GCRI · Artificial Intelligence and Autonomous Systems
Compute and energy
Training and running AI requires specialised chips, data centres, electricity, cooling water and network capacity. Demand is growing quickly and concentrating in particular places, with effects on power grids, water resources and emissions. This page sets out how AI compute uses energy and water, how those uses are measured, and what evidence serves the grid operators, planners and policymakers who must accommodate them.
How the work runs.
Model registry
Compute and energy · Model registry · Release gate
Models
| M-904 triage assistant | Public service | High | 19 of 24 suites | Blocked |
| M-890 flood nowcast | Science | Medium | 10 of 12 | Released |
| M-955 document search | Internal | Low | 7 of 8 | Released |
| M-242 agent planner | Agentic | High | 13 of 16 | Evaluating |
Model card
- Intended use
- triage support, human decides
- Out of scope
- eligibility decisions
- Known limits
- lower accuracy on rare cases
- Owner
- Model owner
Incident log
- D-28INCHallucinated citation in summary
- D-6MITRetrieval grounding added
- D-4INCPrompt injection via uploaded file
- D-1MITTool permission narrowed
Evaluation scores
vs release threshold
Fig.Model registry: example names and illustrative values, not a record or a live system.
Compute and energy: how the risk develops.
Compute concentration, efficiency and demand. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Training and inference both use energy
Training a large model uses a large amount of electricity once; inference uses less per query but runs continuously at scale, and can dominate over a model’s life.
Data centres strain local grids
Large data centres need connections comparable to industrial plants. Clusters in one region can outpace grid and generation build-out.
Cooling uses water
Evaporative cooling and electricity generation consume water. Where water is scarce, data centre siting competes with other uses.
Efficiency and demand move together
Hardware and software efficiency improve quickly, but lower costs can raise total use. Net energy demand depends on both.
Energy now in East Asia.
Night lights, population density and land cover over East Asia, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Energy now, for this page
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2) (NASA LAADS DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA LAADS DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite radiance, corrected for moonlight and atmosphere
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-12
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite night-time radiance for the date shown; lights are a proxy for electricity use and outages, not a measurement of supply or access.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Estimated
- Source
- Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))
- Provider
- NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0
- Vintage
- null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Modelled (latest month GIBS publishes)
- Source
- MERRA-2 (NASA GMAO / GES DISC)
- Provider
- NASA GMAO / GES DISC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- monthly; Reanalysis model; latest month GIBS publishes
- Newest at build
- 2026-07-01
- Resolution
- about 2 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Reanalysis model estimate of monthly mean incoming sunlight over land; an indicator of solar resource, not a site yield assessment.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite image
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Modelled (latest year GIBS publishes)
- Source
- MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1) (NASA LP DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA LP DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- yearly; Satellite classification; latest year GIBS publishes
- Newest at build
- 2024-01-01
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite land cover classes for the year shown, including croplands; a classification with known errors, not a farm register.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite retrieval; clouds leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite skin temperature of the ground on the day shown, an indicator of cooling demand; not air temperature or a heat warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Energy now, framed on East Asia.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · NASA/NOAA VIIRS · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERTSources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- MERRA-2 reanalysis, NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office; distributed by the NASA GES DISC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Observed (EO): NASA/NOAA VIIRS (Suomi NPP). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- Past year, daily temperature (ERA5 via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026.
- Past year, daily temperature and sunshine (NASA POWER): These data were obtained from the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) POWER Project funded through the NASA Earth Science/Applied Science Program..
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (10 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Incoming sunlight at the surface over land, monthly mean: MERRA-2, NASA GMAO / GES DISC · July 2026
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
- Land surface temperature, day: VIIRS NOAA-20, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
AI compute couples to energy and water.
- EnergyCouplingData-centre load grows quickly on specific grid nodes.What to watchConnection queue and load
- WaterCouplingSome cooling designs consume water.What to watchWater use per unit of energy
- BiodiversityCouplingSiting of data centres and power affects land and habitats.What to watchLand use of new sites
Compute and energy analyses are designed for the Foresight Outlook series. The IEA’s Energy and AI report (2025) gives scenario ranges for data-centre electricity demand.
- Measured energy and water use of computing facilities.
- Grid connection studies.
A cascade through interdependent networks.
A hazard footprint takes out co-located assets in every layer; fragmentation, dependency between layers and overload of the survivors then spread the failure. The 3D view separates the layers by depth. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction. The map on this page shows East Asia; the model itself is not tied to a place.
Controls
- Assets per layer
- 18
- Hazard footprint
- 8% of area
- Assets that depend on another layer
- 60%
- Spare capacity (tolerance)
- 30%
Readouts
- Assets hit by the hazard
- 6%
- Assets still working
- 20%
- Amplification of the initial damage
- 14.3 times
- Steps to settle
- 4
Numbers, methods and sources
| Step | Data centres working (%) | Networks working (%) | Power working (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89 | 94 | 100 |
| 1 | 44 | 44 | 100 |
| 2 | 6 | 22 | 78 |
| 3 | 6 | 22 | 39 |
| 4 | 6 | 22 | 33 |
Methods
- Interdependent networks Buldyrev and others (2010), Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks, Nature 464
- Overload cascades Motter and Lai (2002), Physical Review E 66
- Betweenness load Brandes (2001), Journal of Mathematical Sociology 25
- Multilayer networks Kivela and others (2014), Journal of Complex Networks 2
- Infrastructure interdependencies Rinaldi, Peerenboom and Kelly (2001), IEEE Control Systems 21(6)
- Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
- One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
Data
The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page’s map can draw:
- Major roads Natural Earth
- Railways Natural Earth
- Seaports Natural Earth
- Airports Natural Earth
- Urban extents Natural Earth
- Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band) NASA/NOAA VIIRS (Suomi NPP) · register nasa.gibs.context-live-layers
- Natural events (NASA EONET) NASA EONET · register nasa.eonet.events
Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium
- Experiments Labs
- Built in Artificial Intelligence and Autonomous Systems in Foundry
- Tested at Artificial Intelligence and Autonomous Systems in Universe
- Codified in Digital, Cyber and AI in Standards
- Published in Artificial Intelligence and Autonomous Systems in Reports
- Taught in Faculty of Technology and Digital Systems in Academy
What is measured, and how well.
Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.
| Indicator | Unit | Cadence | Source type | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data centre electricity consumption | terawatt hours per year | annual | Energy agency estimates | ESTIMATED |
| Power usage effectiveness | ratio of facility to IT energy | annual | Operator disclosures | DECLARED |
| Water usage effectiveness | litres per kilowatt hour | annual | Operator disclosures | DECLARED |
| Grid connection requests from data centres | megawatts requested | quarterly | Grid operator queues | Published statistics |
| Training compute of notable models | floating point operations | per model | Compiled model databases | ESTIMATED |
| Energy per inference | watt hours per query | per measurement | Measurement studies | ESTIMATED |
Model compute and energy as a system. Run the cascade.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile AI and autonomous systems risk standards: the hazards it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
Hazards
- Dam failure
- Sea-ice loss
- Coastal erosion (set off downstream)
- River flood (set off downstream)
- Flash flood (set off downstream)
- Mass displacement (set off downstream)
- Biodiversity loss (set off downstream)
- Widespread power outage (set off downstream)
- Water supply shortfall (set off downstream)
- Arctic winter sea-ice collapse (set off downstream)
- Polar vortex disruption (set off downstream)
Systems and couplings
- AI and autonomous systems risk standards
- Cyber and digital risk standards Common driver
- Information integrity and trust Cascade
- Frontier technology risk standards Feedback
- Financial stability and prudential risk Common driver
Controls
NS-0Constitution and principlesNS-10Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)NS-11Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)NS-12Software, model and AI/ML artefacts (supply chain, model cards, dataset sheets)NRS-H100Hazard family: Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons (NHS-1 tech.autonomy-weapons)NRS-H53Hazard family: Cyber-physical disruption (NHS-1 cyber.cyber-physical)NRS-H61Hazard family: Cascading failure (NHS-1 sys.cascade)NRS-H113Hazard family: Financial-system fragility (NHS-1 soc.financial-system)NRS-A8AI-ready risk data and model packagingNRS-H54Hazard family: Signal and platform disruption (NHS-1 cyber.platform)
Observation
- OSV open source vulnerability database (listed for reference)
- Our World in Data datasets (listed for reference)
- Research and development expenditure as a proportion of GDP
Example geography
- North America: 243 hexagonal cells
- Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
- Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
- Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
- Vegetation disturbance alerts, 30 m (OPERA DIST-ALERT), NASA GIBS
Where the evidence comes from.
Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.
| Source | What it gives | Licence class |
|---|---|---|
| IEA Energy and AI analysis and data centre electricity estimates | Global and regional data centre electricity demand | Licence per product (to check) |
| Epoch AI data on notable models and compute | Training compute and hardware trends | Open, CC BY 4.0 |
| TOP500 and Green500 lists | Performance and energy efficiency of supercomputers | Public, TOP500 terms |
| Grid operator interconnection queues and planning reports | Requested connections and load forecasts | Public records, terms per operator |
| Operator sustainability reports | Energy, water and emissions disclosures | Public documents, terms per operator |
The sector signature of compute and energy.
The sectors compute and energy touches and how strongly they depend on each other: what a study has to observe and model together.
Signature
Energy and its partners
Energy gives power for transport and telecoms to infrastructure (0.8), pumping and treatment to water (0.5) and fertiliser, machinery and cold chains to food (0.5).
W · E · I · F · H · B
- Sectors
- 4 of 6
- Relations
- 6 of 15
- Coupling
- 0.46 share of total
Strongest relations in play
- Energy → Infrastructure · power for transport and telecoms0.8
- Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
- Water → Food · irrigation0.8
- Infrastructure → Water · pipes, dams and treatment works0.6
Who decides, and what the evidence serves.
Artificial Intelligence and Autonomous Systems prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| Who decides | The question | Evidence this page serves |
|---|---|---|
| Grid operators and energy regulators | How to plan generation and connections for data centre load | Load analyses; connection queues |
| Water authorities and planners | Where data centre water use is acceptable | Water footprint evidence |
| Organisations deploying AI | How to reduce the footprint of their AI use | Estimation methods; efficiency evidence |
Outputs this topic produces
- Energy and water footprint estimation methods for AI workloads
- Regional data centre load analyses
- Efficiency trend summaries
- Evidence notes for grid and water planning
How compute and energy is modelled, measured and tested.
The model, its assumptions, its data and its uncertainty, in the form a scientist or engineer would check. Structures follow published methods. The values drawn are illustrative, not findings.
System model
The couplings between the systems in compute and energy: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
What researchers ask about compute.
- How concentrated are chip manufacturing, cloud capacity and frontier model training, and what follows from that?
- How much energy and water do training and inference use, and how is that changing?
- How much do efficiency gains offset growth in demand?
- Who has access to compute for research and public-interest uses?
Concentration, efficiency and demand.
Advanced chip fabrication is concentrated in very few facilities, and a small number of cloud providers supply much of the compute for AI. That concentration creates shared exposure to disruption, from natural hazards to export controls, and shapes who can build large models.
Hardware and algorithms become more efficient over time, but cheaper computation tends to increase total use, an effect known as the rebound or Jevons effect. Data centres draw large, steady electricity loads that can strain local grids and, where they use evaporative cooling, water supplies. Inference, the everyday use of models, can come to outweigh training in total energy use.
Measuring compute and its footprint.
- 01
Energy accounting
Estimating energy per training run and per query, using high-performance, cloud and edge computing. Providers disclose little, so estimates carry wide uncertainty.
- 02
Supply-chain mapping
Tracing chips, materials and facilities to identify concentration and single points of failure.
- 03
Scenario analysis
Projecting demand under different assumptions about efficiency and adoption, with probability and statistics. Projections are scenarios, not forecasts.
- 04
Access studies
Assessing which researchers and institutions can obtain compute, and on what terms.
How it is studied, and what the methods cannot say.
- 01High-performance, cloud and edge computingCompute access for public research · Energy measurement of workloadsApplied here
- 02Artificial intelligence and machine learningDistribution shift analysis · Fine-tuning for a specific use · Interpretability methodsApplied here
- 03Probability and statisticsUncertainty on benchmark scores · Calibration assessment · Audit samplingApplied here
Where this page’s references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
Questions and answers.
How much energy does AI use?
What is power usage effectiveness?
Why does AI use water?
Will efficiency gains reduce AI’s energy use?
Why does water matter for data centres?
Does the platform allocate compute?
Can energy figures be trusted?
Contribute evidence from this page.
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