Skip to content

GCRI · 贸易与战略资源

贸易计量经济学

Econometrics estimates relationships in trade and price data from observed history. In this field it measures how price shocks pass from world to local markets, how trade responds to policy measures, and how disruptions affect output and prices.

提出咨询 Back to STEM foundation of Trade and Strategic Resources
01登记

Econometrics for trade on the record.

方法记录STEM 方法
  1. 方法计量经济学
  2. 管理者经济发展
  3. 应用于贸易与战略资源
  6. 规范页面STEM 公共资源
02申请

What econometrics does here.

Econometrics applies statistical methods to economic data to estimate relationships, test theories and forecast. It provides empirical evidence on how shocks and policies affect economic outcomes. In trade, resources and supply chains and industry and robotics, econometric evidence estimates how disasters, pandemics and financial shocks affect output, employment and prices. It informs the economic case for 风险. The canonical description is on STEM Commons.

价格传导

Time-series models estimate how much and how fast changes in world food and energy prices pass into domestic prices, allowing for exchange rates and policies.

Effects of trade measures

Gravity models and difference-in-differences designs estimate how tariffs, export controls and 制裁 change trade flows, including rerouting through third countries.

Disruption impacts on output

Event studies relate dated supply disruptions to changes in production and prices in the industries that depend on the disrupted input.

03模拟器

冲击在投入产出经济中的传播。

A loss of output in one sector propagates through the technical coefficients to its suppliers and customers, and recovers at the rate you set; the coefficients are teaching values, not national accounts. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction.

控制措施

最先受冲击的部门（在列表中的位置）
0
冲击规模
其产出的 30%
冲击持续时间
30 days
恢复速率
每天 0.08
模拟天数
180 days

读数

运行期间损失的产出
0.74% of a year’s output
总量与直接量之比（乘数）
1.83 times
受影响最大的其他部门
能源
其峰值不可运行性
3.8%
数字、方法与来源
部门峰值不可运行性（%）产出权重（%）
农业31.0417.0
能源3.798.5
制造业1.4118.9
交通与港口2.4620.1
贸易0.3218.1
服务2.7417.4

方法

  1. 投入产出分析 Leontief (1936); Miller and Blair (2009), Input-Output Analysis, Cambridge University Press
  2. 不可运行性投入产出模型 Haimes and Jiang (2001), Journal of Infrastructure Systems 7
  3. 动态不可运行性与恢复 Lian and Haimes (2006), Systems Engineering 9
  4. 不确定性扇形图（参数蒙特卡罗） Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
  5. 单因素敏感性（龙卷风图） Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley

数据

The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page’s map can draw:

  • 海港 Natural Earth
  • 海上咽喉要道 Nexus（按公布坐标标注的指定海峡和运河）
  • 铁路 Natural Earth
  • 主要道路 Natural Earth
冲击在投入产出经济中的传导。示意性教学模型：它依据控件设定的数值运行，而非实测数据。方法：Input-output analysis (Leontief (1936); Miller and Blair (2009), Input-Output Analysis, Cambridge University Press)；Inoperability input-output model (Haimes and Jiang (2001), Journal of Infrastructure Systems 7)；Dynamic inoperability and recovery (Lian and Haimes (2006), Systems Engineering 9)。

贯穿六大支柱，由 Nexus Consortium 牵头

04数据

该方法使用的输入。

Datasets and records used by econometrics on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in 来源登记册.

数据角色标签
Trade flows成果已发布统计
Price series传导已发布统计
Trade policy measure databasesTreatments已报告
Industrial productionImpacts已发布统计
05方法与证据

How econometrics for trade is modelled, measured and tested.

模型、其假设、数据和不确定性，以科学家或工程师会核查的形式呈现。结构遵循已发表的方法。所取数值仅为示意，不是研究发现。

系统模型

The couplings between the systems in econometrics for trade: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.

++−+贸易产业社区经济R 增强B 平衡
Causal loop diagram from the page’s systems; signs show the direction of influence. Illustrative structure for a system dynamics or network model, not estimated couplings.
FAIR 指导原则 · GO FAIR 和 FORCE11W3C PROV · 万维网联盟关于一致处理不确定性的指南 · IPCCCEOS 分析就绪数据 · 地球观测卫星委员会
06验证

结果如何核查。

Models are assessed through specification tests, robustness checks and out-of-sample performance. Results are compared across datasets and methods.

核查如何开展
Pre-trend testsTreated and comparison flows are checked for parallel trends before measures
Robustness to specificationResults are compared across model specifications
Structural break testsRelationships are tested for change over time

Endogeneity, measurement error and structural change can bias estimates. Relationships may shift under extreme conditions.

07关联

依赖该方法的主题。

08管理责任

由谁维护该方法。

经济发展 stewards econometrics for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.

Canonical page: Econometrics

09已关联

本页在整个联合体中通向何处。

10问题

问题与解答。

What are the limits of econometrics in this field?
Endogeneity, measurement error and structural change can bias estimates. Relationships may shift under extreme conditions.
结果如何核查？
Models are assessed through specification tests, robustness checks and out-of-sample performance. Results are compared across datasets and methods.
本页面上的数值是真实的吗？
The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method’s use, not a run; no result is reported here.
该方法还应用于何处？
维持社会运转的 规范方法页面 列出应用该方法的每个平台。
报告贡献

从本页贡献证据。

报告 is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

GCRI贸易与战略资源战略系统情景与压力测试

切勿发送个人数据、敏感基础设施细节或您无权分享的任何内容。贡献在使用前会经过审查；发送贡献不赋予署名权或编辑权，赞助也绝不能换取研究结论。

贸易与战略资源

带来一种方法、一个数据集或一个问题。

信息和咨询现已开放。每项咨询都会获得一个编号，并告知下一步；申请、付款、算力分配和注册只有在相应团队、条款和审查能力就绪时才会开放。

提出一种方法 查看全部联系途径
法律

本网站上的地图、数据和图表仅作为背景和一般信息展示。它们不是建议、预测或预警；信息的局限见免责声明和数据说明。