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Chokepoint closure with port downtime and a cyber incident

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables3 notesNR-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Infrastructure is what the other systems travel on
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Chokepoint closure with port downtime and a cyber incident
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-GS09-HRM-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
a closure of a major strait or canal that coincides with weather-driven downtime at a large port and an operational cyber incident at a major hub
Analogues
the 2026 Hormuz disruption; Suez tonnage in 2024 and 2025; the 2021 to 2022 transport incidents2123
Interventions
none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    TRD → ENE

    transits through a chokepoint fall; tanker and bunker costs rise

    2026

  2. 2

    CLI → INF

    a storm or heat event closes a large port while diversions pile up

    2023

  3. 3

    DAT → INF

    a cyber incident halts scheduling at a hub

    2022

  4. 4

    INF → FOO

    fertiliser and food freight are delayed and costs pass through

    2026

  5. 5

    INF → HLT

    supplies and access to care slow; crashes rise on diverted roads

    2024

  6. 6

    TRD → FIN

    freight, insurance and import bills strain budgets

    2026

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-GS09-HRM-01 would travel through Global Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Trade to energyTransits through a chokepoint fall; tanker and bunker costs rise. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition GS-09, scenario SCN-GS09-HRM-01, step 1
02 Climate to infrastructureA storm or heat event closes a large port while diversions pile up. Analogue or source: 2023.Edition GS-09, scenario SCN-GS09-HRM-01, step 2
03 DAT to infrastructureA cyber incident halts scheduling at a hub. Analogue or source: 2022.Edition GS-09, scenario SCN-GS09-HRM-01, step 3
04 Infrastructure to foodFertiliser and food freight are delayed and costs pass through. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition GS-09, scenario SCN-GS09-HRM-01, step 4
05 Infrastructure to healthSupplies and access to care slow; crashes rise on diverted roads. Analogue or source: 2024.Edition GS-09, scenario SCN-GS09-HRM-01, step 5
06 Trade to financeFreight, insurance and import bills strain budgets. Analogue or source: 2026.Edition GS-09, scenario SCN-GS09-HRM-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Global Infrastructure and Logistics 2026, scenario SCN-GS09-HRM-01 (2026); Global Infrastructure and Logistics 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 2UNCTAD (ed.), Strait of Hormuz Disruptions: Implications for Global Trade and Development, rapid analysis dated 10 March 2026, from Clarksons Research, EIA, LSEG, Kpler and other data. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 1UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025: Staying the course in turbulent waters (full report and overview). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 23ENISA (ed.), ENISA Transport Threat Landscape, March 2023 (publication page and report PDF; incidents January 2021 to October 2022). European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, Athens. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Chokepoint closure with port downtime and a cyber incident. In Global Infrastructure and Logistics Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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