Global Infrastructure and Logistics Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics.

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the infrastructure and logistics baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. Seaborne trade reached 12,720 million tons in 2024; container ports handled 913 million TEU.¹⁶

   How much does the world ship?Reported

2. Yes. The average haul grew from 4,831 miles in 2018 to 5,245 miles in 2024.¹

   Are routes getting longer?Reported

3. Hormuz transits fell by 97% within days in March 2026.²

   How fast can a chokepoint fail?Reported

4. Disruption costs USD 391 to 647 billion a year in low- and middle-income countries; ports carry USD 63 to 81 billion of trade at risk a year in two models.¹⁴¹⁶¹⁷

   What do hazards cost networks?Reported

5. Road crashes killed 1.19 million people in 2021, mostly in low- and middle-income countries.¹¹

   Who pays the human price?Reported

6. Slowly. 2 billion people remain offline; 3G or better covers 96%.¹⁰⁵

   Is the connectivity gap closing?Reported

7. The 2017 outlook found USD 18 trillion unfunded to 2040; no current global estimate was found.²¹

   Is investment enough?Reported

8. A chokepoint closure that coincides with port weather downtime and a cyber incident. SCN-GS09-HRM-01

   What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-002

Daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 129 on 1 to 27 February 2026 and fell by 97% in early March.

The strait carried about 20 million barrels of oil a day in 2024. UNCTAD put this at 25% of seaborne oil trade in March 2026, and its 2025 Review gave about 34% of seaborne oil exports and 11% of maritime trade. Around one third of seaborne fertiliser trade, about 16 million tonnes, also passes through it²¹³.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025: Staying the course in turbulent waters (full report and overview). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 6DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, container port traffic (TEU), series IS.SHP.GOOD.TU, API read, database last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 2UNCTAD (ed.), Strait of Hormuz Disruptions: Implications for Global Trade and Development, rapid analysis dated 10 March 2026, from Clarksons Research, EIA, LSEG, Kpler and other data. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 15Koks, E.E. et al., A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets, Nature Communications 10, 2677, 2019 (abstract via Crossref). Springer Nature. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 17Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E., Hall, J.W. et al., Multi-hazard risk to global port infrastructure and resulting trade and logistics losses, Communications Earth and Environment 4, 2023 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 14Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. World Bank, Washington, 2019 (full report PDF). Observation year 2019 (analysis of earlier data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 11WHO (ed.), Global status report on road safety 2023, Geneva, 13 December 2023 (publication page). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 10ITU (ed.), Measuring digital development: Facts and Figures 2026 (publication page with key findings). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 21Global Infrastructure Hub (ed.), Global Infrastructure Outlook, press release of 25 July 2017 (USD 94 trillion need to 2040, USD 97 trillion with SDG access targets, USD 18 trillion unfunded). Global Infrastructure Hub, Sydney. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 16Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E. and Hall, J.W., Systemic risks from climate-related disruptions at ports, Nature Climate Change 13, 804 to 806, 2023 (abstract and introduction opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 5UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 9 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 (indicators 9.1.2 and 9.a.1) and 2025 (indicator 9.c.1). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 3UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz shipping disruptions raise risks for energy, fertilisers and vulnerable economies, media alert UNCTAD/PRESS/MA/2026/003, Geneva, 10 March 2026. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is infrastructure and logistics risk concentrated?
• Which couplings carry infrastructure and logistics shocks into other systems?
• Which infrastructure and logistics capabilities hold under compound stress?
• What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Five coupling chapters
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The infrastructure and logistics-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their infrastructure and logistics content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   ENE → FOO

   Fuel and fertiliser freight is interrupted at a chokepoint and reaches farms and food prices.

   Reported 2026 Hormuz disruption²³

2. 02

   CLI → INF → TRD

   Storms and heat close ports and routes, and delay trade.

   Reported port downtime studies¹⁶¹⁷

3. 03

   INF → HLT

   A failed link cuts access to care and supplies, and crashes injure people.

   Reported Key Bridge 2024²²; road deaths¹¹

4. 04

   TRD → FIN

   A chokepoint closure lifts freight, fuel and insurance costs for importers.

   Reported 2026 bunker and war-risk costs²

5. 05

   DAT → INF

   A cyber incident halts operations at ports, rail or airlines.

   Reported 2021 to 2022 incidents²³

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 2UNCTAD (ed.), Strait of Hormuz Disruptions: Implications for Global Trade and Development, rapid analysis dated 10 March 2026, from Clarksons Research, EIA, LSEG, Kpler and other data. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 10ITU (ed.), Measuring digital development: Facts and Figures 2026 (publication page with key findings). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 14Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. World Bank, Washington, 2019 (full report PDF). Observation year 2019 (analysis of earlier data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 1UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025: Staying the course in turbulent waters (full report and overview). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 6DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, container port traffic (TEU), series IS.SHP.GOOD.TU, API read, database last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 19Thacker, S. et al., Infrastructure for sustainable development, Nature Sustainability 2, 324 to 331, 2019 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 15Koks, E.E. et al., A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets, Nature Communications 10, 2677, 2019 (abstract via Crossref). Springer Nature. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 17Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E., Hall, J.W. et al., Multi-hazard risk to global port infrastructure and resulting trade and logistics losses, Communications Earth and Environment 4, 2023 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 22NTSB (ed.), Contact of Containership Dali with Francis Scott Key Bridge and Subsequent Bridge Collapse, investigation page with probable cause and recommendations. National Transportation Safety Board, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 21Global Infrastructure Hub (ed.), Global Infrastructure Outlook, press release of 25 July 2017 (USD 94 trillion need to 2040, USD 97 trillion with SDG access targets, USD 18 trillion unfunded). Global Infrastructure Hub, Sydney. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 18Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E. and Hall, J.W., Ports’ criticality in international trade and global supply-chains, Nature Communications 13, 2022 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 16Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E. and Hall, J.W., Systemic risks from climate-related disruptions at ports, Nature Climate Change 13, 804 to 806, 2023 (abstract and introduction opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 3UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz shipping disruptions raise risks for energy, fertilisers and vulnerable economies, media alert UNCTAD/PRESS/MA/2026/003, Geneva, 10 March 2026. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 11WHO (ed.), Global status report on road safety 2023, Geneva, 13 December 2023 (publication page). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 23ENISA (ed.), ENISA Transport Threat Landscape, March 2023 (publication page and report PDF; incidents January 2021 to October 2022). European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, Athens. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-002

Daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 129 on 1 to 27 February 2026 and fell by 97% in early March.

Implication

The strait carried about 20 million barrels of oil a day in 2024. UNCTAD put this at 25% of seaborne oil trade in March 2026, and its 2025 Review gave about 34% of seaborne oil exports and 11% of maritime trade. Around one third of seaborne fertiliser trade, about 16 million tonnes, also passes through it²¹³.

What would move it

The next UNCTAD tracking of transits, the Review of Maritime Transport 2026 and the monthly shipping reports would each move this finding.

2.2Trade

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-001

   Maritime trade volumes reached 12,720 million tons in 2024, up 2.2%, and ton-miles rose 5.9% because ships rerouted; the average haul grew from 4,831 miles in 2018 to 5,245 miles in 2024.¹⁵

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-002

   Daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 129 on 1 to 27 February 2026 and fell by 97% in early March; the strait carried about 20 million barrels of oil a day in 2024, 25% of seaborne oil trade in the March analysis and over one third of seaborne oil exports in the 2025 Review.²⁴¹

3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-003

   Ship tonnage through the Suez Canal remained 70% below the 2023 average in early May 2025, and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index averaged 2,496 points in 2024, up 149%.¹

4. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-006

   Climate-related downtime at 1,320 ports puts USD 81 billion of trade and at least USD 122 billion of economic activity at risk each year; a multi-hazard analysis finds 86% of ports exposed to more than three hazards and USD 63.1 billion of trade at risk each year.¹⁶¹⁷¹⁸

2.3Infrastructure

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-004

   Infrastructure disruption costs households and firms in low- and middle-income countries USD 391 to 647 billion a year, against USD 18 billion a year of direct damage to power and transport assets, in a 2019 estimate.¹⁴

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-005

   About 27% of global road and rail assets are exposed to at least one hazard and about 7.5% to a 1-in-100-year flood; expected annual direct damage is USD 3.1 to 22 billion, about 73% from flooding.¹⁵

3. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-011

   The NTSB found that a loose wire connection caused a blackout on the containership Dali, which struck the Key Bridge on 26 March 2024; lack of a vulnerability assessment contributed to the collapse, six workers died and over 34,000 vehicles a day lost the route.²²

2.4Finance

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-007

   The 2017 Global Infrastructure Outlook put the need to 2040 at USD 94 trillion, USD 97 trillion with the SDG access targets, with USD 18 trillion unfunded; official flows for infrastructure in developing countries reached USD 78.7 billion in 2024, of which USD 26.7 billion went to transport.²¹⁵

2.5Health

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008

   Road traffic crashes killed 1.19 million people in 2021, 92% of deaths fall in low- and middle-income countries, and more than half are pedestrians, cyclists and motorcyclists; a WHO fact sheet of July 2026 gives 1.16 million without a reference year.¹¹¹²

2.6Data and digital

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DAT-009

   6.3 billion people (76%) use the Internet in 2026 and 2 billion do not; use is 93% in high-income and 32% in low-income countries, and 3G or better covers 96% of people.¹⁰⁵⁸

2.7Energy

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-010

   Electric car sales reached 21 million in 2025, one in four cars sold; electric heavy trucks in China passed 200 000 units; oil use for aviation rose 3.6% while gasoline and diesel demand were virtually unchanged.¹³

2.8Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a chokepoint closure that coincides with weather-driven port downtime and an operational cyber incident at a major hub. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 2UNCTAD (ed.), Strait of Hormuz Disruptions: Implications for Global Trade and Development, rapid analysis dated 10 March 2026, from Clarksons Research, EIA, LSEG, Kpler and other data. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 1UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025: Staying the course in turbulent waters (full report and overview). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 3UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz shipping disruptions raise risks for energy, fertilisers and vulnerable economies, media alert UNCTAD/PRESS/MA/2026/003, Geneva, 10 March 2026. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 5UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 9 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 (indicators 9.1.2 and 9.a.1) and 2025 (indicator 9.c.1). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 4UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz disruption shows why early-warning data matters, news item (about 95% fall in ship transits; tracking tool described). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 16Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E. and Hall, J.W., Systemic risks from climate-related disruptions at ports, Nature Climate Change 13, 804 to 806, 2023 (abstract and introduction opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 17Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E., Hall, J.W. et al., Multi-hazard risk to global port infrastructure and resulting trade and logistics losses, Communications Earth and Environment 4, 2023 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 18Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E. and Hall, J.W., Ports’ criticality in international trade and global supply-chains, Nature Communications 13, 2022 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 14Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. World Bank, Washington, 2019 (full report PDF). Observation year 2019 (analysis of earlier data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 15Koks, E.E. et al., A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets, Nature Communications 10, 2677, 2019 (abstract via Crossref). Springer Nature. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 22NTSB (ed.), Contact of Containership Dali with Francis Scott Key Bridge and Subsequent Bridge Collapse, investigation page with probable cause and recommendations. National Transportation Safety Board, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 21Global Infrastructure Hub (ed.), Global Infrastructure Outlook, press release of 25 July 2017 (USD 94 trillion need to 2040, USD 97 trillion with SDG access targets, USD 18 trillion unfunded). Global Infrastructure Hub, Sydney. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 11WHO (ed.), Global status report on road safety 2023, Geneva, 13 December 2023 (publication page). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 12WHO (ed.), Road traffic injuries, fact sheet updated 20 July 2026 (about 1.16 million deaths a year; 92% in low- and middle-income countries; reference year not stated). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year not stated on the page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 10ITU (ed.), Measuring digital development: Facts and Figures 2026 (publication page with key findings). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 8DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, individuals using the Internet (series IT.NET.USER.ZS, ITU source), API read, database last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 13IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (PDF, opened from a copy of the published report hosted by a third party). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through infrastructure and logistics, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries infrastructure and logistics risk into each domain.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on infrastructure and logistics, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025: Staying the course in turbulent waters (full report and overview). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2UNCTAD (ed.), Strait of Hormuz Disruptions: Implications for Global Trade and Development, rapid analysis dated 10 March 2026, from Clarksons Research, EIA, LSEG, Kpler and other data. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 14Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. World Bank, Washington, 2019 (full report PDF). Observation year 2019 (analysis of earlier data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 11WHO (ed.), Global status report on road safety 2023, Geneva, 13 December 2023 (publication page). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 12WHO (ed.), Road traffic injuries, fact sheet updated 20 July 2026 (about 1.16 million deaths a year; 92% in low- and middle-income countries; reference year not stated). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year not stated on the page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 10ITU (ed.), Measuring digital development: Facts and Figures 2026 (publication page with key findings). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 16Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E. and Hall, J.W., Systemic risks from climate-related disruptions at ports, Nature Climate Change 13, 804 to 806, 2023 (abstract and introduction opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 19Thacker, S. et al., Infrastructure for sustainable development, Nature Sustainability 2, 324 to 331, 2019 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 15Koks, E.E. et al., A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets, Nature Communications 10, 2677, 2019 (abstract via Crossref). Springer Nature. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 32Autoridad del Canal de Panama (ed.), Panama Canal Authority, home page statistics (13,404 transits in 2025). Panama Canal Authority, Balboa. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 13IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (PDF, opened from a copy of the published report hosted by a third party). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 21Global Infrastructure Hub (ed.), Global Infrastructure Outlook, press release of 25 July 2017 (USD 94 trillion need to 2040, USD 97 trillion with SDG access targets, USD 18 trillion unfunded). Global Infrastructure Hub, Sydney. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 5UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 9 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 (indicators 9.1.2 and 9.a.1) and 2025 (indicator 9.c.1). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 31WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, press release of 23 March 2026 (2025 about 1.43 °C above the 1850 to 1900 average). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 9DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, urban population as a share of total population (series SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS, UN source), API read, database last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 23ENISA (ed.), ENISA Transport Threat Landscape, March 2023 (publication page and report PDF; incidents January 2021 to October 2022). European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, Athens. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 24European Commission (ed.), Trans-European transport network (TEN-T), policy page on Regulation (EU) 2024/1679 (core network by 2030, extended core by 2040, comprehensive by 2050). Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 25European Commission (ed.), NIS2 Directive: securing network and information systems, policy page on Directive (EU) 2022/2555 (earlier directive repealed from 18 October 2024). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 17Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E., Hall, J.W. et al., Multi-hazard risk to global port infrastructure and resulting trade and logistics losses, Communications Earth and Environment 4, 2023 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS09-TRD-001

   Maritime chokepoint closure

   Driver

   military escalation or blockage at a strait or canal²¹

   Exposure

   importing economies, tanker and container trades, fertiliser users

   Vulnerability

   few bypass routes; long rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope¹

   Capacity

   rerouting, stock holding and insurance markets

   Cascade

   TRD → ENE, FOO, FIN

   Horizon

   1 to 3 years

2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS09-INF-002

   Port and coastal hazard downtime

   Driver

   tropical cyclones, extreme wind, flooding and sea level rise¹⁶¹⁷³¹

   Exposure

   86% of ports face more than three hazards¹⁷; island economies most reliant¹⁸

   Vulnerability

   engineering standards and recovery times vary widely¹⁷

   Capacity

   protection works, operating thresholds and backup ports

   Cascade

   INF → TRD, FIN, FOO

   Horizon

   1 to 10 years

3. InferredEQL 3RSK-GS09-INF-003

   Ageing and unassessed structures

   Driver

   deferred maintenance and impact risk from vessels²²²⁰

   Exposure

   bridges and approaches near ports and shipping lanes

   Vulnerability

   missing vulnerability assessments²²; investment gaps²⁰

   Capacity

   inspection, retrofit and emergency detour plans

   Cascade

   INF → HLT, TRD

   Horizon

   1 to 10 years

4. InferredEQL 3RSK-GS09-DAT-004

   Cyber disruption of transport operations

   Driver

   ransomware and data-related threats against transport operators²³

   Exposure

   airlines, port authorities, rail operators and vehicle makers

   Vulnerability

   shared suppliers and operational technology; limited incident reporting²³

   Capacity

   incident reporting duties and operator preparedness²⁵

   Cascade

   DAT → INF → TRD, HLT

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for infrastructure and logistics at the global level.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 2UNCTAD (ed.), Strait of Hormuz Disruptions: Implications for Global Trade and Development, rapid analysis dated 10 March 2026, from Clarksons Research, EIA, LSEG, Kpler and other data. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 1UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025: Staying the course in turbulent waters (full report and overview). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 16Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E. and Hall, J.W., Systemic risks from climate-related disruptions at ports, Nature Climate Change 13, 804 to 806, 2023 (abstract and introduction opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 17Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E., Hall, J.W. et al., Multi-hazard risk to global port infrastructure and resulting trade and logistics losses, Communications Earth and Environment 4, 2023 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 31WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, press release of 23 March 2026 (2025 about 1.43 °C above the 1850 to 1900 average). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 18Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E. and Hall, J.W., Ports’ criticality in international trade and global supply-chains, Nature Communications 13, 2022 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 22NTSB (ed.), Contact of Containership Dali with Francis Scott Key Bridge and Subsequent Bridge Collapse, investigation page with probable cause and recommendations. National Transportation Safety Board, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 20ASCE (ed.), 2025 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure (summary page: overall grade C, grades from B in ports to D in stormwater and transit, USD 3.6 trillion investment gap over ten years). American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 23ENISA (ed.), ENISA Transport Threat Landscape, March 2023 (publication page and report PDF; incidents January 2021 to October 2022). European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, Athens. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 25European Commission (ed.), NIS2 Directive: securing network and information systems, policy page on Directive (EU) 2022/2555 (earlier directive repealed from 18 October 2024). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 14Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. World Bank, Washington, 2019 (full report PDF). Observation year 2019 (analysis of earlier data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 4UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz disruption shows why early-warning data matters, news item (about 95% fall in ship transits; tracking tool described). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 24European Commission (ed.), Trans-European transport network (TEN-T), policy page on Regulation (EU) 2024/1679 (core network by 2030, extended core by 2040, comprehensive by 2050). Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Directive (EU) 2022/2557 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the resilience of critical entities, Official Journal of the European Union, 2022; the legal text returned a challenge page and the transport scope is cited from a search summary. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 32Autoridad del Canal de Panama (ed.), Panama Canal Authority, home page statistics (13,404 transits in 2025). Panama Canal Authority, Balboa. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 30IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II, Chapter 6: Cities, Settlements and Key Infrastructure (chapter PDF opened). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 5UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 9 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 (indicators 9.1.2 and 9.a.1) and 2025 (indicator 9.c.1). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 26IMO (ed.), Initial IMO GHG Strategy, hot topic page (notes that the 2023 strategy has been adopted). International Maritime Organization, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 19Thacker, S. et al., Infrastructure for sustainable development, Nature Sustainability 2, 324 to 331, 2019 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-GS09-HRM-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

a closure of a major strait or canal that coincides with weather-driven downtime at a large port and an operational cyber incident at a major hub

Analogues

the 2026 Hormuz disruption; Suez tonnage in 2024 and 2025; the 2021 to 2022 transport incidents²¹²³

Interventions

none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   TRD → ENE

   transits through a chokepoint fall; tanker and bunker costs rise

   2026

2. 2

   CLI → INF

   a storm or heat event closes a large port while diversions pile up

   2023

3. 3

   DAT → INF

   a cyber incident halts scheduling at a hub

   2022

4. 4

   INF → FOO

   fertiliser and food freight are delayed and costs pass through

   2026

5. 5

   INF → HLT

   supplies and access to care slow; crashes rise on diverted roads

   2024

6. 6

   TRD → FIN

   freight, insurance and import bills strain budgets

   2026

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-GS09-HRM-01 would travel through Global Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Global Infrastructure and Logistics 2026, scenario SCN-GS09-HRM-01 (2026); Global Infrastructure and Logistics 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 2UNCTAD (ed.), Strait of Hormuz Disruptions: Implications for Global Trade and Development, rapid analysis dated 10 March 2026, from Clarksons Research, EIA, LSEG, Kpler and other data. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 1UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025: Staying the course in turbulent waters (full report and overview). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 23ENISA (ed.), ENISA Transport Threat Landscape, March 2023 (publication page and report PDF; incidents January 2021 to October 2022). European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, Athens. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for infrastructure and logistics. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 infrastructure and logistics readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. Nexus Standards texts that relate to this edition are cited as preparatory working draft (2026). The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• DEFERRED
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers infrastructure and logistics assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about the world’s infrastructure, transport and logistics systems and its couplings?

Sources searched

agency flagships; regulator and investigation reports; peer-reviewed port and network risk literature; statistics

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 21Global Infrastructure Hub (ed.), Global Infrastructure Outlook, press release of 25 July 2017 (USD 94 trillion need to 2040, USD 97 trillion with SDG access targets, USD 18 trillion unfunded). Global Infrastructure Hub, Sydney. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 16Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E. and Hall, J.W., Systemic risks from climate-related disruptions at ports, Nature Climate Change 13, 804 to 806, 2023 (abstract and introduction opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 2UNCTAD (ed.), Strait of Hormuz Disruptions: Implications for Global Trade and Development, rapid analysis dated 10 March 2026, from Clarksons Research, EIA, LSEG, Kpler and other data. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 24European Commission (ed.), Trans-European transport network (TEN-T), policy page on Regulation (EU) 2024/1679 (core network by 2030, extended core by 2040, comprehensive by 2050). Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 25European Commission (ed.), NIS2 Directive: securing network and information systems, policy page on Directive (EU) 2022/2555 (earlier directive repealed from 18 October 2024). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Directive (EU) 2022/2557 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the resilience of critical entities, Official Journal of the European Union, 2022; the legal text returned a challenge page and the transport scope is cited from a search summary. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 26IMO (ed.), Initial IMO GHG Strategy, hot topic page (notes that the 2023 strategy has been adopted). International Maritime Organization, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 27DNV (ed.), Decision on the IMO Net-Zero Framework delayed for one year, news item of 2025 on the second extraordinary session of the Marine Environment Protection Committee. DNV, Oslo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: IMO (ed.), Marine Environment Protection Committee, extraordinary session of October 2025 and the session of October 2026 on the Net-Zero Framework; only the DNV summary [27] was opened. International Maritime Organization, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 55000:2024, Asset management: vocabulary, overview and principles. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva; the page was blocked. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 28000:2022, Security and resilience: security management systems for the supply chain. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva; the page was blocked. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 22301:2019, Security and resilience: business continuity management systems. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva; the page was blocked. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMO (ed.), International Ship and Port Facility Security Code, 2004 (SOLAS chapter XI-2), cited from memory. International Maritime Organization, London. Observation year 2004. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 15Koks, E.E. et al., A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets, Nature Communications 10, 2677, 2019 (abstract via Crossref). Springer Nature. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 18Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E. and Hall, J.W., Ports’ criticality in international trade and global supply-chains, Nature Communications 13, 2022 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 17Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E., Hall, J.W. et al., Multi-hazard risk to global port infrastructure and resulting trade and logistics losses, Communications Earth and Environment 4, 2023 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 19Thacker, S. et al., Infrastructure for sustainable development, Nature Sustainability 2, 324 to 331, 2019 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 30IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II, Chapter 6: Cities, Settlements and Key Infrastructure (chapter PDF opened). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Colon, C., Hallegatte, S. and Rozenberg, J., Criticality analysis of a country’s transport network via an agent-based supply chain model, Nature Sustainability 4, 209 to 215, 2021; bibliographic record read via Crossref, abstract not read. Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E. and Hall, J.W., Port disruptions due to natural disasters: Insights into port and logistics resilience, Transportation Research Part D 85, 102393, 2020; bibliographic record read via Crossref, abstract not read. Elsevier. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 1UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025: Staying the course in turbulent waters (full report and overview). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 14Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. World Bank, Washington, 2019 (full report PDF). Observation year 2019 (analysis of earlier data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 11WHO (ed.), Global status report on road safety 2023, Geneva, 13 December 2023 (publication page). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 10ITU (ed.), Measuring digital development: Facts and Figures 2026 (publication page with key findings). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 13IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (PDF, opened from a copy of the published report hosted by a third party). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2024: Navigating maritime chokepoints; named in the SDG 9 storyline [5], not opened. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITF (ed.), ITF Transport Outlook 2023. International Transport Forum at the OECD, Paris; the page returned an access error and no figure is used. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025, Resilience Pays: Financing and Investing for our Future; the page was not accessible and no figure from search summaries is used. UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 5UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 9 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 (indicators 9.1.2 and 9.a.1) and 2025 (indicator 9.c.1). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 6DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, container port traffic (TEU), series IS.SHP.GOOD.TU, API read, database last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, air transport passengers carried and freight (series IS.AIR.PSGR and IS.AIR.GOOD.MT.K1, ICAO source) and rail series (no values returned), API read, database last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 8DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, individuals using the Internet (series IT.NET.USER.ZS, ITU source), API read, database last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 9DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, urban population as a share of total population (series SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS, UN source), API read, database last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34. 20ASCE (ed.), 2025 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure (summary page: overall grade C, grades from B in ports to D in stormwater and transit, USD 3.6 trillion investment gap over ten years). American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35. 28ACI World (ed.), Biannual global air travel demand update, 30 September 2025 (9.4 billion passengers in 2024; 9.8 billion projected for 2025). Airports Council International, Montreal. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36. 29IATA (ed.), Industry outlook press release, December 2025 (5.2 billion passengers expected in 2026, up 4.4% on 2025; cargo 71.6 million tonnes). International Air Transport Association, Montreal. Observation year 2026 (expectation). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: ICAO (ed.), Air transport statistics and The World of Air Transport; the site returned an access error and no figure from it is used. International Civil Aviation Organization, Montreal. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), Connecting to Compete 2023: Trade Logistics in the Global Economy, the Logistics Performance Index; the site was not accessible and no value is used. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
39. 22NTSB (ed.), Contact of Containership Dali with Francis Scott Key Bridge and Subsequent Bridge Collapse, investigation page with probable cause and recommendations. National Transportation Safety Board, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
40. 23ENISA (ed.), ENISA Transport Threat Landscape, March 2023 (publication page and report PDF; incidents January 2021 to October 2022). European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, Athens. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
41. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), Rural Access Index, SDG indicator 9.1.1; the custodian storyline in the SDG Extended Report is empty and the index was not retrieved. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
42. 3UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz shipping disruptions raise risks for energy, fertilisers and vulnerable economies, media alert UNCTAD/PRESS/MA/2026/003, Geneva, 10 March 2026. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
43. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNCTAD (ed.), Strait of Hormuz tracking dashboard, launched April 2026; known only from search summaries. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. L-01

   How would a chokepoint closure that coincides with port weather downtime and a cyber incident travel through fuel, food and health supply at once?

   INI-GS09-HRM-01 · compound chokepoint test; first output: concurrency analysis for six corridors.

2. L-02

   What is the current condition and maintenance backlog of roads, bridges and ports outside the United States?

   INI-GS09-CND-02 · condition register; first output: asset condition table by region.

3. L-03

   Which ports and corridors are single points of failure for island and landlocked economies?

   INI-GS09-PRT-03 · port dependence; first output: dependence map.

4. L-04

   How reliable is access to all-season roads and rail for rural and remote communities?

   INI-GS09-ACC-04 · access and reliability; first output: rural access table.

5. L-05

   Where do transport operations depend on a few digital suppliers and networks, and what has failed?

   INI-GS09-CYB-05 · operational technology dependence; first output: incident and dependence register.

6. L-06

   Which shared corridors lack operational contingency arrangements for diversion?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: arrangement overlay.

7. L-07

   How do heat waves and storms change capacity of rail, roads, airports and ports together?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. L-08

   Which infrastructure capabilities have been tested in real disruptions, and which are only planned?

   Infrastructure capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 infrastructure portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

The infrastructure edition reads national infrastructure chapters, regional corridor and port evidence and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the Canada and global chapters are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

1. 01

   National infrastructure chapters

   transport and logistics system of each national edition

   DRAFTED · further national baselines

2. 02

   Corridor and port evidence

   shared sea lanes, canals, rail corridors and hubs

   PLANNED · regional Baseline Editions

3. 03

   Infrastructure sector model

   the global infrastructure system of systems

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

4. 04

   Global and strategic links

   GLB · SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems · SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints

   PLANNED · strategic baselines

5. 05

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

6. 06

   Global Infrastructure Report

   this series

   BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

7. 07

   Evidence and correction

   one graph, many projections

   OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the infrastructure and logistics candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-GS09-2027-01 · Compound chokepoint Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• annual publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 2UNCTAD (ed.), Strait of Hormuz Disruptions: Implications for Global Trade and Development, rapid analysis dated 10 March 2026, from Clarksons Research, EIA, LSEG, Kpler and other data. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 1UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025: Staying the course in turbulent waters (full report and overview). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 16Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E. and Hall, J.W., Systemic risks from climate-related disruptions at ports, Nature Climate Change 13, 804 to 806, 2023 (abstract and introduction opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 17Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E., Hall, J.W. et al., Multi-hazard risk to global port infrastructure and resulting trade and logistics losses, Communications Earth and Environment 4, 2023 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

8.1Infrastructure and water

Water levels and floods shape routes. Flooding causes about 73% of expected direct damage to road and rail, and canals and rivers carry freight only while levels allow.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• GS-10 Cities and Urban Systems
• SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints

8.2Infrastructure and food

Food moves on ports, roads and cold chains. The 2026 Hormuz disruption showed that the link runs through fertiliser freight as well as fuel.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• GS-10 Cities and Urban Systems
• SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints

8.3Infrastructure and health

Infrastructure shapes health through safe roads, access to care and connected services. Road crashes remain the clearest measured harm.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• GS-10 Cities and Urban Systems
• SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints

8.4Infrastructure and nature

Infrastructure influences almost every goal for people and the planet. Shipping and corridors also press on climate and habitats, and the nature side of the ledger is thin in this edition.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• GS-10 Cities and Urban Systems
• SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints

8.5Infrastructure, energy and extremes

Transport now draws on power as well as fuel, and sudden failures come from chokepoints, storms, structures and software. These are the channels the 2024 to 2026 evidence shows.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-02 Energy
• GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• GS-10 Cities and Urban Systems
• SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 15Koks, E.E. et al., A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets, Nature Communications 10, 2677, 2019 (abstract via Crossref). Springer Nature. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 32Autoridad del Canal de Panama (ed.), Panama Canal Authority, home page statistics (13,404 transits in 2025). Panama Canal Authority, Balboa. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 1UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025: Staying the course in turbulent waters (full report and overview). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 17Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E., Hall, J.W. et al., Multi-hazard risk to global port infrastructure and resulting trade and logistics losses, Communications Earth and Environment 4, 2023 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 30IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II, Chapter 6: Cities, Settlements and Key Infrastructure (chapter PDF opened). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 2UNCTAD (ed.), Strait of Hormuz Disruptions: Implications for Global Trade and Development, rapid analysis dated 10 March 2026, from Clarksons Research, EIA, LSEG, Kpler and other data. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 3UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz shipping disruptions raise risks for energy, fertilisers and vulnerable economies, media alert UNCTAD/PRESS/MA/2026/003, Geneva, 10 March 2026. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 18Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E. and Hall, J.W., Ports’ criticality in international trade and global supply-chains, Nature Communications 13, 2022 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 11WHO (ed.), Global status report on road safety 2023, Geneva, 13 December 2023 (publication page). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 12WHO (ed.), Road traffic injuries, fact sheet updated 20 July 2026 (about 1.16 million deaths a year; 92% in low- and middle-income countries; reference year not stated). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year not stated on the page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 10ITU (ed.), Measuring digital development: Facts and Figures 2026 (publication page with key findings). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 5UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 9 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 (indicators 9.1.2 and 9.a.1) and 2025 (indicator 9.c.1). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 14Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. World Bank, Washington, 2019 (full report PDF). Observation year 2019 (analysis of earlier data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 19Thacker, S. et al., Infrastructure for sustainable development, Nature Sustainability 2, 324 to 331, 2019 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 31WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, press release of 23 March 2026 (2025 about 1.43 °C above the 1850 to 1900 average). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 26IMO (ed.), Initial IMO GHG Strategy, hot topic page (notes that the 2023 strategy has been adopted). International Maritime Organization, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 27DNV (ed.), Decision on the IMO Net-Zero Framework delayed for one year, news item of 2025 on the second extraordinary session of the Marine Environment Protection Committee. DNV, Oslo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 13IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (PDF, opened from a copy of the published report hosted by a third party). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 23ENISA (ed.), ENISA Transport Threat Landscape, March 2023 (publication page and report PDF; incidents January 2021 to October 2022). European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, Athens. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 22NTSB (ed.), Contact of Containership Dali with Francis Scott Key Bridge and Subsequent Bridge Collapse, investigation page with probable cause and recommendations. National Transportation Safety Board, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, Infrastructure and Logistics Sector Model v0

Model ID

MDL-GS09-INFRASTRUCTURE · v0.1

Purpose

represent the global infrastructure, transport and logistics system and its couplings to water, energy, food, health and biodiversity

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID

DC-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-B0

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

50 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

the 2027 infrastructure and logistics annual cut

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

• UNCTAD¹: port waiting times and call data
• UNCTAD⁴⁴: tracking series for 2026
• World Bank⁷: air and rail series after 2023
• ENISA⁴⁵: transport incidents since 2022

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition: daily ship transits through a chokepoint

Construct

number of ship transits counted in a day through a strait or canal

Unit

ships a day

Method

vessel position data from a commercial shipping intelligence provider, compiled by UNCTAD

Source

UNCTAD, Strait of Hormuz Disruptions, March 2026²

Uncertainty

vessel classes and thresholds as defined by the provider; a later UNCTAD note gives a fall of about 95%⁴

Known limits

counts ships, not tonnage or cargo value; the 2026 series after March is not bound here

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF (ed.), PortWatch daily chokepoint transit series; the daily service returned an access error and only a static chokepoint list was read, from which no figure is used. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNCTAD (ed.), Strait of Hormuz tracking dashboard, launched April 2026; known only from search summaries. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), Rural Access Index, SDG indicator 9.1.1; the custodian storyline in the SDG Extended Report is empty and the index was not retrieved. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, air transport passengers carried and freight (series IS.AIR.PSGR and IS.AIR.GOOD.MT.K1, ICAO source) and rail series (no values returned), API read, database last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITF (ed.), ITF Transport Outlook 2023. International Transport Forum at the OECD, Paris; the page returned an access error and no figure is used. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: ICAO (ed.), Air transport statistics and The World of Air Transport; the site returned an access error and no figure from it is used. International Civil Aviation Organization, Montreal. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 12WHO (ed.), Road traffic injuries, fact sheet updated 20 July 2026 (about 1.16 million deaths a year; 92% in low- and middle-income countries; reference year not stated). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year not stated on the page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 20ASCE (ed.), 2025 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure (summary page: overall grade C, grades from B in ports to D in stormwater and transit, USD 3.6 trillion investment gap over ten years). American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 21Global Infrastructure Hub (ed.), Global Infrastructure Outlook, press release of 25 July 2017 (USD 94 trillion need to 2040, USD 97 trillion with SDG access targets, USD 18 trillion unfunded). Global Infrastructure Hub, Sydney. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), Connecting to Compete 2023: Trade Logistics in the Global Economy, the Logistics Performance Index; the site was not accessible and no value is used. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: ENISA (ed.), ENISA Threat Landscape 2026, published 22 September 2026; only the listing entry was read. European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, Athens. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 31WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, press release of 23 March 2026 (2025 about 1.43 °C above the 1850 to 1900 average). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025, Resilience Pays: Financing and Investing for our Future; the page was not accessible and no figure from search summaries is used. UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: IMO (ed.), Marine Environment Protection Committee, extraordinary session of October 2025 and the session of October 2026 on the Net-Zero Framework; only the DNV summary [27] was opened. International Maritime Organization, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Directive (EU) 2022/2557 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the resilience of critical entities, Official Journal of the European Union, 2022; the legal text returned a challenge page and the transport scope is cited from a search summary. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global EV Outlook 2026; the page was not accessible and figures from news summaries are not used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 1UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025: Staying the course in turbulent waters (full report and overview). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 2UNCTAD (ed.), Strait of Hormuz Disruptions: Implications for Global Trade and Development, rapid analysis dated 10 March 2026, from Clarksons Research, EIA, LSEG, Kpler and other data. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 4UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz disruption shows why early-warning data matters, news item (about 95% fall in ship transits; tracking tool described). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• TRD
• INF
• FIN
• HLT
• DAT
• CLI
• ENE
• FOO
• WAT
• BIO

B.3Regional reading: infrastructure and logistics across ten clusters

Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.

B.4Corridor card: Strait of Hormuz

• chokepoint
• strait
• oil and fertiliser
• seaborne

Systems in view

fuel, fertiliser, shipping, insurance

Defining events

disruption to shipping from late February 2026²

Couplings

TRD → ENE fuel supply; TRD → FOO fertiliser; TRD → FIN freight and insurance cost

Capability evidence

rapid analysis and tracking published by UNCTAD²⁴

Gaps

transits after March 2026; bypass capacity

Agenda items

L-01 · L-03

B.5How countries appear in the infrastructure and logistics edition

Countries enter the infrastructure edition through the infrastructure and logistics chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ranked.

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

How to read a country card

• Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
• Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
• Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
• Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

DC-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025: Staying the course in turbulent waters (full report and overview). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 5UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 9 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 (indicators 9.1.2 and 9.a.1) and 2025 (indicator 9.c.1). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 6DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, container port traffic (TEU), series IS.SHP.GOOD.TU, API read, database last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 2UNCTAD (ed.), Strait of Hormuz Disruptions: Implications for Global Trade and Development, rapid analysis dated 10 March 2026, from Clarksons Research, EIA, LSEG, Kpler and other data. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 32Autoridad del Canal de Panama (ed.), Panama Canal Authority, home page statistics (13,404 transits in 2025). Panama Canal Authority, Balboa. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, air transport passengers carried and freight (series IS.AIR.PSGR and IS.AIR.GOOD.MT.K1, ICAO source) and rail series (no values returned), API read, database last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 28ACI World (ed.), Biannual global air travel demand update, 30 September 2025 (9.4 billion passengers in 2024; 9.8 billion projected for 2025). Airports Council International, Montreal. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 29IATA (ed.), Industry outlook press release, December 2025 (5.2 billion passengers expected in 2026, up 4.4% on 2025; cargo 71.6 million tonnes). International Air Transport Association, Montreal. Observation year 2026 (expectation). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 14Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. World Bank, Washington, 2019 (full report PDF). Observation year 2019 (analysis of earlier data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 15Koks, E.E. et al., A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets, Nature Communications 10, 2677, 2019 (abstract via Crossref). Springer Nature. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 17Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E., Hall, J.W. et al., Multi-hazard risk to global port infrastructure and resulting trade and logistics losses, Communications Earth and Environment 4, 2023 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 11WHO (ed.), Global status report on road safety 2023, Geneva, 13 December 2023 (publication page). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 12WHO (ed.), Road traffic injuries, fact sheet updated 20 July 2026 (about 1.16 million deaths a year; 92% in low- and middle-income countries; reference year not stated). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year not stated on the page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 10ITU (ed.), Measuring digital development: Facts and Figures 2026 (publication page with key findings). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 8DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, individuals using the Internet (series IT.NET.USER.ZS, ITU source), API read, database last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 21Global Infrastructure Hub (ed.), Global Infrastructure Outlook, press release of 25 July 2017 (USD 94 trillion need to 2040, USD 97 trillion with SDG access targets, USD 18 trillion unfunded). Global Infrastructure Hub, Sydney. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 13IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (PDF, opened from a copy of the published report hosted by a third party). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 9DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, urban population as a share of total population (series SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS, UN source), API read, database last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 22NTSB (ed.), Contact of Containership Dali with Francis Scott Key Bridge and Subsequent Bridge Collapse, investigation page with probable cause and recommendations. National Transportation Safety Board, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 23ENISA (ed.), ENISA Transport Threat Landscape, March 2023 (publication page and report PDF; incidents January 2021 to October 2022). European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, Athens. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 20ASCE (ed.), 2025 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure (summary page: overall grade C, grades from B in ports to D in stormwater and transit, USD 3.6 trillion investment gap over ten years). American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 24European Commission (ed.), Trans-European transport network (TEN-T), policy page on Regulation (EU) 2024/1679 (core network by 2030, extended core by 2040, comprehensive by 2050). Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 25European Commission (ed.), NIS2 Directive: securing network and information systems, policy page on Directive (EU) 2022/2555 (earlier directive repealed from 18 October 2024). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 16Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E. and Hall, J.W., Systemic risks from climate-related disruptions at ports, Nature Climate Change 13, 804 to 806, 2023 (abstract and introduction opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 18Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E. and Hall, J.W., Ports’ criticality in international trade and global supply-chains, Nature Communications 13, 2022 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 4UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz disruption shows why early-warning data matters, news item (about 95% fall in ship transits; tracking tool described). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

C.150 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025: Staying the course in turbulent waters (full report and overview). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
2. 2UNCTAD (ed.), Strait of Hormuz Disruptions: Implications for Global Trade and Development, rapid analysis dated 10 March 2026, from Clarksons Research, EIA, LSEG, Kpler and other data. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
3. 3UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz shipping disruptions raise risks for energy, fertilisers and vulnerable economies, media alert UNCTAD/PRESS/MA/2026/003, Geneva, 10 March 2026. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
4. 4UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz disruption shows why early-warning data matters, news item (about 95% fall in ship transits; tracking tool described). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4
5. 5UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 9 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 (indicators 9.1.2 and 9.a.1) and 2025 (indicator 9.c.1). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
6. 6DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, container port traffic (TEU), series IS.SHP.GOOD.TU, API read, database last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6
7. 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, air transport passengers carried and freight (series IS.AIR.PSGR and IS.AIR.GOOD.MT.K1, ICAO source) and rail series (no values returned), API read, database last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
8. 8DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, individuals using the Internet (series IT.NET.USER.ZS, ITU source), API read, database last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
9. 9DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, urban population as a share of total population (series SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS, UN source), API read, database last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
10. 10ITU (ed.), Measuring digital development: Facts and Figures 2026 (publication page with key findings). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
11. 11WHO (ed.), Global status report on road safety 2023, Geneva, 13 December 2023 (publication page). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
12. 12WHO (ed.), Road traffic injuries, fact sheet updated 20 July 2026 (about 1.16 million deaths a year; 92% in low- and middle-income countries; reference year not stated). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year not stated on the page. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
13. 13IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (PDF, opened from a copy of the published report hosted by a third party). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
14. 14Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. World Bank, Washington, 2019 (full report PDF). Observation year 2019 (analysis of earlier data). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
15. 15Koks, E.E. et al., A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets, Nature Communications 10, 2677, 2019 (abstract via Crossref). Springer Nature. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
16. 16Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E. and Hall, J.W., Systemic risks from climate-related disruptions at ports, Nature Climate Change 13, 804 to 806, 2023 (abstract and introduction opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7
17. 17Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E., Hall, J.W. et al., Multi-hazard risk to global port infrastructure and resulting trade and logistics losses, Communications Earth and Environment 4, 2023 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
18. 18Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E. and Hall, J.W., Ports’ criticality in international trade and global supply-chains, Nature Communications 13, 2022 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
19. 19Thacker, S. et al., Infrastructure for sustainable development, Nature Sustainability 2, 324 to 331, 2019 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
20. 20ASCE (ed.), 2025 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure (summary page: overall grade C, grades from B in ports to D in stormwater and transit, USD 3.6 trillion investment gap over ten years). American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
21. 21Global Infrastructure Hub (ed.), Global Infrastructure Outlook, press release of 25 July 2017 (USD 94 trillion need to 2040, USD 97 trillion with SDG access targets, USD 18 trillion unfunded). Global Infrastructure Hub, Sydney. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
22. 22NTSB (ed.), Contact of Containership Dali with Francis Scott Key Bridge and Subsequent Bridge Collapse, investigation page with probable cause and recommendations. National Transportation Safety Board, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
23. 23ENISA (ed.), ENISA Transport Threat Landscape, March 2023 (publication page and report PDF; incidents January 2021 to October 2022). European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, Athens. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
24. 24European Commission (ed.), Trans-European transport network (TEN-T), policy page on Regulation (EU) 2024/1679 (core network by 2030, extended core by 2040, comprehensive by 2050). Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
25. 25European Commission (ed.), NIS2 Directive: securing network and information systems, policy page on Directive (EU) 2022/2555 (earlier directive repealed from 18 October 2024). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
26. 26IMO (ed.), Initial IMO GHG Strategy, hot topic page (notes that the 2023 strategy has been adopted). International Maritime Organization, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
27. 27DNV (ed.), Decision on the IMO Net-Zero Framework delayed for one year, news item of 2025 on the second extraordinary session of the Marine Environment Protection Committee. DNV, Oslo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
28. 28ACI World (ed.), Biannual global air travel demand update, 30 September 2025 (9.4 billion passengers in 2024; 9.8 billion projected for 2025). Airports Council International, Montreal. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
29. 29IATA (ed.), Industry outlook press release, December 2025 (5.2 billion passengers expected in 2026, up 4.4% on 2025; cargo 71.6 million tonnes). International Air Transport Association, Montreal. Observation year 2026 (expectation). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
30. 30IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II, Chapter 6: Cities, Settlements and Key Infrastructure (chapter PDF opened). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
31. 31WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, press release of 23 March 2026 (2025 about 1.43 °C above the 1850 to 1900 average). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8
32. 32Autoridad del Canal de Panama (ed.), Panama Canal Authority, home page statistics (13,404 transits in 2025). Panama Canal Authority, Balboa. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8
33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF (ed.), PortWatch daily chokepoint transit series; the daily service returned an access error and only a static chokepoint list was read, from which no figure is used. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITF (ed.), ITF Transport Outlook 2023. International Transport Forum at the OECD, Paris; the page returned an access error and no figure is used. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: ICAO (ed.), Air transport statistics and The World of Air Transport; the site returned an access error and no figure from it is used. International Civil Aviation Organization, Montreal. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025, Resilience Pays: Financing and Investing for our Future; the page was not accessible and no figure from search summaries is used. UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), Connecting to Compete 2023: Trade Logistics in the Global Economy, the Logistics Performance Index; the site was not accessible and no value is used. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global EV Outlook 2026; the page was not accessible and figures from news summaries are not used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Directive (EU) 2022/2557 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the resilience of critical entities, Official Journal of the European Union, 2022; the legal text returned a challenge page and the transport scope is cited from a search summary. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: IMO (ed.), Marine Environment Protection Committee, extraordinary session of October 2025 and the session of October 2026 on the Net-Zero Framework; only the DNV summary [27] was opened. International Maritime Organization, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 55000:2024, Asset management: vocabulary, overview and principles. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva; the page was blocked. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 28000:2022, Security and resilience: security management systems for the supply chain. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva; the page was blocked. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 22301:2019, Security and resilience: business continuity management systems. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva; the page was blocked. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNCTAD (ed.), Strait of Hormuz tracking dashboard, launched April 2026; known only from search summaries. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: ENISA (ed.), ENISA Threat Landscape 2026, published 22 September 2026; only the listing entry was read. European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, Athens. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Colon, C., Hallegatte, S. and Rozenberg, J., Criticality analysis of a country’s transport network via an agent-based supply chain model, Nature Sustainability 4, 209 to 215, 2021; bibliographic record read via Crossref, abstract not read. Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
47. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E. and Hall, J.W., Port disruptions due to natural disasters: Insights into port and logistics resilience, Transportation Research Part D 85, 102393, 2020; bibliographic record read via Crossref, abstract not read. Elsevier. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
48. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMO (ed.), International Ship and Port Facility Security Code, 2004 (SOLAS chapter XI-2), cited from memory. International Maritime Organization, London. Observation year 2004. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
49. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2024: Navigating maritime chokepoints; named in the SDG 9 storyline [5], not opened. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
50. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), Rural Access Index, SDG indicator 9.1.1; the custodian storyline in the SDG Extended Report is empty and the index was not retrieved. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6

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