Risk transmission examples
Systemic risk is easier to understand through examples of how stress travels from one system into others. This page sets out how The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) presents such examples: as annotated pathways with their evidence boundaries stated. The pathways below are illustrations of mechanisms, not records of particular events. Documented case examples are added only with their sources cited, the evidence type labelled and the limits of attribution explained. This page is part of global challenges.
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- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
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- R0: information and enquiries
Country programme console
Risk transmission examples · Country programme A · Month 8
Programme
- Formationdossier
- National Deskstaffed
- National Modelbuild
- Portfoliooptions
- Annual missiontest
- Reportedition
System coupling
dependency strength, 0 to 100
Placeholder strengths a National Model replaces with estimates.
Evidence ledger
| Reservoir storage | OBSERVED | National Desk |
| Hydropower output | MODELLED | Technical office |
| Grid stress | SCENARIO | Technical office |
| Hospital continuity | ESTIMATED | Health ministry |
GCRI · Country programme consoleCountry programme console, in outline: domain structure with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record.
The short answer.
Risk transmission examples are annotated pathways that show how stress travels from one system into others, such as a heatwave reaching power, water and hospitals. GCRI presents them as illustrations of mechanisms with their evidence boundaries stated, not records of particular events, and adds documented cases only with their sources cited.
Systemic exposure in World.
Where people and networks concentrate, the exposure through which shocks travel between systems, shown for World as an example geography for this subject.
Mechanisms, labelled as illustrations.
| Starting stress | How it can travel | Systems reached |
|---|---|---|
| Prolonged drought | Reservoirs fall, hydropower and thermal plant cooling decline, water treatment loses power as demand peaks | Water, energy, health |
| Heatwave | Electricity demand rises while cooling water warms, curtailment follows, hospitals and data services strain | Energy, health, digital services |
| Port outage | Fuel and food imports pause, customs and payment systems slow, prices respond | Trade, food, finance |
| Upstream deforestation | Flood peaks and sediment rise, damaging treatment works, reservoirs and downstream farms | Nature, water, energy, food |
Illustrative pathways. They describe plausible mechanisms and are not findings about any country, place or event.
What a documented example must show.
- 01
Cited sources
Each step links to its source, with the original source authority retained.
- 02
Evidence label
Each step is labelled observed, officially reported, estimated, modelled or expert judgement.
- 03
Attribution limits
Where other causes contributed, the example says so. Correlation is not presented as causation.
- 04
Rights and sensitivity
Restricted infrastructure detail and protected community knowledge never appear in examples.
Terms used on this page.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Cascading risk | Risk that a failure in one system or component triggers failures in others that depend on it. |
| Causal loop diagram | A diagram showing variables and the reinforcing or balancing feedback loops between them. |
| Historical analogue | A past event used to inform a scenario about a comparable future shock. |
| Dependency graph | A network showing which components or services rely on which others. |
Examples show where sector-by-sector assessment falls short.
Each pathway crosses mandates that are usually assessed separately. Seeing the whole chain helps identify the common points of failure and the interventions that strengthen several systems at once. The methods behind this are described under systemic and cascading risks and models and scenarios, and the five core systems under water, energy, food, health and nature.
The Global Risks Forum (GRF) collects governance lessons in its governance case studies.
Questions and answers.
Are these examples real events?
Can I submit a case example?
Why not quantify the losses in each example?
How do examples feed into country work?
Around GCRI.
Start with an enquiry.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.