Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Risks and capability

Four infrastructure and logistics risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

5 min read0 figures1 table19 notesNR-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Infrastructure is what the other systems travel on
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Chokepoint closure with port downtime and a cyber incident
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS09-TRD-001

    Maritime chokepoint closure

    Driver
    military escalation or blockage at a strait or canal21
    Exposure
    importing economies, tanker and container trades, fertiliser users
    Vulnerability
    few bypass routes; long rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope1
    Capacity
    rerouting, stock holding and insurance markets
    Cascade
    TRD → ENE, FOO, FIN
    Horizon
    1 to 3 years

  2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS09-INF-002

    Port and coastal hazard downtime

    Driver
    tropical cyclones, extreme wind, flooding and sea level rise161731
    Exposure
    86% of ports face more than three hazards17; island economies most reliant18
    Vulnerability
    engineering standards and recovery times vary widely17
    Capacity
    protection works, operating thresholds and backup ports
    Cascade
    INF → TRD, FIN, FOO
    Horizon
    1 to 10 years

  3. InferredEQL 3RSK-GS09-INF-003

    Ageing and unassessed structures

    Driver
    deferred maintenance and impact risk from vessels2220
    Exposure
    bridges and approaches near ports and shipping lanes
    Vulnerability
    missing vulnerability assessments22; investment gaps20
    Capacity
    inspection, retrofit and emergency detour plans
    Cascade
    INF → HLT, TRD
    Horizon
    1 to 10 years

  4. InferredEQL 3RSK-GS09-DAT-004

    Cyber disruption of transport operations

    Driver
    ransomware and data-related threats against transport operators23
    Exposure
    airlines, port authorities, rail operators and vehicle makers
    Vulnerability
    shared suppliers and operational technology; limited incident reporting23
    Capacity
    incident reporting duties and operator preparedness25
    Cascade
    DAT → INF → TRD, HLT
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for infrastructure and logistics at the global level.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSdesign standards and hazard protection widespread; implementation uneven1417
Monitoring and observationADEQUATEvessel and port data strong where reported; asset condition data thin220
Early warningEXISTSweather warnings and shipping advisories; chokepoint early warning is partial4
Preparedness and planningEXISTSnetwork planning and resilience rules in the EU2439
Redundancy and reservesDEMONSTRATEDrerouting around the Cape of Good Hope sustained trade1
ResponseDEMONSTRATEDrerouting, advisories and emergency measures used in 2024 and 2026132
Continuity of critical servicesEXISTSpriority freight and passenger rules exist; testing uneven
RecoveryLISTEDrecovery times by port and asset are not consolidated17
AdaptationEXISTSprotection and fleet changes under way; fleet greening incremental130
Social protectionLISTEDsupport for transport-poor households documented but not consolidated
Finance and insuranceEXISTSUSD 78.7 billion of official flows in 2024; war-risk premiums repriced in 202652
Institutional coordinationEXISTSIMO conventions and EU network rules2624
Technical infrastructureEXISTSports and networks extensive; maintenance gaps reported2014
WorkforceLISTEDseafarer and driver supply not reviewed in this edition
Research capacityADEQUATEstrong port and network risk science; asset data access uneven1619
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 2UNCTAD (ed.), Strait of Hormuz Disruptions: Implications for Global Trade and Development, rapid analysis dated 10 March 2026, from Clarksons Research, EIA, LSEG, Kpler and other data. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 1UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025: Staying the course in turbulent waters (full report and overview). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 16Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E. and Hall, J.W., Systemic risks from climate-related disruptions at ports, Nature Climate Change 13, 804 to 806, 2023 (abstract and introduction opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 17Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E., Hall, J.W. et al., Multi-hazard risk to global port infrastructure and resulting trade and logistics losses, Communications Earth and Environment 4, 2023 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 31WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, press release of 23 March 2026 (2025 about 1.43 °C above the 1850 to 1900 average). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 18Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E. and Hall, J.W., Ports’ criticality in international trade and global supply-chains, Nature Communications 13, 2022 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 22NTSB (ed.), Contact of Containership Dali with Francis Scott Key Bridge and Subsequent Bridge Collapse, investigation page with probable cause and recommendations. National Transportation Safety Board, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 20ASCE (ed.), 2025 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure (summary page: overall grade C, grades from B in ports to D in stormwater and transit, USD 3.6 trillion investment gap over ten years). American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 23ENISA (ed.), ENISA Transport Threat Landscape, March 2023 (publication page and report PDF; incidents January 2021 to October 2022). European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, Athens. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 25European Commission (ed.), NIS2 Directive: securing network and information systems, policy page on Directive (EU) 2022/2555 (earlier directive repealed from 18 October 2024). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 14Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. World Bank, Washington, 2019 (full report PDF). Observation year 2019 (analysis of earlier data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 4UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz disruption shows why early-warning data matters, news item (about 95% fall in ship transits; tracking tool described). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 24European Commission (ed.), Trans-European transport network (TEN-T), policy page on Regulation (EU) 2024/1679 (core network by 2030, extended core by 2040, comprehensive by 2050). Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Directive (EU) 2022/2557 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the resilience of critical entities, Official Journal of the European Union, 2022; the legal text returned a challenge page and the transport scope is cited from a search summary. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 32Autoridad del Canal de Panama (ed.), Panama Canal Authority, home page statistics (13,404 transits in 2025). Panama Canal Authority, Balboa. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 30IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II, Chapter 6: Cities, Settlements and Key Infrastructure (chapter PDF opened). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 5UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 9 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 (indicators 9.1.2 and 9.a.1) and 2025 (indicator 9.c.1). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 26IMO (ed.), Initial IMO GHG Strategy, hot topic page (notes that the 2023 strategy has been adopted). International Maritime Organization, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 19Thacker, S. et al., Infrastructure for sustainable development, Nature Sustainability 2, 324 to 331, 2019 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Global Infrastructure and Logistics Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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