G01 · EVIDENCE · methodsGCRI dossier · service level R0
GCRIWater NexusEstablished
Methods and uncertainty

Methods and uncertainty

The methods Water Nexus relies on, the assumptions they carry and the limits of what they can show.

Publisher
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation
Field
Water, Climate and hazards, Critical infrastructure
Status
Established
Service level
R0: information and enquiries
Country report edition, illustrative interfaceAn illustrative report edition: the annual flagship of the Country Systems Risk and Resilience Report with its chapters, the evidence labels every finding carries, a review chain from methods to publisher sign-off, and a version history in which a correction creates a new version.NEXUS REPORTS · COUNTRY SERIESCountry Systems Riskand Resilience ReportRISK, INNOVATION AND THE NATIONAL PORTFOLIOQ4 · ANNUAL FLAGSHIP01Executive country posture02Systemic-risk architecture03Water, energy, food, health04Lifelines and supply chains05Digital dependence06National innovation posture07Scenario findings08National Portfolio09Methods and correctionsEVIDENCE LABELSOBSERVEDOFFICIALESTIMATEDMODELLEDFORECASTSCENARIOEXPERTUNKNOWNEVERY FINDING CARRIES ONE LABELREVIEWMethodsDomain reviewRights checkFunding disclosedPublisher sign-offVERSIONSv1.0Releasedv1.1Correctionv1.2In reviewNO SILENT EDITS

Water NexusWireframe of the working environment, not a live screen. Names and values are placeholders.

STEM methods
9
Canonical methods this field applies
Topics
8
Subject pages in the field
Counterparts
10
Platforms in shared fields at GCRI, GRF and GRA
Report series
3
Nexus Reports series it contributes to
01Methods

The methods in use.

MethodSTEM Commons page
Hydrology and water scienceCanonical method page
Water and environmental engineeringCanonical method page
Geospatial information systemsCanonical method page
Earth observation and remote sensingCanonical method page
Sensors, IoT and observation networksCanonical method page
Forecasting and time-series analysisCanonical method page
Extreme value theory and tail riskCanonical method page
Spatial statistics and geostatisticsCanonical method page
Uncertainty quantification and model validationCanonical method page
02Canvas

Draft to published version.

Canvas · draft to published versionDesign, not a record
How a finding on Water Nexus is reviewed before it is publishedA draft carries its sources and labels; an evidence check, independent review and an editorial decision gate publication; corrections create a new version and renew the record. Design of the pipeline, not a record of a run.runs / water-nexus / review-pipelineDESIGN RUN+−FITPLAYLAYOUT · LRAUTHORWATER NEXUS · CHECKSREVIEWRECORDREADERSDraftDATASETauthor · sources citedlabels attachedDONEEvidence checkTASKevery value tracedlabel auditDONEMethod checkMODELSTEM Commons pageassumptions visibleDONEIndependent revi…GATEconflicts declaredreviewer named on recordRUNNINGEditorial decisi…GATEGCRI editoraccept · revise · declineQUEUEDPublished versionDATASETDOI · licencelimits attachedQUEUEDCorrectionTASKnew versionnever a silent editQUEUEDUse by authorityDECISIONunder its own rulescitation, not endorsementAUTHORITYRUN TIMELINE · ONE REVIEW WAVEDraftCheckReviewDecidePublishDraftEvidence checkMethod checkIndependent reviewEditorial decisionPublished versionCorrectionNOWINSPECTOR · SELECTED NODEIndependent review · runningOWNERreviewer not involved in the workINPUTSdraft, evidence and method checksOUTPUTSreview recordEVIDENCEdeclared conflicts outUNLOCKSeditorial decision

Fig.How a finding is reviewed: evidence and method checks, independent review and an editorial decision gate publication; corrections create a new version. Design of the pipeline, not a record of a run.

03Field

Water Nexus on the map.

Where this page’s subject sits in the world: boundaries and context now, the field layers when the interactive map loads.

Field · world viewDesign figure until live
World map, Equal Earth projectionLand and country boundaries from Natural Earth at 1:110 million, drawn in the Equal Earth projection with a fifteen degree graticule. The interactive map with its layers loads through the Nexus Foundry plugin.
GCRI · Water Nexus · fieldDESIGN FIGURE

MapWorld map in the Equal Earth projection, land and boundaries from Natural Earth (public domain). The interactive map loads through the Nexus Foundry plugin (globe or flat view).

04Uncertainty

How uncertainty is reported.

  1. 01

    State assumptions

    Each analysis lists its assumptions and the data it depends on.

  2. 02

    Quantify where possible

    Ranges and confidence are reported alongside central estimates.

  3. 03

    Validate and compare

    Models are checked against observations and, where possible, against other models.

  4. 04

    Publish limits

    What an analysis cannot show is stated beside what it can.

05Questions

Questions and answers.

Are the methods open?
Method descriptions are public on the STEM Commons. Code and data follow their own licences and access terms, listed in the source register.
Water Nexus

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