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GCRI · Fields across the Consortium

Methods and modelling

Methods and modelling covers the quantitative toolkit for systemic risk: probability and uncertainty, networks and complex systems, scenarios and stress tests, optimisation and decision analysis, and the discipline of validating each.

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01Three mandates

The field, seen three ways.

GRF

Governance and dialogue

No platform yet in this field.

GRA

Financial understanding

Actuarial and Quantitative Risk.

02The systemic question

Models fit for coupled, tail-driven problems.

Systemic risk is tail risk with dependence: the losses that matter come from rare combinations. Methods that assume independence or thin tails understate it. The field’s working questions: how to represent dependence (copulas, networks, agent interactions), how to explore deep uncertainty (scenario discovery, robust decision-making), and how to validate models of events that have not happened.

ProblemMethod familySTEM Commons page
Tail dependenceExtreme value theory, copulasExtreme value
ContagionNetwork modelsNetwork science
Deep uncertaintyScenario discovery, robust decision-makingScenario and stress testing
Parameter uncertaintyBayesian inference, ensemblesUncertainty quantification
03Process

How the process runs.

Process

Methods and modelling: Build, sign and accept

An admitted mission becomes a cycle project; the build is pinned, verified and signed, and the Global Risks Forum (GRF) records acceptance for exercise, not permission to deploy.

  1. 01 Request and sources

    1. 01Admitted mission becomes a cycle projectRecord · Universe to FoundryAn admitted mission becomes a cycle project with a decision case.
    2. 02Qualify data sources and resourcesStep · the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)GCRI qualifies data sources and resource offers and builds the scenario models. An offer is not an allocation.

  2. 02 Build and verify

    1. 03Source snapshotRecord · NXS-FAC (blueprints, builds and signing)The snapshot pins the commit, dependencies and generator versions.
    2. 04Build contractRecord · NXS-FAC (blueprints, builds and signing)The build contract declares the artefact kind, environment and reproducibility envelope.
    3. 05Integrate and buildModel · GCRIGCRI integrates software and data, signs builds, and tests security and interoperability.
    4. 06Verification suiteGate · NXS-FAC (blueprints, builds and signing)Required and advisory checks stay separate. Reproducibility needs pinned inputs, declared nondeterminism and independent rebuilds.

  3. 03 Sign and admit

    1. 07Sign the exact artefactStep · NXS-FAC (blueprints, builds and signing)NXS-FAC builds, attests and requests a signature via a scoped signer identity. It holds no key material.
    2. 08Package admissionStep · NXS-NXQ (software, models and capability lifecycle)NXS-NXQ receives the signed package and keeps admission evidence that binds the task, data class, evaluation suite and expiration.

  4. 04 Accept

    1. 09Core Build ReportRecord · GCRIThe Core Build Report is the go or no-go record. Universe assembles the Core and holds the decision for the exercise.
    2. 10G3 · Build accepted for exerciseGate · The Global Risks ForumGRF records whether the build is accepted for exercise. A signed build or release candidate is not permission to deploy to production.

The programme year · NXS-FAC · UniverseDesigned programme process, not a record of operation. No cycle has run and every programme is at service level R0. A gate is a programme decision, never a public-authority approval, certification or deployment authorisation. The record order follows the Builds and Releases room lists of NXS-FAC.

04Frameworks

Validation references.

Framework or bodyWhat it governs or supplies
IEC 31010Selection of risk assessment techniques
Model risk management practice in finance (for example supervisory model risk guidance)Model inventory, validation and governance
EQUATOR reporting guidelines including TRIPODTransparent reporting of prediction models
05Couplings

Methods across platforms.

06Grounding

The methods behind the field.

07Sources

Where this page’s references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

08Questions

Questions and answers.

Why does GCRI host field gateways?
GCRI hosts the shared references of the Consortium, including the STEM Commons and the field gateways, so each field has one place that links all three institutions’ work.
ReportsContribute

Contribute evidence from this page.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

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The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

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Information and enquiries are open today. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.

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