Protected area effectiveness
Protected sites are matched to unprotected sites with similar slope, remoteness and pressure, and differences in forest loss or species trends are estimated with sensitivity to hidden bias.
GCRI · Biodiversity Nexus
保护工作的影响评估
Conservation and restoration spend public and private money on the expectation that interventions work. Causal inference tests that expectation, estimating what protected areas, payments, restoration and policy changes achieved compared with what would have happened without them. Without that comparison, background trends are easily mistaken for success.
02申请
What causal inference and impact evaluation does here.
Causal inference and impact evaluation develop methods to determine whether and how interventions or exposures cause outcomes. They separate genuine effects from correlation. In biodiversity and nature, climate and hazards and oceans and coasts, causal inference shows which 风险 measures actually work. It supports allocating resources toward interventions with demonstrated effect across connected risks. The canonical description is on STEM Commons.
Restoration and payment programme evaluation
Difference-in-differences and synthetic control designs compare enrolled land with comparable land outside a programme, before and after it starts.
Policy and supply-chain commitments
Staggered adoption of moratoria, regulations or zero-deforestation commitments is used to estimate effects on clearing and on displacement of clearing to other areas.
03方法与证据
How impact evaluation for conservation is modelled, measured and tested.
模型、其假设、数据和不确定性，以科学家或工程师会核查的形式呈现。结构遵循已发表的方法。所取数值仅为示意，不是研究发现。
地球观测链
How a satellite or sensor record becomes evidence on impact evaluation for conservation, and where each step adds uncertainty.
- 01 · 获取轨道、传感器和重访周期不确定性：云层和轨道造成的缺口
- 02 · 校准辐射和几何不确定性：传感器漂移
- 03 · 更正大气与地形不确定性：气溶胶和坡度假设
- 04 · 检索或分类变量或类别不确定性：模型和训练误差
- 05 · 验证对照地面实况不确定性：样本设计与规模
- 06 · 发布附误差线和沿袭信息不确定性：明确说明，从不隐藏
FAIR 指导原则 · GO FAIR 和 FORCE11W3C PROV · 万维网联盟关于一致处理不确定性的指南 · IPCCCEOS 分析就绪数据 · 地球观测卫星委员会
04数据
该方法使用的输入。
Datasets and records used by causal inference and impact evaluation on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in 来源登记册.
| 数据 | 角色 | 标签 |
|---|---|---|
| Global Forest Change and national land-cover series | Outcome measures | 观测 |
| Protected Planet boundaries and designation dates | Treatment timing and extent | 已声明 |
| Programme enrolment records | Treatment assignment | 已报告 |
| Terrain, access and land-use covariates | Matching and adjustment | 估算 |
05流程
流程如何运行。
Process explorer · Process
Impact evaluation for conservation: PRISMA 2020 review reporting
10 steps·4 个阶段
流程
Impact evaluation for conservation: PRISMA 2020 review reporting
PRISMA 2020 是系统综述的报告指南；各步骤依循其核查清单，而非强制顺序，且没有任何 Nexus 文件采纳它。
01 Plan
- 01注册与协议记录 · 审查团队该指南要求说明注册信息、方案的获取方式以及任何修订。
- 02资格标准记录 · 审查团队该指南要求说明纳入与排除标准以及研究的分组方式。
02 查找与遴选
- 03检索：来源与策略步骤 · 审查团队该指南要求说明信息来源与完整的检索策略。它并不规定使用哪些来源。
- 04研究的遴选步骤 · 审查团队该指南要求说明如何判定研究符合纳入条件，包括有多少名审查人进行筛选。它并不规定审查人数量。
- 05流程图记录流程图显示检索到的记录数量、纳入的研究数量以及排除的理由。
03 分析
- 06数据收集步骤 · 审查团队该指南要求说明如何从报告中收集数据以及寻求了哪些数据项。
- 07偏倚风险步骤 · 审查团队该指南要求说明评估偏倚风险所使用的方法与工具。
- 08综合模型 · 审查团队该指南要求说明效应量指标与综合方法。它并不规定必须进行荟萃分析。
- 09证据的确定性步骤 · 审查团队该指南要求说明评估确定性所用的方法，并按结局报告结果。它并未指定分级量表。
04 报告
- 10审查报告记录该指南帮助作者报告开展综述的原因、所做的工作以及所得的发现。
报告Outline of an externally published reporting guideline, not a Nexus process and not a record of operation. PRISMA 2020 mainly covers reviews of intervention effects. No Nexus page names it. Every programme is at service level R0.
06验证
结果如何核查。
Identification assumptions are probed through placebo tests, falsification checks and 敏感性分析. Replication across settings tests external validity.
| 核查 | 如何开展 |
|---|---|
| Covariate balance | Treated and comparison units are compared on observed characteristics before effects are estimated |
| Placebo and pre-trend tests | Effects are tested in periods and places where none should exist |
| Sensitivity to hidden bias | Results state how strong an unobserved confounder would need to be to change the conclusion |
| Spillover and leakage | Neighbouring areas are examined for displaced pressure |
Unobserved confounding and spillovers can bias estimates. Effects found in one context may not transfer to another.
07关联
依赖该方法的主题。
08管理责任
由谁维护该方法。
经济发展 stewards causal inference and impact evaluation for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.
09已关联
本页在整个联合体中通向何处。
10问题
问题与解答。
What are the limits of causal inference and impact evaluation in this field?
Unobserved confounding and spillovers can bias estimates. Effects found in one context may not transfer to another.
结果如何核查？
Identification assumptions are probed through placebo tests, falsification checks and sensitivity analysis. Replication across settings tests external validity.
本页面上的数值是真实的吗？
The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method’s use, not a run; no result is reported here.
该方法还应用于何处？
维持社会运转的 规范方法页面 列出应用该方法的每个平台。
报告贡献
从本页贡献证据。
Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
GCRIBiodiversity Nexus全球部门风险与韧性观测站信号
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法律
法律文件。
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