Extreme sea-level analysis
Tide gauge records are separated into tide, surge and mean sea level, and extremes are combined with sea-level projections to estimate future 沿海洪水 levels.
Ocean science studies the physics, chemistry, biology and geology of the oceans and coasts. It informs 海平面上升, 风暴潮, marine heatwaves, acidification and fisheries change, all of which affect coastal populations and trade. In climate and hazards and disaster and crisis, ocean projections guide coastal defence, port planning and fisheries management. They link marine hazards to food security, shipping routes and coastal economies. The canonical description is on STEM Commons.
Tide gauge records are separated into tide, surge and mean sea level, and extremes are combined with sea-level projections to estimate future 沿海洪水 levels.
Sea surface temperatures are compared with a seasonal climatology to detect marine heatwaves and their duration and intensity.
Indices of El Niño and other ocean-atmosphere modes are tracked because they shift rainfall, 气旋 and drought probabilities across regions.
Marine heat, sea temperature and chlorophyll across the world, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
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NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap贡献者 (ODbL) · Natural Earth
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Ocean state, framed on the world.NASA 发布的卫星和模型产品,各带自己的日期。它们是指标,而非对任何地点的评估。
图层与日期
Datasets and records used by ocean and coastal science on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in 来源登记册.
| 数据 | 角色 | 标签 |
|---|---|---|
| Tide gauge archives (GESLA, PSMSL) | Sea-level records | 观测 |
| Satellite altimetry | Sea surface height | 观测 |
| NOAA OISST sea surface temperature | 海洋热浪 detection | 观测 |
| IPCC AR6 sea-level projections | Future mean sea level | 模型生成 |
两个存量,即压力和 适应能力,由一个增强的增长回路、一个延迟的平衡响应以及压力超过能力时产生的损害相连;越过阈值后,系统可能发生突变。这是使用明示示例数值的教学模型,不是预测。
控制措施
读数
| 年份 | 压力 | 能力 | 感知 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.0 | 50.0 | 20.0 |
| 4 | 23.3 | 44.9 | 21.2 |
| 8 | 27.2 | 42.2 | 24.0 |
| 12 | 31.7 | 42.3 | 27.7 |
| 16 | 36.8 | 45.5 | 32.2 |
| 20 | 42.3 | 51.5 | 37.2 |
| 24 | 47.9 | 60.3 | 42.6 |
| 28 | 53.2 | 71.3 | 48.0 |
| 32 | 57.8 | 84.3 | 53.1 |
| 36 | 66.4 | 98.4 | 58.4 |
| 40 | 82.7 | 115.9 | 69.7 |
| 44 | 97.8 | 139.7 | 83.8 |
| 48 | 109.1 | 169.4 | 97.3 |
No observed data enters this model: it runs on the teaching values set by the controls, to be replaced with a programme’s own evidence.
贯穿六大支柱,由 Nexus Consortium 牵头
Models are checked against tide gauge records, altimetry and in situ profiles. Hindcasts of past storms and heatwaves test predictive skill.
| 核查 | 如何开展 |
|---|---|
| Vertical land motion | Tide gauge trends are corrected for land subsidence or uplift where measured |
| Climatology consistency | 海洋热浪 definitions state the baseline period and threshold |
| Projection traceability | Sea-level projections are cited with scenario and percentile |
Coastal processes at fine scale and ice sheet contributions to sea level remain uncertain. Observations of the deep ocean and polar seas are sparse.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile 气候风险标准: the hazards it names, the 系统 and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
灾害
控制措施
NS-0 章程与原则NS-1 维持社会运转的 UNI 与制品目录(语法 v0.2:领域、部门、区域和环境分段)NS-3 风险记录 UNI(语法、旧编码对照、分配机构)NS-3b 数据集与产品元数据规范(STAC、DCAT、PROV-O)NS-9 情境 UNI(部署、实例、计划实例)NS-11 验证与监测(证据、证明、零信任符合性观测)NS-14 符合性及与外部标准的对照NRS-H65 危害类别:超越行星边界(NHS-1 planet.boundary)NRS-H62 危害类别:复合与多危害事件(NHS-1 sys.compound)NRS-H71 危害类别:深时与宇宙灾难(NHS-1 planet.deep-time)NRS-H79 危害类别:精神卫生危机(NHS-1 health.mental)NRS-H75 危害类别:气候敏感性疾病(NHS-1 health.climate-sensitive)NRS-H7 危害类别:大尺度环流异常(NHS-1 atmo.climate-mode)观测
示例地理范围
模型、其假设、数据和不确定性,以科学家或工程师会核查的形式呈现。结构遵循已发表的方法。所取数值仅为示意,不是研究发现。
How far the outlook for ocean science for climate hazards could spread, shown as ranges rather than a single line.
海洋与海岸 stewards ocean and coastal science for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.
报告 is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
切勿发送个人数据、敏感基础设施细节或您无权分享的任何内容。贡献在使用前会经过审查;发送贡献不赋予署名权或编辑权,赞助也绝不能换取研究结论。
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