Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

15 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Infrastructure is what the other systems travel on
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Chokepoint closure with port downtime and a cyber incident
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 50 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.150 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025: Staying the course in turbulent waters (full report and overview). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  2. 2UNCTAD (ed.), Strait of Hormuz Disruptions: Implications for Global Trade and Development, rapid analysis dated 10 March 2026, from Clarksons Research, EIA, LSEG, Kpler and other data. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  3. 3UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz shipping disruptions raise risks for energy, fertilisers and vulnerable economies, media alert UNCTAD/PRESS/MA/2026/003, Geneva, 10 March 2026. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  4. 4UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz disruption shows why early-warning data matters, news item (about 95% fall in ship transits; tracking tool described). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4
  5. 5UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 9 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 (indicators 9.1.2 and 9.a.1) and 2025 (indicator 9.c.1). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  6. 6DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, container port traffic (TEU), series IS.SHP.GOOD.TU, API read, database last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6
  7. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, air transport passengers carried and freight (series IS.AIR.PSGR and IS.AIR.GOOD.MT.K1, ICAO source) and rail series (no values returned), API read, database last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  8. 8DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, individuals using the Internet (series IT.NET.USER.ZS, ITU source), API read, database last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  9. 9DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, urban population as a share of total population (series SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS, UN source), API read, database last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  10. 10ITU (ed.), Measuring digital development: Facts and Figures 2026 (publication page with key findings). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  11. 11WHO (ed.), Global status report on road safety 2023, Geneva, 13 December 2023 (publication page). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  12. 12WHO (ed.), Road traffic injuries, fact sheet updated 20 July 2026 (about 1.16 million deaths a year; 92% in low- and middle-income countries; reference year not stated). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year not stated on the page. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  13. 13IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (PDF, opened from a copy of the published report hosted by a third party). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  14. 14Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. World Bank, Washington, 2019 (full report PDF). Observation year 2019 (analysis of earlier data). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  15. 15Koks, E.E. et al., A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets, Nature Communications 10, 2677, 2019 (abstract via Crossref). Springer Nature. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  16. 16Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E. and Hall, J.W., Systemic risks from climate-related disruptions at ports, Nature Climate Change 13, 804 to 806, 2023 (abstract and introduction opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7
  17. 17Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E., Hall, J.W. et al., Multi-hazard risk to global port infrastructure and resulting trade and logistics losses, Communications Earth and Environment 4, 2023 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  18. 18Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E. and Hall, J.W., Ports’ criticality in international trade and global supply-chains, Nature Communications 13, 2022 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  19. 19Thacker, S. et al., Infrastructure for sustainable development, Nature Sustainability 2, 324 to 331, 2019 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  20. 20ASCE (ed.), 2025 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure (summary page: overall grade C, grades from B in ports to D in stormwater and transit, USD 3.6 trillion investment gap over ten years). American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  21. 21Global Infrastructure Hub (ed.), Global Infrastructure Outlook, press release of 25 July 2017 (USD 94 trillion need to 2040, USD 97 trillion with SDG access targets, USD 18 trillion unfunded). Global Infrastructure Hub, Sydney. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  22. 22NTSB (ed.), Contact of Containership Dali with Francis Scott Key Bridge and Subsequent Bridge Collapse, investigation page with probable cause and recommendations. National Transportation Safety Board, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  23. 23ENISA (ed.), ENISA Transport Threat Landscape, March 2023 (publication page and report PDF; incidents January 2021 to October 2022). European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, Athens. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  24. 24European Commission (ed.), Trans-European transport network (TEN-T), policy page on Regulation (EU) 2024/1679 (core network by 2030, extended core by 2040, comprehensive by 2050). Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  25. 25European Commission (ed.), NIS2 Directive: securing network and information systems, policy page on Directive (EU) 2022/2555 (earlier directive repealed from 18 October 2024). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  26. 26IMO (ed.), Initial IMO GHG Strategy, hot topic page (notes that the 2023 strategy has been adopted). International Maritime Organization, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  27. 27DNV (ed.), Decision on the IMO Net-Zero Framework delayed for one year, news item of 2025 on the second extraordinary session of the Marine Environment Protection Committee. DNV, Oslo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  28. 28ACI World (ed.), Biannual global air travel demand update, 30 September 2025 (9.4 billion passengers in 2024; 9.8 billion projected for 2025). Airports Council International, Montreal. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  29. 29IATA (ed.), Industry outlook press release, December 2025 (5.2 billion passengers expected in 2026, up 4.4% on 2025; cargo 71.6 million tonnes). International Air Transport Association, Montreal. Observation year 2026 (expectation). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  30. 30IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II, Chapter 6: Cities, Settlements and Key Infrastructure (chapter PDF opened). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  31. 31WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, press release of 23 March 2026 (2025 about 1.43 °C above the 1850 to 1900 average). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8
  32. 32Autoridad del Canal de Panama (ed.), Panama Canal Authority, home page statistics (13,404 transits in 2025). Panama Canal Authority, Balboa. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8
  33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF (ed.), PortWatch daily chokepoint transit series; the daily service returned an access error and only a static chokepoint list was read, from which no figure is used. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITF (ed.), ITF Transport Outlook 2023. International Transport Forum at the OECD, Paris; the page returned an access error and no figure is used. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: ICAO (ed.), Air transport statistics and The World of Air Transport; the site returned an access error and no figure from it is used. International Civil Aviation Organization, Montreal. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025, Resilience Pays: Financing and Investing for our Future; the page was not accessible and no figure from search summaries is used. UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), Connecting to Compete 2023: Trade Logistics in the Global Economy, the Logistics Performance Index; the site was not accessible and no value is used. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global EV Outlook 2026; the page was not accessible and figures from news summaries are not used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Directive (EU) 2022/2557 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the resilience of critical entities, Official Journal of the European Union, 2022; the legal text returned a challenge page and the transport scope is cited from a search summary. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: IMO (ed.), Marine Environment Protection Committee, extraordinary session of October 2025 and the session of October 2026 on the Net-Zero Framework; only the DNV summary [27] was opened. International Maritime Organization, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 55000:2024, Asset management: vocabulary, overview and principles. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva; the page was blocked. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 28000:2022, Security and resilience: security management systems for the supply chain. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva; the page was blocked. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 22301:2019, Security and resilience: business continuity management systems. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva; the page was blocked. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNCTAD (ed.), Strait of Hormuz tracking dashboard, launched April 2026; known only from search summaries. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: ENISA (ed.), ENISA Threat Landscape 2026, published 22 September 2026; only the listing entry was read. European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, Athens. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Colon, C., Hallegatte, S. and Rozenberg, J., Criticality analysis of a country’s transport network via an agent-based supply chain model, Nature Sustainability 4, 209 to 215, 2021; bibliographic record read via Crossref, abstract not read. Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  47. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E. and Hall, J.W., Port disruptions due to natural disasters: Insights into port and logistics resilience, Transportation Research Part D 85, 102393, 2020; bibliographic record read via Crossref, abstract not read. Elsevier. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  48. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMO (ed.), International Ship and Port Facility Security Code, 2004 (SOLAS chapter XI-2), cited from memory. International Maritime Organization, London. Observation year 2004. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  49. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2024: Navigating maritime chokepoints; named in the SDG 9 storyline [5], not opened. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  50. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), Rural Access Index, SDG indicator 9.1.1; the custodian storyline in the SDG Extended Report is empty and the index was not retrieved. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Global Infrastructure and Logistics Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Global Sector Series GS-09
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 infrastructure and logistics edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
GS-09NR-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-SEC-GS-09-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. GS-09 edition Reports Global Infrastructure and Logistics 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; GS-09 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Global Infrastructure and Logistics Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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