。 NASA 开放数据
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). 采用 CC BY 4.0 许可。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘；显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均（经修改）。 doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- GHRSST Level 4 MUR 分析，NASA 喷气推进实验室；由 NASA 物理海洋学 DAAC（PO.DAAC）分发；影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘；显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均（经修改）。 NASA 开放数据
- VIIRS 近实时产品（洪水、地表温度、积雪覆盖、校正反射率），NASA LANCE；影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘；显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均（经修改）。 NASA 开放数据
- MODIS 陆地产品（植被指数、总初级生产力、土地覆盖），NASA LP DAAC 和 LANCE；影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘；显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均（经修改）。 NASA 开放数据
- ASTER GDEM 是 METI 和 NASA 的产品（ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003，NASA LP DAAC）；影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘；显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均（经修改）。引用格式：NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA 开放数据
- 使用 Natural Earth 制作。免费矢量和栅格地图数据，见 naturalearthdata.com。 公有领域
- © OpenStreetMap 贡献者（ODbL），经由 NASA GIBS（海岸线、边界、道路和地名）。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘；显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均（经修改）。 ODbL
- Blue Marble，NASA Earth Observatory；影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘；显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均（经修改）。 NASA 开放数据
- 地球仪和平面地图上的背景信息：海岸线、边界、道路和地名来自 NASA GIBS 参考图层（OpenStreetMap 数据，ODbL，© OpenStreetMap contributors）；Blue Marble 影像可作为可选底图；3D 地形和高程读数来自 ASTER GDEM 高程色彩指数（5 m 至 200 m 分级，为便于辨识而作了夸张处理）。边界按已发布的样式绘制，不代表对任何领土的立场。
- 实时事件：NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker（EONET）；事件仅供参考，并保留其原始来源链接。
- 实时：NASA EONET。事件仅供参考，不是主管机构的预警。
- Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- 天气数据来自 Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), 依据 CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). 授权。
- 可选图层（图层列表中有 7 个来源：实时、预报、观测和背景）开启时会在地图上和此处显示其提供方署名；预报是模型输出，派生指数是估计值。
图层与日期
- 夜间灯光，每日：VIIRS Black Marble（VNP46A2），NASA LAADS DAAC · 2026年10月12日
- 人口密度，2020 年：人口：哥伦比亚大学 CIESIN，世界网格化人口 v4.11（2018），NASA SEDAC， CC BY 4.0 · 静态
- 海面温度距平：GHRSST MUR25，NASA JPL PO.DAAC · 2026年10月12日
- 真彩色：VIIRS NOAA-20 校正反射率，NASA LANCE · 2026年10月13日
- 土地覆盖类型（IGBP），年度：MODIS Terra 和 Aqua 土地覆盖（MCD12Q1），NASA LP DAAC · 2024
- 增强型植被指数，滚动 8 天：MODIS Terra EVI，NASA LANCE · 2026年10月13日
Concentration is the hidden common mode across domains.
Concentration measures are designed for the 战略系统系列. Indicators such as the Herfindahl-Hirschman index are computed from UN Comtrade and OECD trade in value added data, with mirror-data differences reported; series would carry identifiers under the proposed Nexus Standards.
- Supplier mapping below the first tier, under terms.
- Concentration indicators with methods.
Supplier tier map.
团队跟踪该主题时会使用的界面：其指标、状态与决策。名称为示例，数值仅作示意。
Supplier tier map
Supplier concentration · Assembly cluster · Bill of materials BOM-089
Tier mapping
- 第 1 级18 suppliers
- 第 2 级64
- 第 3 级163
- Raw materials9
集中度
| Rare earth magnet | 76 | 5617 | None qualified | 高 |
| Gallium | 77 | 6123 | Recycling pilot | 高 |
| Copper wire | 25 | 1066 | Two qualified | 低 |
| Lithium cells | 57 | 2908 | One qualified | 中 |
Mitigation
- Dual source
- qualification 13 months
- Buffer stock
- 8 weeks
- Design change
- substitution study
- 负责人
- 采购负责人
衡量什么，以及衡量得如何。
每个指标都注明其单位、频率、背后的来源类型以及数值将附带的证据标签。此处不显示数值：数值由计划依据其自身权限提供。
| 指标 | 单位 | 节奏 | 来源类型 | 标签 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import concentration by product | Herfindahl-Hirschman index of supplier countries | 年度 | Bilateral trade data | 估算 |
| Products with a dominant supplier | count of products with one supplier above a stated share | 年度 | Trade data analysis | 估算 |
| Upstream dependence through value chains | share of foreign value added by source | 每次发布 | Inter-country input-output tables | 估算 |
| Firms with mapped tier-two suppliers | percent of surveyed firms | per survey | Business surveys | 已报告 |
| Substitutability of input | elasticity or qualitative class | 每次评估 | Engineering and economic studies | 估算 |
| Strategic stocks held | days of consumption | 每次评估 | Government and firm records | 已声明 |
Model supplier concentration as a system. Run the cascade.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile 供应链与贸易风险: the hazards it names, the 系统 and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
控制措施
NS-0章程与原则NS-3风险记录 UNI（语法、旧编码对照、分配机构）NS-9情境 UNI（部署、实例、计划实例）NS-10政策和条款（机器可读的义务：定义、约束、评估和执行）NS-11验证与监测（证据、证明、零信任符合性观测）NS-12软件、模型和 AI/ML 制品（供应链、模型卡、数据集说明）NRS-H60危害类别：供应链与流动中断（NHS-1 sys.supply-chain）NRS-X4贸易、运输与供应链风险NRS-H89危害类别：交通网络中断（NHS-1 infra.mobility）NRS-K38领域包概况：供应链与贸易（DOMAIN-038）NRS-H43危害族：畜牧业和水产养殖动物疫病（NHS-1 health.animal-health）NRS-M10方法结构：市场、贸易与供应链
观测
- IMF PortWatch port activity and chokepoint disruptions (listed for reference)
- Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (listed for reference)
- OECD Data Explorer（SDMX API）（仅列作参考）
- World Bank Open Data 和 World Development Indicators API（仅列作参考）
- Developing countries’ and least developed countries’ share of global exports
- Passenger and freight volumes, by mode of transport
示例地理范围
- The Strait of Malacca: 227 hexagonal cells
- 今夜夜间灯光与停电（VIIRS 昼夜波段），NASA GIBS
- 穿透云层的地表水，30 m（OPERA DSWx-S1 雷达），NASA GIBS
- 过去半小时降雨率（IMERG），NASA GIBS
- 地表土壤湿度（SMAP），NASA GIBS
证据来自何处。
具名公共数据集与机构记录，各自注明许可类别。依协议获得的来源仅按其条款使用，绝不再次发布。
| 来源 | 它提供什么 | 许可类别 |
|---|---|---|
| BACI international trade database (CEPII) | Harmonised bilateral trade flows at product level | Open, Etalab open licence |
| OECD Trade in Value Added (TiVA) and ICIO tables | Value added and dependencies along global value chains | Public, OECD terms |
| UN Comtrade | Bilateral trade by product | Free access with limits, UN terms |
| European Commission strategic dependencies analyses | Methods and results for identifying dependencies | Public, EU reuse policy |
| Business supply chain surveys | Firm visibility and diversification practice | Licence per survey |
How supplier concentration is modelled, measured and tested.
模型、其假设、数据和不确定性，以科学家或工程师会核查的形式呈现。结构遵循已发表的方法。所取数值仅为示意，不是研究发现。
系统模型
The couplings between the systems in supplier concentration: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
由谁决定，以及证据服务于什么。
Trade and Strategic Resources prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| 谁来决定 | 问题 | 本页面服务的证据 |
|---|---|---|
| Ministries of economy and industry | Which dependencies are strategic and how to reduce them | Dependency screens; substitutability evidence |
| Procurement leads in critical sectors | Which inputs to dual-source or stockpile | Concentration and stock evidence |
| Trade agencies | Which partnerships could diversify supply | Diversification option studies |
该主题产生的产出
- Product-level dependency screens from trade data
- Value chain dependency analyses using input-output tables
- Diversification option studies
- Methods notes on measuring concentration
What experts ask about concentration.
- How concentrated is supply at each stage of production, not only at the final stage?
- Are apparently diverse suppliers in fact dependent on a common upstream source?
- How substitutable is the input, and how long does qualifying a new supplier take?
- What buffers, such as inventory or spare capacity, exist downstream?
- How does concentration change over time with consolidation and policy?
Why concentration creates hidden risk.
Economies of scale, specialised know-how and network effects push many industries towards concentration. A few suppliers can serve the market at lower cost than many small ones. The risk lies in the tails: a fire, flood, 网络事件, insolvency or policy decision at one supplier can affect a whole industry.
Concentration is often hidden. A manufacturer may buy from several suppliers who all depend on the same upstream producer of a chemical, wafer or part. Network science describes this as a common-cause failure, and it is invisible without mapping beyond the first tier.
Concentration interacts with lean practices. Low inventories and just-in-time delivery reduce cost but leave little time to find alternatives when a key supplier fails.
方法及其局限。
- 01
Concentration indices
Measures such as market-share indices by product and country. They depend on product definitions and may miss ownership links.
- 02
Multi-tier mapping
Tracing suppliers of suppliers. Firms often do not know or will not share their deeper tiers.
- 03
网络中心性
Identifying nodes whose removal fragments the network, using 网络科学.
- 04
Optimisation of buffers
Modelling the trade-off between inventory cost and disruption risk with operations research.
Public data mostly show concentration by country, not by firm or site, so the real degree of concentration is often understated.
Where this page’s references lead.
阅读本页时所对照的机构和文件。状态和版本会变化；每个链接都指向发布机构。
问题与解答。
What is the Herfindahl-Hirschman index?
Why are deeper tiers important?
Is concentration always bad?
Is concentration always a problem?
Does the platform name concentrated suppliers?
Why look beyond the first tier?
从本页贡献证据。
报告 is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
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