Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

6 min read1 figure0 tables12 notesNR-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Infrastructure is what the other systems travel on
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Chokepoint closure with port downtime and a cyber incident
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

The world’s infrastructure carries more load, over longer distances and through narrower passages, than a decade ago. Seaborne trade reached 12,720 million tons in 2024, up 2.2%, while ton-miles rose 5.9% as ships rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope1. The average voyage haul grew from 4,831 miles in 2018 to 5,245 miles in 20241. Container ports handled 913 million TEU in 20246. The Strait of Hormuz showed how fast a chokepoint can fail: daily ship transits averaged 129 in February 2026 and fell by 97% in early March, in a strait that carried about 20 million barrels of oil a day in 20242. Hazard exposure is the quiet risk. About 27% of road and rail assets are exposed to at least one hazard15, 86% of ports face more than three hazards17, and infrastructure disruption costs households and firms in low- and middle-income countries USD 391 to 647 billion a year, in a 2019 estimate14. People bear the cost directly: road crashes killed 1.19 million people in 202111. Connectivity is a second layer: 6.3 billion people are online in 2026 and 2 billion are not10. Investment evidence is dated: the 2017 outlook put the need to 2040 at USD 94 trillion21. This baseline sets out what the evidence supports and where it is thin. It ranks no country, port or operator and recommends no route or policy.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the infrastructure and logistics baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. Seaborne trade reached 12,720 million tons in 2024; container ports handled 913 million TEU.16

    How much does the world ship?Reported

  2. Yes. The average haul grew from 4,831 miles in 2018 to 5,245 miles in 2024.1

    Are routes getting longer?Reported

  3. Hormuz transits fell by 97% within days in March 2026.2

    How fast can a chokepoint fail?Reported

  4. Disruption costs USD 391 to 647 billion a year in low- and middle-income countries; ports carry USD 63 to 81 billion of trade at risk a year in two models.141617

    What do hazards cost networks?Reported

  5. Road crashes killed 1.19 million people in 2021, mostly in low- and middle-income countries.11

    Who pays the human price?Reported

  6. Slowly. 2 billion people remain offline; 3G or better covers 96%.105

    Is the connectivity gap closing?Reported

  7. The 2017 outlook found USD 18 trillion unfunded to 2040; no current global estimate was found.21

    Is investment enough?Reported

  8. A chokepoint closure that coincides with port weather downtime and a cyber incident. SCN-GS09-HRM-01

    What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-002

Daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 129 on 1 to 27 February 2026 and fell by 97% in early March.

Figure S.1Daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Average, 1 to 27 February 2026129
Early March 2026, about (derived from the 97% fall)4

Source: UNCTAD, Strait of Hormuz Disruptions, 10 March 2026, from Clarksons Research data2. The early March value is the editors’ derivation (method 2).

The strait carried about 20 million barrels of oil a day in 2024. UNCTAD put this at 25% of seaborne oil trade in March 2026, and its 2025 Review gave about 34% of seaborne oil exports and 11% of maritime trade. Around one third of seaborne fertiliser trade, about 16 million tonnes, also passes through it213.

S.4At a glance

12,720million tons

seaborne trade, 20241

913million TEU

container port traffic, 20246

97%

fall in Hormuz transits, March 20262

27%

road and rail assets exposed to a hazard15

1.19million

road deaths, 202111

6.3billion

people online, 202610

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading infrastructure as the carrier layer of the WEFH+B system.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people infrastructure risk arrives as a delayed delivery, a closed road or a dropped connection.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. The need estimate is dated, port and network risks are modelled in the hundreds of billions, and freight and insurance costs repriced in 2026.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Infrastructure is well measured at the level of trade volumes and port traffic and thinly measured at the level of asset condition, maintenance and recovery.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the 2026 state of the world’s infrastructure, transport and logistics systems and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.

What it is not

Not a logistics performance index, a freight-rate forecast, a route recommendation or an assessment of any port, carrier, airport, operator or government. Infrastructure policy, investment and operations rest with national authorities, owners and operators.

What comes next

National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 infrastructure and logistics edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025: Staying the course in turbulent waters (full report and overview). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 6DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, container port traffic (TEU), series IS.SHP.GOOD.TU, API read, database last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 2UNCTAD (ed.), Strait of Hormuz Disruptions: Implications for Global Trade and Development, rapid analysis dated 10 March 2026, from Clarksons Research, EIA, LSEG, Kpler and other data. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 15Koks, E.E. et al., A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets, Nature Communications 10, 2677, 2019 (abstract via Crossref). Springer Nature. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 17Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E., Hall, J.W. et al., Multi-hazard risk to global port infrastructure and resulting trade and logistics losses, Communications Earth and Environment 4, 2023 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 14Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. World Bank, Washington, 2019 (full report PDF). Observation year 2019 (analysis of earlier data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 11WHO (ed.), Global status report on road safety 2023, Geneva, 13 December 2023 (publication page). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 10ITU (ed.), Measuring digital development: Facts and Figures 2026 (publication page with key findings). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 21Global Infrastructure Hub (ed.), Global Infrastructure Outlook, press release of 25 July 2017 (USD 94 trillion need to 2040, USD 97 trillion with SDG access targets, USD 18 trillion unfunded). Global Infrastructure Hub, Sydney. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 16Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E. and Hall, J.W., Systemic risks from climate-related disruptions at ports, Nature Climate Change 13, 804 to 806, 2023 (abstract and introduction opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 5UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 9 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 (indicators 9.1.2 and 9.a.1) and 2025 (indicator 9.c.1). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 3UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz shipping disruptions raise risks for energy, fertilisers and vulnerable economies, media alert UNCTAD/PRESS/MA/2026/003, Geneva, 10 March 2026. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Global Infrastructure and Logistics Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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