Distribution shift analysis
Model performance is compared between training data and deployment data to detect shifts in inputs or labels that reduce accuracy, with monitoring set up to catch drift.
GCRI · Artificial Intelligence and Autonomous Systems
Machine learning behaviour
Artificial intelligence and machine learning is the technology this platform stewards for the network. Here it is studied as a technology whose behaviour must be understood: how models learn from data, generalise, fail outside their training distribution and are adapted to specific uses.
01Register
Machine learning behaviour on the record.
Method recordSTEM method
- MethodArtificial intelligence and machine learning
- StewardArtificial Intelligence and Autonomous Systems
- Applied inArtificial Intelligence and Autonomous Systems
- Data3 inputs
- Checks3 validation steps
- Canonical pageSTEM Commons
02Application
What artificial intelligence and machine learning does here.
Artificial intelligence and machine learning develop algorithms that learn patterns from data to classify, predict or generate outputs. They are increasingly used for hazard detection, forecasting and decision support, and are themselves a source of risk. In artificial intelligence and data and compute, machine learning can scale detection and forecasting across interconnected systems. Its own failure modes must be weighed when automated outputs inform consequential decisions. The canonical description is on the STEM Commons.
Fine-tuning for a specific use
General models are adapted to a narrow task with curated data, and the adapted model is evaluated for both task performance and retained safety behaviour.
Interpretability methods
Feature attribution and probing methods are used to examine which inputs drive a model’s outputs, with their limits as explanations stated.
03Simulator
A threshold model of collective behaviour.
Each agent acts once enough of its contacts have; small changes in the mean threshold or the early movers decide whether the behaviour stays local or cascades through the population. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction.
Controls
- Mean threshold (share of neighbours)
- 18%
- Spread of thresholds
- 8 points
- Early movers
- 2.0% of people
- Contacts per person
- 8
Readouts
- Share who acted in the end
- 100%
- Global cascade
- Yes
- Steps to settle
- 10
Numbers, methods and sources
| Step | Share who have acted (%) |
|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 |
| 2 | 16.0 |
| 3 | 28.5 |
| 4 | 47.0 |
| 5 | 65.3 |
| 6 | 80.3 |
| 7 | 93.0 |
| 8 | 99.3 |
| 9 | 100.0 |
| 10 | 100.0 |
Methods
- Threshold models of collective behaviour Granovetter (1978), American Journal of Sociology 83
- Global cascades on random networks Watts (2002), PNAS 99
- Complex contagions Centola and Macy (2007), American Journal of Sociology 113
- One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
Data
No observed data enters this model: it runs on the teaching values set by the controls, to be replaced with a programme’s own evidence.
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs
- Built in Artificial Intelligence and Autonomous Systems in Foundry
- Tested at Artificial Intelligence and Autonomous Systems in Universe
- Codified in Digital, Cyber and AI in Standards
- Published in Artificial Intelligence and Autonomous Systems in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Technology and Digital Systems in Academy
04Data
What the method consumes.
Datasets and records used by artificial intelligence and machine learning on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in the source register.
| Data | Role | Label |
|---|---|---|
| Training and validation datasets with documentation | Model development | DECLARED |
| Deployment input logs | Shift detection | OBSERVED |
| Benchmark suites | Comparison | REPORTED |
05Methods and evidence
How machine learning behaviour is modelled, measured and tested.
The model, its assumptions, its data and its uncertainty, in the form a scientist or engineer would check. Structures follow published methods. The values drawn are illustrative, not findings.
Model, equations and assumptions
The model structure used for machine learning behaviour, the assumptions it makes and how each is tested.
Risk of element i
Ri = f(Hi, Ei, Vi, Ci)hazard, exposure, vulnerability and coping capacityExpected annual loss
EAL = ∑k pk · Lkover events k with annual probability pkCoupled systems
xt+1 = A xt + B ut + εtA carries the couplings, u the shock, ε the error| Assumption | Why it is made | How it is tested |
|---|---|---|
| Hazard and exposure are independent within an event | Keeps the loss integral tractable | Compare with a copula fit on joint records |
| Couplings are linear near the operating point | Lets shocks propagate through A | Perturb beyond the linear range and compare |
| Vulnerability curves transfer between places | Local curves are rarely available | Validate against observed losses where they exist |
- Inputs
- versioned datasets with provenance
- Outputs
- distributions, never single numbers
- Code
- released with the model card and tests
- Reproduction
- same data, code, environment and seed
FAIR guiding principles · GO FAIR and FORCE11W3C PROV · World Wide Web ConsortiumGuidance on consistent treatment of uncertainties · IPCCCEOS Analysis Ready Data · Committee on Earth Observation Satellites
06Validation
How results are checked.
Models are evaluated on held-out data that respects spatial, temporal and group structure. Robustness, calibration and fairness are tested alongside accuracy.
| Check | How it is done |
|---|---|
| Held-out evaluation | Models are evaluated on data not used for training or tuning |
| Dataset documentation | Training data carry datasheets on origin, consent and limits |
| Drift monitoring | Deployed models are monitored for input and performance drift |
Performance degrades when deployment conditions differ from training data. Models can encode biases and fail without clear warning on rare events.
07Connections
Topics that rely on this method.
08Stewardship
Who maintains the method.
Artificial Intelligence and Autonomous Systems stewards artificial intelligence and machine learning for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.
09Questions
Questions and answers.
What are the limits of artificial intelligence and machine learning in this field?
Performance degrades when deployment conditions differ from training data. Models can encode biases and fail without clear warning on rare events.
How are results checked?
Models are evaluated on held-out data that respects spatial, temporal and group structure. Robustness, calibration and fairness are tested alongside accuracy.
Are the values on this page real?
The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method’s use, not a run; no result is reported here.
Where else is this method applied?
The canonical method page lists every platform that applies it.
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