GCRI · Global challenges
Climate and hazards
Floods, droughts, heatwaves, storms, wildfires and earthquakes are hazards. Exposure, vulnerability and preparation decide whether they become disasters. A warming climate shifts several hazards and makes the past a weaker guide. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) states what can be forecast, what can only be bounded by scenarios, and what remains unknown. Part of global challenges.
01Contents
Climate and hazards in seven parts.
In this dossier7 parts
- 01The challengeHazards are changing faster than the records that describe them
- 02Hazard measuresHow each hazard is measured, and the reference that sets the measure
- 03A changing baselineWhy a warming climate breaks the assumptions inside hazard estimates
- 04GCRI’s partWhat GCRI contributes on hazards, and what it leaves to the agencies
- 05Limits of predictionForecasts, projections and scenarios answer different questions
- 06MethodsThe science behind hazard evidence
- 07Across the programmeGovernance and finance views of the same hazards
02The challenge
Hazards are changing faster than the records that describe them.
Non-stationarity
The past is a weaker guide
Return periods estimated from historical records assume a stable climate. Where that assumption fails, design standards and insurance estimates drift from reality.
Compound events
Hazards that coincide
Heat with drought, storm surge with river flooding, or wildfire followed by debris flows do more damage together than separately.
Exposure
Where people and assets are
Growth in floodplains, coasts and fire-prone land often matters as much for losses as changes in the hazard itself.
03Geography
Climate signals worldwide.
Daytime surface heat, rain and marine heat across the world, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Climate signals, for this page
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (persistent cloud still leaves gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- 8-day; Satellite 8-day composite; persistent cloud still leaves gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-09-14
- Resolution
- about 1 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite skin temperature of the ground over the 8 days ending on the date shown, a heat exposure indicator; not air temperature, heat index or a heat warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Estimated
- Source
- GPM IMERG (NASA GES DISC)
- Provider
- NASA GES DISC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite estimate, near real time
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-12
- Resolution
- about 2 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite estimate, near real time. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- GHRSST MUR25 (NASA JPL PO.DAAC)
- Provider
- NASA JPL PO.DAAC
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite analysis
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-12
- Resolution
- about 2 km grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite analysis of how far sea temperature departs from its usual value for the date shown; a marine heat indicator, not a coral bleaching alert.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS Global Flood Product (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite detection; clouds leave gaps. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite image
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-14
- Resolution
- about 250 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
About this layer
- Evidence
- Observed (clouds and overpass timing leave gaps)
- Source
- VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS) (NASA LANCE FIRMS)
- Provider
- NASA LANCE FIRMS
- Licence
- NASA open data
- Vintage
- daily; Satellite detection; clouds and overpass timing leave gaps
- Newest at build
- 2026-10-13
- Resolution
- about 500 m grid
- Uncertainty
- Satellite hot-spot detections for the day shown, including gas flares and industrial heat; not a confirmed fire, an incident report or a warning.
- Reached through
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Climate signals, framed on the world.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT · NASA AIRSSources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- GPM IMERG precipitation, NASA Precipitation Processing System; distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- GHRSST Level 4 MUR analyses, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory; distributed by the NASA Physical Oceanography DAAC (PO.DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- Observed (EO): NASA AIRS. We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- Air quality forecast, 5 days, PM2.5 (CAMS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service information 2026.
- Past year, daily temperature (ERA5 via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026.
- Past year, daily temperature and sunshine (NASA POWER): These data were obtained from the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) POWER Project funded through the NASA Earth Science/Applied Science Program..
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (22 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE · 14 Sep 2026
- Precipitation rate, daily mean: GPM IMERG, NASA GES DISC · 12 Oct 2026
- Sea surface temperature anomaly: GHRSST MUR25, NASA JPL PO.DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
04Hazard measures
How each hazard is measured, and the reference that sets the measure.
| Hazard | Common intensity measure and unit | Reference |
|---|---|---|
| Riverine and pluvial flood | Inundation depth in metres; discharge in cubic metres per second; return period in years | National hydrological services; WMO operational hydrology guidance |
| Meteorological drought | Standardized Precipitation Index, without units, over 1 to 48 months | WMO-No. 1090 user guide (2012) |
| Heat | Daily maximum air temperature in degrees Celsius; wet-bulb globe temperature in degrees Celsius | National meteorological services; ISO 7243 for occupational heat stress |
| Tropical cyclone | Maximum sustained wind in metres per second or knots over a stated averaging period; central pressure in hectopascals | WMO tropical cyclone programme; IBTrACS archive |
| Earthquake | Moment magnitude; peak ground acceleration as a fraction of gravity; macroseismic intensity | National seismological agencies; USGS and the Global Earthquake Model foundation |
| Wildfire | Fire weather index without units; burned area in hectares; fire radiative power in megawatts | National fire danger rating systems; satellite active fire products |
The UNDRR and International Science Council Hazard Information Profiles, first published in 2020 and since updated, define each hazard type. National loss reporting under the Sendai Framework then counts like with like.
05Twin and cascade simulator
Model climate and hazards as a system. Run the cascade.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Disaster and climate risk finance: the hazards it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
Hazards
- Tropical cyclone
- Earthquake
- Ice-jam flood
- Storm surge (set off downstream)
- Intense rainfall (set off downstream)
- River flood (set off downstream)
- Flash flood (set off downstream)
- Dangerous surf (set off downstream)
- Widespread power outage (set off downstream)
- Mass displacement (set off downstream)
- Coastal flood (set off downstream)
- Aftershock sequence (set off downstream)
- Fault surface rupture (set off downstream)
- Soil liquefaction (set off downstream)
- Slope slide (set off downstream)
- Rockfall (set off downstream)
- Tsunami (set off downstream)
- Building collapse (set off downstream)
Systems and couplings
Controls
NS-0Constitution and principlesNS-3Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)NS-9Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)NS-10Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)NS-11Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)NS-14Conformance and crosswalk to external standardsNRS-F8Parametric and index-based risk transferNRS-F7Disaster risk finance and pre-arranged financeNRS-H113Hazard family: Financial-system fragility (NHS-1 soc.financial-system)NRS-H114Hazard family: Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks (NHS-1 soc.macro-fiscal)NRS-D1Risk-informed development and project screeningNRS-H28Hazard family: Climate-state shifts (NHS-1 eco.climate-state)
Observation
- ERA5 reanalysis (Copernicus Climate Data Store) (listed for reference)
- CHIRPS quasi-global gridded precipitation (listed for reference)
- USGS earthquake GeoJSON summary feeds (listed for reference)
- Total public international support for national disaster risk reduction actions (Sendai indicator F-1)
- Direct economic loss attributed to disasters in relation to global GDP
Example geography
- Western Europe: 152 hexagonal cells
- Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
- Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
- Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
- Surface soil moisture (SMAP), NASA GIBS
06A changing baseline
Why a warming climate breaks the assumptions inside hazard estimates.
Design floods, building wind loads and insurance prices rest on a return period estimated from a historical record, which assumes that the statistics of the record do not change. The IPCC Working Group I report of 2021 assessed with high confidence that heat extremes have become more frequent and intense across most land regions. Heavy precipitation has intensified over most regions with good data. Where the baseline moves, a 100-year flood estimated from the last fifty years is a moving target.
| Approach | What it adds | Its limit |
|---|---|---|
| Non-stationary extreme value models | Let the distribution of extremes change with time or a climate covariate | Need long records; trend extrapolation beyond the data is fragile |
| Probabilistic event attribution (protocol by Philip and others, 2020) | Estimates how much warming changed the likelihood or intensity of a class of event | Strongest for heat; weaker for drought, wildfire and small-scale rain; depends on model quality |
| Reanalysis such as ERA5 (Hersbach and others, 2020) | A consistent gridded record of past weather back to 1940 | A model product, smoother than station data for extremes; not an observation |
| Downscaled climate projections from CMIP6 | Ranges of future hazard under stated emissions pathways | Model spread is wide for precipitation extremes; downscaling adds its own error |
07GCRI’s part
What GCRI contributes on hazards, and what it leaves to the agencies.
Hazard monitoring, forecasts and warnings are the mandate of national meteorological, hydrological and geological services. GCRI does research on methods, helps translate hazard evidence into the dependencies of water, energy, food and health systems, and supports national teams in building that capability. It issues no warnings and holds no forecast mandate. Field work is organised through the Climate and Hazards platform.
Reviewed hazard and exposure analyses are designed for the Country Systems Risk and Resilience series; methods for non-stationary extremes for the Methods and Technical series. Under the proposed Nexus Standards each gridded product would carry a metadata record (NS-3b) naming its source, period and processing.
- Station records or digitised archives that extend a short series, offered with their terms.
- Local damage observations after an event, with date, place and method.
- Evidence that a hazard map misses a place or a mechanism.
08Limits of prediction
Forecasts, projections and scenarios answer different questions.
| Product | What it can tell you | What it cannot |
|---|---|---|
| Weather forecast | Likely conditions over days, with skill that falls as lead time grows | Precise local impacts far ahead |
| Seasonal outlook | Shifts in the odds of wetter, drier, warmer or cooler conditions | Whether a given event will occur |
| Climate projection | Plausible ranges under stated emissions pathways | A prediction for a specific year or place |
| Stress scenario | How systems behave under a severe but plausible event | The probability of that event |
GCRI labels every result as forecast, modelled, scenario or observed, and never presents a scenario as a prediction.
09Methods
The science behind hazard evidence.
The work draws on climate and atmospheric science, extreme value theory and tail risk, Earth observation and forecasting and time-series analysis. Field work is organised through the Climate and Hazards platform, and the climate and hazards field gateway.
10Across the programme
Governance and finance views of the same hazards.
The Global Risks Forum (GRF) examines how institutions govern climate and nature risk under climate and nature governance. The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) examines what hazard evidence means for financial institutions under climate and nature risk. Related GCRI pages: disaster resilience and early warning research.
11Sources
Where this page’s references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
- IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group I, chapter 11 on weather and climate extremes (IPCC, 2021)
- IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group II, Summary for Policymakers and glossary (IPCC, 2022)
- UNDRR-ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2020, with later updates)
- Philip and others, A protocol for probabilistic extreme event attribution analyses, Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography 6 (2020)
- Hersbach and others, The ERA5 global reanalysis, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 146 (2020)
- Zscheischler and others, Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change 8 (2018)
- WMO State of the Global Climate 2024 (WMO, 2025)
- Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (UNDRR, 2015)
- NS-3b, Dataset and product metadata profile (STAC, DCAT, PROV-O), a proposed standard
12Questions
Questions and answers.
Does GCRI issue hazard warnings?
No. Authority warnings are issued by authorised national agencies. GCRI studies warning science and forecast verification, and The Consortium is not an emergency service. In immediate danger, contact your local emergency services.
Can climate change be blamed for a specific event?
Attribution science can estimate how climate change altered the likelihood or intensity of some kinds of events, with stated uncertainty. It cannot do so equally well for all hazards, and GCRI reports the method and its confidence each time.
Why does GCRI talk about exposure and vulnerability, not only hazards?
Because losses depend on who and what is in harm’s way and how well they can cope. Reducing exposure and vulnerability is often the most effective lever a country has.
Where can I find country-level hazard evidence?
Country evidence is published through Reports once reviewed, with methods and uncertainty. A country research profile is not a constituted national programme.
ReportsContribute
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