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Systems and sectors at baseline

6 min read0 figures2 tables19 notesNR-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Infrastructure is what the other systems travel on
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Chokepoint closure with port downtime and a cyber incident
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

TRD · Trade

Seaborne trade volume

12,720million tons

up 2.2%; ton-miles up 5.9%.

Reported2024UNCTAD1

TRD · Chokepoints

Fall in daily Hormuz ship transits

97%

129 a day in February 2026 to about 4.

Reported2026UNCTAD2

INF · Resilience

Disruption cost in low- and middle-income countries

391 to 647USD billion a year

a 2019 estimate.

Reported2019World Bank14

HLT · Health

Road traffic deaths

1.19million

a WHO fact sheet of July 2026 gives 1.16 million.

Reported2021WHO1112

DAT · Connectivity

People using the Internet

6.3billion

and 2 billion remain offline.

Reported2026ITU10

SYS · Cross-system

Trade at risk each year from climate-related port downtime

81USD billion

modelled across 1,320 ports.

Reported2023Verschuur et al.16

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through infrastructure and logistics, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries infrastructure and logistics risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATCanals, rivers and ports depend on water levels and flows; flooding is the largest source of road and rail damage; volumes of water used by transport are not consolidated here.INF ↔ WATReported EQL 4
ENETransport runs on fuel and increasingly on power: electric cars 21 million in 2025, aviation oil use up 3.6%.ENE → INFReported EQL 4
FOOAbout one third of seaborne fertiliser trade passed through Hormuz; ports and cold chains carry food; no consolidated cold-chain series here.INF → FOOReported EQL 3
HLTRoad crashes killed 1.19 million people in 2021; access to clinics and supplies rides on roads and networks.INF → HLTReported EQL 4
BIODredging, corridors and shipping press on habitats; the evidence is not consolidated here.INF → BIOExpert input EQL 2
CLIHeat, floods and storms disrupt networks; 2025 was about 1.43 °C above the pre-industrial average.CLI → INFReported EQL 4
INFThe core system: ports, shipping lanes, roads, bridges, rail and aviation, with exposure to hazards, ageing and sudden structural failure.the core systemReported EQL 5
FINA 2017 outlook put the need to 2040 at USD 94 trillion; official flows to developing countries reached USD 78.7 billion in 2024.FIN → INFReported EQL 3
DAT6.3 billion people online in 2026; 96% covered by 3G or better; operational data on transport are uneven.DAT ↔ INFReported EQL 4
AICCompute and automation are entering ports and logistics; no consolidated figure is used in this edition.AIC → INFExpert input EQL 1
MINTransport equipment, batteries and vehicles depend on mineral supply; the evidence is bound with SR-04.MIN → INFExpert input EQL 2
TRDSeaborne trade 12,720 million tons; Hormuz transits fell 97%; Suez tonnage 70% below the 2023 average.INF ↔ TRDReported EQL 5

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on infrastructure and logistics, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systeminfrastructure carries every other system’s flows1419chokepoint, port and cyber compoundPARTIAL
GS-01Waterfloods and canal levels limit routes1532flood and low-flow disruptionTHIN
GS-02Energyelectric cars 21 million in 202513fuel and power for transportPARTIAL
GS-03Foodone third of seaborne fertiliser trade via Hormuz2fuel and fertiliser freightPARTIAL
GS-04Health1.19 million road deaths in 202111access to care and suppliesGOOD
GS-05FinanceUSD 94 trillion need to 2040 in 201721investment and insurancePARTIAL
GS-06DevelopmentUSD 78.7 billion of official flows in 20245access to roads and networksPARTIAL
GS-07Climate2025 about 1.43 °C above pre-industrial31heat and storm disruptionPARTIAL
GS-08Disasterdisasters damage and disrupt networks14cascading transport failuresPARTIAL
GS-09Infrastructureseaborne trade 12,720 million tons1chokepoints and exposureGOOD
GS-10Cities57.8% of people live in cities in 20259urban access and congestionTHIN
GS-11Biodiversityport and corridor pressures on habitatsdredging and land useTHIN
GS-12Earth observationship tracking and hazard data support operations2continuity of data feedsTHIN
GS-13Cyber and digital98 reported incidents in transport, 2021 to 202223attacks on transport operationsPARTIAL
GS-14PolicyEU network and resilience rules2425implementation and diversion rulesPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencestrong port and network risk modelling1617asset condition dataPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025: Staying the course in turbulent waters (full report and overview). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2UNCTAD (ed.), Strait of Hormuz Disruptions: Implications for Global Trade and Development, rapid analysis dated 10 March 2026, from Clarksons Research, EIA, LSEG, Kpler and other data. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 14Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. World Bank, Washington, 2019 (full report PDF). Observation year 2019 (analysis of earlier data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 11WHO (ed.), Global status report on road safety 2023, Geneva, 13 December 2023 (publication page). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 12WHO (ed.), Road traffic injuries, fact sheet updated 20 July 2026 (about 1.16 million deaths a year; 92% in low- and middle-income countries; reference year not stated). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year not stated on the page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 10ITU (ed.), Measuring digital development: Facts and Figures 2026 (publication page with key findings). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 16Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E. and Hall, J.W., Systemic risks from climate-related disruptions at ports, Nature Climate Change 13, 804 to 806, 2023 (abstract and introduction opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 19Thacker, S. et al., Infrastructure for sustainable development, Nature Sustainability 2, 324 to 331, 2019 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 15Koks, E.E. et al., A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets, Nature Communications 10, 2677, 2019 (abstract via Crossref). Springer Nature. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 32Autoridad del Canal de Panama (ed.), Panama Canal Authority, home page statistics (13,404 transits in 2025). Panama Canal Authority, Balboa. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 13IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (PDF, opened from a copy of the published report hosted by a third party). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 21Global Infrastructure Hub (ed.), Global Infrastructure Outlook, press release of 25 July 2017 (USD 94 trillion need to 2040, USD 97 trillion with SDG access targets, USD 18 trillion unfunded). Global Infrastructure Hub, Sydney. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 5UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 9 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 (indicators 9.1.2 and 9.a.1) and 2025 (indicator 9.c.1). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 31WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, press release of 23 March 2026 (2025 about 1.43 °C above the 1850 to 1900 average). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 9DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, urban population as a share of total population (series SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS, UN source), API read, database last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 23ENISA (ed.), ENISA Transport Threat Landscape, March 2023 (publication page and report PDF; incidents January 2021 to October 2022). European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, Athens. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 24European Commission (ed.), Trans-European transport network (TEN-T), policy page on Regulation (EU) 2024/1679 (core network by 2030, extended core by 2040, comprehensive by 2050). Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 25European Commission (ed.), NIS2 Directive: securing network and information systems, policy page on Directive (EU) 2022/2555 (earlier directive repealed from 18 October 2024). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 17Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E., Hall, J.W. et al., Multi-hazard risk to global port infrastructure and resulting trade and logistics losses, Communications Earth and Environment 4, 2023 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Global Infrastructure and Logistics Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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