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Key findings

Twelve findings carry the infrastructure and logistics baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

6 min read1 figure0 tables17 notesNR-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Infrastructure is what the other systems travel on
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Trade
    3. 2.3 Infrastructure
    4. 2.4 Finance
    5. 2.5 Health
    6. 2.6 Data and digital
    7. 2.7 Energy
    8. 2.8 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Chokepoint closure with port downtime and a cyber incident
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-002

Daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 129 on 1 to 27 February 2026 and fell by 97% in early March.

Figure 2.1Daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Average, 1 to 27 February 2026129
Early March 2026, about (derived from the 97% fall)4

Source: UNCTAD, Strait of Hormuz Disruptions, 10 March 2026, from Clarksons Research data2. The early March value is the editors’ derivation (method 2).

Implication

The strait carried about 20 million barrels of oil a day in 2024. UNCTAD put this at 25% of seaborne oil trade in March 2026, and its 2025 Review gave about 34% of seaborne oil exports and 11% of maritime trade. Around one third of seaborne fertiliser trade, about 16 million tonnes, also passes through it213.

What would move it

The next UNCTAD tracking of transits, the Review of Maritime Transport 2026 and the monthly shipping reports would each move this finding.

2.2Trade

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-001

    Maritime trade volumes reached 12,720 million tons in 2024, up 2.2%, and ton-miles rose 5.9% because ships rerouted; the average haul grew from 4,831 miles in 2018 to 5,245 miles in 2024.15

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-002

    Daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 129 on 1 to 27 February 2026 and fell by 97% in early March; the strait carried about 20 million barrels of oil a day in 2024, 25% of seaborne oil trade in the March analysis and over one third of seaborne oil exports in the 2025 Review.241

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-003

    Ship tonnage through the Suez Canal remained 70% below the 2023 average in early May 2025, and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index averaged 2,496 points in 2024, up 149%.1

  4. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-006

    Climate-related downtime at 1,320 ports puts USD 81 billion of trade and at least USD 122 billion of economic activity at risk each year; a multi-hazard analysis finds 86% of ports exposed to more than three hazards and USD 63.1 billion of trade at risk each year.161718

2.3Infrastructure

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-004

    Infrastructure disruption costs households and firms in low- and middle-income countries USD 391 to 647 billion a year, against USD 18 billion a year of direct damage to power and transport assets, in a 2019 estimate.14

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-005

    About 27% of global road and rail assets are exposed to at least one hazard and about 7.5% to a 1-in-100-year flood; expected annual direct damage is USD 3.1 to 22 billion, about 73% from flooding.15

  3. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-011

    The NTSB found that a loose wire connection caused a blackout on the containership Dali, which struck the Key Bridge on 26 March 2024; lack of a vulnerability assessment contributed to the collapse, six workers died and over 34,000 vehicles a day lost the route.22

2.4Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-007

    The 2017 Global Infrastructure Outlook put the need to 2040 at USD 94 trillion, USD 97 trillion with the SDG access targets, with USD 18 trillion unfunded; official flows for infrastructure in developing countries reached USD 78.7 billion in 2024, of which USD 26.7 billion went to transport.215

2.5Health

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008

    Road traffic crashes killed 1.19 million people in 2021, 92% of deaths fall in low- and middle-income countries, and more than half are pedestrians, cyclists and motorcyclists; a WHO fact sheet of July 2026 gives 1.16 million without a reference year.1112

2.6Data and digital

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DAT-009

    6.3 billion people (76%) use the Internet in 2026 and 2 billion do not; use is 93% in high-income and 32% in low-income countries, and 3G or better covers 96% of people.1058

2.7Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-010

    Electric car sales reached 21 million in 2025, one in four cars sold; electric heavy trucks in China passed 200 000 units; oil use for aviation rose 3.6% while gasoline and diesel demand were virtually unchanged.13

2.8Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a chokepoint closure that coincides with weather-driven port downtime and an operational cyber incident at a major hub. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 2UNCTAD (ed.), Strait of Hormuz Disruptions: Implications for Global Trade and Development, rapid analysis dated 10 March 2026, from Clarksons Research, EIA, LSEG, Kpler and other data. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 1UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025: Staying the course in turbulent waters (full report and overview). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 3UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz shipping disruptions raise risks for energy, fertilisers and vulnerable economies, media alert UNCTAD/PRESS/MA/2026/003, Geneva, 10 March 2026. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 5UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 9 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 (indicators 9.1.2 and 9.a.1) and 2025 (indicator 9.c.1). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 4UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz disruption shows why early-warning data matters, news item (about 95% fall in ship transits; tracking tool described). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 16Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E. and Hall, J.W., Systemic risks from climate-related disruptions at ports, Nature Climate Change 13, 804 to 806, 2023 (abstract and introduction opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 17Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E., Hall, J.W. et al., Multi-hazard risk to global port infrastructure and resulting trade and logistics losses, Communications Earth and Environment 4, 2023 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 18Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E. and Hall, J.W., Ports’ criticality in international trade and global supply-chains, Nature Communications 13, 2022 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 14Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. World Bank, Washington, 2019 (full report PDF). Observation year 2019 (analysis of earlier data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 15Koks, E.E. et al., A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets, Nature Communications 10, 2677, 2019 (abstract via Crossref). Springer Nature. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 22NTSB (ed.), Contact of Containership Dali with Francis Scott Key Bridge and Subsequent Bridge Collapse, investigation page with probable cause and recommendations. National Transportation Safety Board, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 21Global Infrastructure Hub (ed.), Global Infrastructure Outlook, press release of 25 July 2017 (USD 94 trillion need to 2040, USD 97 trillion with SDG access targets, USD 18 trillion unfunded). Global Infrastructure Hub, Sydney. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 11WHO (ed.), Global status report on road safety 2023, Geneva, 13 December 2023 (publication page). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 12WHO (ed.), Road traffic injuries, fact sheet updated 20 July 2026 (about 1.16 million deaths a year; 92% in low- and middle-income countries; reference year not stated). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year not stated on the page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 10ITU (ed.), Measuring digital development: Facts and Figures 2026 (publication page with key findings). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 8DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, individuals using the Internet (series IT.NET.USER.ZS, ITU source), API read, database last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 13IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (PDF, opened from a copy of the published report hosted by a third party). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Global Infrastructure and Logistics Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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