Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

14 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Need is rising as support contracts
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Funding contraction, displacement surge and food price shock in a highly indebted fragile economy
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 46 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.146 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1OCHA (ed.), Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Trends in crises and needs: a world at breaking point (December 2025; people in urgent need, drivers, famine and Catastrophe counts, civilian fatalities). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  2. 2OCHA (ed.), Humanitarian Action, Global Humanitarian Overview 2026 landing and at-a-glance pages (requirements and prioritised requirements at launch, plan list, mid-year appeal, supply-chain disruption note). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  3. 3OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Trends in crises and needs: civilians in the line of fire (June 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  4. 4OCHA (ed.), Mid-Year Review of the Global Humanitarian Overview 2026, Humanitarians in action in 2026: delivering against the odds (people targeted, prioritised and reached; contributions to end-May 2026). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  5. 5OCHA (ed.), Financial Tracking Service, public API, funding flows by year (2022 to 2025), queried at access; recent years are incomplete. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7
  6. 6UNHCR (ed.), Refugee Population Statistics Database, public API, global totals 2015 to 2025 (refugees, asylum-seekers, IDPs, returns, stateless people). United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
  7. 7IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (full report, May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  8. 8OECD (ed.), Preliminary official development assistance levels in 2025 (data note, April 2026; text read from the European Commission Knowledge for Policy record of the note, the OECD page returned an access error). Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  9. 9United Nations (UN DESA, ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2026 (full report, PDF). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (data from 2015 to 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  10. 10FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (publication page with headline estimates). Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  11. 11WFP (ed.), Global hunger crisis page citing the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises (266 million people in crisis levels of hunger or worse; 70% in fragile or conflict-affected countries). World Food Programme, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  12. 12Food Security Information Network and Global Network Against Food Crises (eds.), 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, Mid-year update (August 2026). FSIN, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  13. 13UNDP and OPHI (eds.), Global Multidimensional Poverty Index 2026 (report page with headline findings). United Nations Development Programme, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
  14. 14UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  15. 15DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SI.POV.DDAY, poverty headcount ratio at USD 3.00 a day (2021 PPP), world, low-income and sub-Saharan Africa groups, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  16. 16DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SH.DYN.MORT, under-5 mortality rate, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 8
  17. 17DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SH.IMM.IDPT, immunisation DPT, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  18. 18DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SH.STA.MMRT, maternal mortality ratio (modelled estimate), API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
  19. 19DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, DT.ODA.ODAT.CD, net official development assistance received, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  20. 20DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT, personal remittances received, low- and middle-income group, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  21. 21DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, DT.DOD.DECT.CD and DT.TDS.DECT.CD, external debt stocks and debt service, low- and middle-income group, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 8
  22. 22DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS, access to electricity, low-income group, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
  23. 23DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, people using safely managed drinking water services, low-income group, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
  24. 24DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, IT.NET.USER.ZS, individuals using the internet, low-income group and world, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3
  25. 25DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG, GDP per capita growth, low-income group, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  26. 26DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS, prevalence of undernourishment, low-income group, API, last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  27. 27Cavalcanti, D.M. et al., Evaluating the impact of two decades of USAID interventions and projecting the effects of defunding on mortality up to 2030: a retrospective impact evaluation and forecasting analysis, The Lancet, 2025 (abstract read through Europe PMC). Elsevier. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  28. 28Sibils, G.B. et al., Wealth redistribution policies to mitigate the impact of development assistance defunding: a retrospective evaluation and forecasting analysis up to 2030, The Lancet, 2026 (abstract read through Europe PMC). Elsevier. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  29. 29CHS Alliance, Group URD and the Sphere Association (eds.), Core Humanitarian Standard on Quality and Accountability, CHS 2024 version (standard page). CHS Alliance, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  30. 30United Nations General Assembly, Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, resolution A/RES/70/1 (full text, PDF). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  31. 31WHO (ed.), Surveillance System for Attacks on Health Care (SSA), method and definitions page; the dashboard counts were not extracted. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  32. 32Humanitarian Outcomes (ed.), Aid Worker Security Database, project page and Figures at a Glance 2025 listing (statistics through 2024 announced; the figures themselves were not extracted). Humanitarian Outcomes, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2025 (June 2026); the headline total of about 117.8 million was seen only in search-result summaries and is not used as a figure; the publication pages returned an access error. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (eds.), Levels and Trends in Child Mortality, latest report; no figure is used. UNICEF, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: OCHA (ed.), Humanitarian Reset (2025 to 2026 reform of the humanitarian system), cited from a mention in the opened Mid-Year Review [4]; the OCHA page was not found. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Sphere Association (ed.), The Sphere Handbook: Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Humanitarian Response, 2018 edition; the site returned an access error. Sphere, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly, Outcome document of the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development (Seville, 2025), cited from memory; the document pages returned a stub or an error. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly, Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030, resolution A/RES/69/283, cited from memory; the document pages returned a stub or an error. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly, Global Compact on Refugees (2018), cited from memory; the UNHCR page returned an access error. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, Famine Review Committee analysis of the Gaza Governorate (August 2025), cited from the opened OCHA text [1], not from the IPC document. IPC Global Support Unit, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF and World Bank (eds.), Debt Sustainability Framework for low-income countries, list of debt-distress ratings; the IMF site returned an access denial. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ILO (ed.), World Social Protection Report 2024 to 2026; the 52.4% coverage figure is taken from the opened SDG Report [9], not from the ILO report. International Labour Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNESCO (ed.), Global Education Monitoring Report, latest edition; the out-of-school figure is taken from the opened SDG Report [9], not from UNESCO. United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), International Debt Report 2025; no figure is used. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zscheischler, J. et al., A typology of compound weather and climate events, Nature Reviews Earth and Environment 1, 333 to 347, 2020, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025; the 1.43 °C figure is taken from the opened SDG Report [9], not from WMO. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Global Development and Humanitarian Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Global Sector Series GS-06
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 development and humanitarian edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
GS-06NR-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-SEC-GS-06-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

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ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. GS-06 edition Reports Global Development and Humanitarian 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; GS-06 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Global Development and Humanitarian Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Development and Humanitarian Action Worldwide. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-DEVELOPMENT-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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