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GCRI · 贸易与战略资源

面向贸易与供应的优化

Optimisation and operations research decide how to route, stock and diversify supply under cost and risk. In this field they design rerouting, size strategic stocks and choose sourcing portfolios that hold up across disruption scenarios.

提出咨询 Back to STEM foundation of Trade and Strategic Resources
01登记

Optimisation for trade and supply on the record.

方法记录STEM 方法
  1. 方法优化与运筹学
  3. 应用于贸易与战略资源
  4. 数据3 inputs
  6. 规范页面STEM 公共资源
02申请

What optimisation and operations research does here.

Optimisation and operations research develop mathematical methods for allocating resources and making decisions under constraints. They support planning and logistics in complex, interconnected 系统. In trade, resources and supply chains and industry and robotics, optimisation supports prepositioning of supplies, network investment and recovery sequencing. Robust formulations help choose options that perform acceptably across many scenarios. The canonical description is on STEM Commons.

Rerouting under chokepoint closure

Shipping network models find least-cost alternative routes when a chokepoint closes, and estimate added distance, time and capacity needed at alternative ports.

Strategic stock sizing

Stock levels for essential inputs are set by comparing holding costs with expected 短缺 costs across disruption scenarios.

Sourcing portfolio design

Supplier mixes are optimised for cost and resilience, showing how much diversification reduces exposure for a given price premium.

03模拟器

冲击在投入产出经济中的传播。

A loss of output in one sector propagates through the technical coefficients to its suppliers and customers, and recovers at the rate you set; the coefficients are teaching values, not national accounts. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction.

控制措施

最先受冲击的部门（在列表中的位置）
0
冲击规模
其产出的 30%
冲击持续时间
30 days
恢复速率
每天 0.08
模拟天数
180 days

读数

运行期间损失的产出
0.61% of a year’s output
总量与直接量之比（乘数）
1.62 times
受影响最大的其他部门
服务
其峰值不可运行性
3.9%
数字、方法与来源
部门峰值不可运行性（%）产出权重（%）
农业30.8514.6
能源2.8316.5
制造业0.5019.5
交通与港口0.3412.0
贸易0.2319.8
服务3.9117.6

方法

  1. 投入产出分析 Leontief (1936); Miller and Blair (2009), Input-Output Analysis, Cambridge University Press
  2. 不可运行性投入产出模型 Haimes and Jiang (2001), Journal of Infrastructure Systems 7
  3. 动态不可运行性与恢复 Lian and Haimes (2006), Systems Engineering 9
  4. 不确定性扇形图（参数蒙特卡罗） Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
  5. 单因素敏感性（龙卷风图） Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley

数据

The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page’s map can draw:

  • 海港 Natural Earth
  • 海上咽喉要道 Nexus（按公布坐标标注的指定海峡和运河）
  • 铁路 Natural Earth
  • 主要道路 Natural Earth
冲击在投入产出经济中的传导。示意性教学模型：它依据控件设定的数值运行，而非实测数据。方法：Input-output analysis (Leontief (1936); Miller and Blair (2009), Input-Output Analysis, Cambridge University Press)；Inoperability input-output model (Haimes and Jiang (2001), Journal of Infrastructure Systems 7)；Dynamic inoperability and recovery (Lian and Haimes (2006), Systems Engineering 9)。

贯穿六大支柱，由 Nexus Consortium 牵头

04数据

该方法使用的输入。

Datasets and records used by optimisation and operations research on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in 来源登记册.

数据角色标签
Shipping routes and port capacitiesNetwork constraints估算
Disruption scenarios不确定性模型生成
Input costs and demand目标观测
05方法与证据

How optimisation for trade and supply is modelled, measured and tested.

模型、其假设、数据和不确定性，以科学家或工程师会核查的形式呈现。结构遵循已发表的方法。所取数值仅为示意，不是研究发现。

系统模型

The couplings between the systems in optimisation for trade and supply: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.

++−+贸易产业社区经济R 增强B 平衡
Causal loop diagram from the page’s systems; signs show the direction of influence. Illustrative structure for a system dynamics or network model, not estimated couplings.
FAIR 指导原则 · GO FAIR 和 FORCE11W3C PROV · 万维网联盟关于一致处理不确定性的指南 · IPCCCEOS 分析就绪数据 · 地球观测卫星委员会
06验证

结果如何核查。

Solutions are checked for feasibility, tested through simulation and compared with historical decisions. 敏感性分析 examines how results change with parameters.

核查如何开展
Out-of-sample scenariosSolutions are tested on scenarios not used to choose them
Operator reviewRoute and capacity constraints are checked with logistics operators
Trade-off reportingCost and resilience trade-offs are shown as a frontier

Optimal solutions can be fragile when assumptions are wrong. Objectives may omit values that are hard to quantify.

07关联

依赖该方法的主题。

08管理责任

由谁维护该方法。

系统科学与建模 stewards optimisation and operations research for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.

Canonical page: Optimisation and operations research

09已关联

本页在整个联合体中通向何处。

10问题

问题与解答。

What are the limits of optimisation and operations research in this field?
Optimal solutions can be fragile when assumptions are wrong. Objectives may omit values that are hard to quantify.
结果如何核查？
Solutions are checked for feasibility, tested through simulation and compared with historical decisions. Sensitivity analysis examines how results change with parameters.
本页面上的数值是真实的吗？
The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method’s use, not a run; no result is reported here.
该方法还应用于何处？
维持社会运转的 规范方法页面 列出应用该方法的每个平台。
报告贡献

从本页贡献证据。

报告 is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

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