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Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

8 min read0 figures5 tables20 notesNR-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Infrastructure is what the other systems travel on
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Chokepoint closure with port downtime and a cyber incident
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Infrastructure and water
    2. 8.2 Infrastructure and food
    3. 8.3 Infrastructure and health
    4. 8.4 Infrastructure and nature
    5. 8.5 Infrastructure, energy and extremes
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Infrastructure and water

Water levels and floods shape routes. Flooding causes about 73% of expected direct damage to road and rail, and canals and rivers carry freight only while levels allow.

73%

of expected road and rail damage from flooding15

13,404transits

Panama Canal, 202532

7.5%

of road and rail assets exposed to a 1-in-100-year flood15

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Roads and railflooding is the largest source of expected direct damage; protection could return a positive benefit on about 60% of exposed roads15Reported
Canalscanal transits are reported by the operator; UNCTAD notes congestion and transit restrictions at the Panama Canal in 2024, not quantified here321Reported
Ports and coaststropical cyclones cause 32% of port-specific risk; sea level rise is not quantified here17Reported
Water use of transportnot consolidated here30Expert input

Couplings

  • WAT → INF flood and low-flow disruption
  • INF → WAT dredging and canal works
  • CLI → WAT → INF storm surge and sea level

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • canal capacity in low-flow years
  • water use of ports and rail

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-10 Cities and Urban Systems
  • SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints

8.2Infrastructure and food

Food moves on ports, roads and cold chains. The 2026 Hormuz disruption showed that the link runs through fertiliser freight as well as fuel.

1/3share

of seaborne fertiliser trade passes through Hormuz2

16million tonnes

of fertiliser shipped from the Gulf in 20242

2%

of dry bulk trade passes through Hormuz, including grain2

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Fertiliser freightabout 16 million tonnes a year pass through the strait; urea is 67% of it23Reported
Freight costfreight, bunker and insurance costs rose in March 2026 and may raise food costs2Reported
Port reliancelow-income countries and small islands rely 1.5 and 2.0 times more on ports than the global average18Reported
Cold chainsdepend on reliable roads and power; no consolidated series here1Expert input

Couplings

  • INF → FOO freight and ports
  • TRD → INF → FOO fertiliser price transmission
  • ENE → INF → FOO haulage fuel

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • food price pass-through by region
  • cold-chain reliability

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-10 Cities and Urban Systems
  • SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints

8.3Infrastructure and health

Infrastructure shapes health through safe roads, access to care and connected services. Road crashes remain the clearest measured harm.

1.19million

road traffic deaths, 202111

92%

of road deaths in low- and middle-income countries12

2billion

people offline in 202610

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Road safety1.19 million deaths in 2021; leading cause of death for people aged 5 to 29; a fact sheet gives 1.16 million1112Reported
Cost of crashesmost countries bear a cost of about 3% of GDP12Reported
Connectivity3G or better covers 96% of people; 4% (312 million) have no mobile broadband5Reported
Access to carenot consolidated here14Expert input

Couplings

  • INF → HLT crashes and access
  • DAT → INF → HLT telehealth and logistics
  • ENE → INF → HLT fuel and power for care

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • travel time to care by region
  • reliability of connectivity

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-10 Cities and Urban Systems
  • SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints

8.4Infrastructure and nature

Infrastructure influences almost every goal for people and the planet. Shipping and corridors also press on climate and habitats, and the nature side of the ledger is thin in this edition.

72%

of SDG targets influenced by infrastructure19

2.5billion

more urban people by 205030

1.43°C

above pre-industrial, 202531

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Sustainable developmentinfrastructure directly or indirectly influences all of the SDGs, including 72% of targets19Reported
Shipping emissionsthe IMO adopted a strategy in 2023 and deferred the Net-Zero Framework in 20252627Reported
Fleet transition8% of the active fleet by gross tonnage is designed for alternative fuels; over 90% runs on conventional fuels1Reported
Habitat effectsdredging, corridors and port expansion; not consolidated here30Expert input

Couplings

  • INF → BIO corridors and dredging
  • INF → CLI emissions
  • BIO → INF pests and invasive species carried by trade

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • habitat effects of corridors and dredging
  • transport emissions on one basis

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-10 Cities and Urban Systems
  • SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints

8.5Infrastructure, energy and extremes

Transport now draws on power as well as fuel, and sudden failures come from chokepoints, storms, structures and software. These are the channels the 2024 to 2026 evidence shows.

21million

electric cars sold in 202513

3.6%

rise in oil use for aviation in 202513

98incidents

reported cyber incidents on transport, 2021 to 202223

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Fuel and powerelectric cars one in four sales; transport over 10% of electricity demand growth in 202513Reported
ChokepointsHormuz transits fell 97%; Suez tonnage 70% below the 2023 average21Reported
Structuresa loose wire caused a blackout on a vessel that struck a bridge; six workers died22Reported
Cyber incidentsransomware was 38% of incidents in 2021 to 2022; cybercriminals 54% of attackers23Reported

Couplings

  • TRD → INF chokepoints
  • DAT → INF cyber disruption
  • ENE → INF fuel and power

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • chokepoint position after March 2026
  • cyber incidents since 2022

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-02 Energy
  • GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-10 Cities and Urban Systems
  • SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 15Koks, E.E. et al., A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets, Nature Communications 10, 2677, 2019 (abstract via Crossref). Springer Nature. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 32Autoridad del Canal de Panama (ed.), Panama Canal Authority, home page statistics (13,404 transits in 2025). Panama Canal Authority, Balboa. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 1UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025: Staying the course in turbulent waters (full report and overview). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 17Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E., Hall, J.W. et al., Multi-hazard risk to global port infrastructure and resulting trade and logistics losses, Communications Earth and Environment 4, 2023 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 30IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II, Chapter 6: Cities, Settlements and Key Infrastructure (chapter PDF opened). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 2UNCTAD (ed.), Strait of Hormuz Disruptions: Implications for Global Trade and Development, rapid analysis dated 10 March 2026, from Clarksons Research, EIA, LSEG, Kpler and other data. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 3UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz shipping disruptions raise risks for energy, fertilisers and vulnerable economies, media alert UNCTAD/PRESS/MA/2026/003, Geneva, 10 March 2026. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 18Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E. and Hall, J.W., Ports’ criticality in international trade and global supply-chains, Nature Communications 13, 2022 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 11WHO (ed.), Global status report on road safety 2023, Geneva, 13 December 2023 (publication page). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 12WHO (ed.), Road traffic injuries, fact sheet updated 20 July 2026 (about 1.16 million deaths a year; 92% in low- and middle-income countries; reference year not stated). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year not stated on the page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 10ITU (ed.), Measuring digital development: Facts and Figures 2026 (publication page with key findings). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 5UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 9 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 (indicators 9.1.2 and 9.a.1) and 2025 (indicator 9.c.1). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 14Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. World Bank, Washington, 2019 (full report PDF). Observation year 2019 (analysis of earlier data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 19Thacker, S. et al., Infrastructure for sustainable development, Nature Sustainability 2, 324 to 331, 2019 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 31WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, press release of 23 March 2026 (2025 about 1.43 °C above the 1850 to 1900 average). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 26IMO (ed.), Initial IMO GHG Strategy, hot topic page (notes that the 2023 strategy has been adopted). International Maritime Organization, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 27DNV (ed.), Decision on the IMO Net-Zero Framework delayed for one year, news item of 2025 on the second extraordinary session of the Marine Environment Protection Committee. DNV, Oslo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 13IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (PDF, opened from a copy of the published report hosted by a third party). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 23ENISA (ed.), ENISA Transport Threat Landscape, March 2023 (publication page and report PDF; incidents January 2021 to October 2022). European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, Athens. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 22NTSB (ed.), Contact of Containership Dali with Francis Scott Key Bridge and Subsequent Bridge Collapse, investigation page with probable cause and recommendations. National Transportation Safety Board, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Global Infrastructure and Logistics Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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