Readings from the other desks
The infrastructure and logistics baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Infrastructure is what the other systems travel on
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Chokepoint closure with port downtime and a cyber incident
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 6.1 The other desks’ editions of this subject
- 6.2 Three lenses
- 6.3 Standards, Academy and steward contributions
- 6.4 GCRI reading: the model card
- 6.5 Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
- 6.6 Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 infrastructure and logistics readiness pack
- 6.7 Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
- 6.8 Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject
Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Standards Progress | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit |
6.2Three lenses
One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports reading infrastructure as the carrier layer of the WEFH+B system. Trade volumes are high, routes are longer and chokepoints can fail within days. Evidence is strongest for trade, ports and road deaths, and weakest for asset condition and recovery times.
TRD-001 · TRD-002 · INF-004 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people infrastructure risk arrives as a delayed delivery, a closed road or a dropped connection. The baseline asks that public debate treat transport and logistics as shared infrastructure for health and food, and keep the 1.19 million road deaths and the 2 billion people offline in view.
HLT-008 · DAT-009 · TRD-002
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. The need estimate is dated, port and network risks are modelled in the hundreds of billions, and freight and insurance costs repriced in 202621162. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.
FIN-007 · TRD-006
NEXUS
Synthesis
Infrastructure is well measured at the level of trade volumes and port traffic and thinly measured at the level of asset condition, maintenance and recovery. The 2027 programme should test the compound chokepoint case, bind regional corridor evidence and build the condition register.
SYS-012 · L-01 · L-02
6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions
How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for infrastructure and logistics. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.
| Quarter | Edition | Question | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | State and Agenda | What matters this year, and what is the starting position? | observed baseline stays distinct from planned work |
| Q2 | Evidence and Build | What new evidence and capability exist? | a configured capability is not a validated result |
| Q3 | Stress Test and Readiness | What do scenarios and tests show? | simulated loss or performance is not observed impact |
| Q4 | Annual Synthesis and Renewal | What changed in the year, and what renews? | release follows review, not event publicity deadlines |
| Steward or body | Role | Contribution route |
|---|---|---|
| The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada) | Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T) | science and practice communities · GCRI gateway |
| The Global Risks Forum (GRF) | leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M) | policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway |
| The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) | finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F) | finance and insurance · GRA gateway |
| Nexus Standards | preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods | Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI |
| Risk Academy | learning pathways tied to the agenda questions | Academy gateway · learning by review |
| Reports sector desks | infrastructure chapter inputs: GCRI evidence, GRA readiness, NXS standards, RA capability | sector editorial board |
Standards drafts used in this edition
- Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
- Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
- Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech
Standards calendar to watch
- Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
- Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
- Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition
6.4GCRI reading: the model card
GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology
6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.
Every recent shock has travelled on a network: fuel on tankers, fertiliser on bulk ships, data on cables and medicines on roads. Treating infrastructure as a list of assets understates how it moves risk between systems. This edition asks where a failed link sends the shock next.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01
Infrastructure is a carrier, not a sector
The average voyage grew from 4,831 to 5,245 miles between 2018 and 2024 and ton-miles grew almost three times faster than volumes in 2024. Longer routes mean more fuel, more days and more exposure. Measuring distance as well as tonnage is the first adaptation.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02
Distance is a hidden cost
Global expected damage to road and rail is small against output, but reaches 0.5 to 1% of GDP in some countries, and island economies depend most on their ports. The risk is a matter of where an economy has no second route.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03
Hazards fall unevenly
Missing vulnerability assessments, dated investment estimates and thin condition data are quieter than a closed strait. They decide how large the next failure will be. Closing them is part of resilience.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04
The slow gaps matter
6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 infrastructure and logistics readiness pack
The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.
| Item | Register | State at baseline | First 2027 entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | Infrastructure and Logistics risk state delta | baseline set by this edition | changes against the baseline |
| E2 | WEFH+B state delta | five global system readings set | indicator updates and freshness |
| E3 | Agenda and Portfolio movement | eight agenda items · 6 proposed objects | admission decisions |
| E4 | Federation delivery register | national chapters in preparation | national chapters |
| E5 | Consortium capability register | national consortia forming | first contributions |
| E6 | Leadership questions and challenges | none yet | first challenge log |
| E7 | Foundry technical state | national environments prepared | first federation cut |
| E8 | Publication candidates | twelve findings carried forward | PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions |
| E9 | Universe readiness | one candidate mission | admission and role spine |
| E10 | Correction register | none | first federation-wide cycle |
Publication dispositions
- Publish
- Hold
- Needs evidence
- Restricted
- Superseded
6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. Nexus Standards texts that relate to this edition are cited as preparatory working draft (2026). The edition assesses no one’s compliance.
- IN FORCE
- ADOPTED
- DEFERRED
- PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
| Instrument | Body | Scope | Status | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulation (EU) 2024/1679 on the trans-European transport network24 | European Union | EU | IN FORCE | network completion |
| Directive (EU) 2022/2555, NIS225 | European Union | EU | IN FORCE | cybersecurity |
| Directive (EU) 2022/2557 on the resilience of critical entities39 | European Union | EU | IN FORCE | resilience |
| IMO strategy on greenhouse gas emissions from ships26 | IMO | global | ADOPTED 2023 | shipping emissions |
| IMO Net-Zero Framework2740 | IMO | global | ADOPTION DEFERRED 2025 | fuel intensity and pricing |
| ISO 55000 asset management41 | ISO | global | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | assets |
| ISO 28000 supply chain security management42 | ISO | global | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | supply chains |
| ISO 22301 business continuity43 | ISO | global | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | continuity |
| International Ship and Port Facility Security Code48 | IMO | global | IN FORCE | security |
Changed since 2024
6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
The review behind this edition covers infrastructure and logistics assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.
Review protocol
- Question
- What does the published evidence establish about the world’s infrastructure, transport and logistics systems and its couplings?
- Sources searched
- agency flagships; regulator and investigation reports; peer-reviewed port and network risk literature; statistics
- Window
- releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
- Selection
- sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
- Next step
- systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027
| Reference | Type | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koks et al.15 | journal article | 2019 | supports | road and rail exposure |
| Verschuur et al.18 | journal article | 2022 | supports | port criticality |
| Verschuur et al.17 | journal article | 2023 | supports | multi-hazard port risk |
| Verschuur et al.16 | journal article | 2023 | supports | climate-related downtime |
| Thacker et al.19 | journal article | 2019 | framework | infrastructure and the SDGs |
| IPCC AR6 Working Group II, Chapter 630 | assessment | 2022 | context | key infrastructure and cities |
| Colon et al.46 | journal article | 2020 | context | transport network criticality |
| Verschuur et al.47 | journal article | 2020 | context | port disruption by natural disasters |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Review of Maritime Transport 20251 | UNCTAD | 2025 | supports | trade, fleet, chokepoints |
| Strait of Hormuz Disruptions2 | UNCTAD | 2026 | supports | chokepoint shock |
| Lifelines14 | World Bank | 2019 | supports | disruption cost |
| Global status report on road safety 202311 | WHO | 2023 | supports | road deaths |
| Facts and Figures 202610 | ITU | 2026 | supports | connectivity |
| Global Energy Review 202613 | IEA | 2026 | supports | transport fuels |
| Review of Maritime Transport 202449 | UNCTAD | 2024 | context | maritime chokepoints |
| Transport Outlook 202334 | ITF at the OECD | 2023 | context | demand and emissions |
| Resilience Pays36 | UNDRR | 2025 | context | disaster finance |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDG Extended Report, Goal 95 | UN DESA | 2026 | supports | freight, finance, coverage |
| World Development Indicators6789 | World Bank | 2026 | supports | ports, air, Internet, urbanisation |
| Global Infrastructure Outlook21 | Global Infrastructure Hub | 2017 | supports | investment need |
| Infrastructure Report Card20 | ASCE | 2025 | context | United States condition |
| Air travel demand update28 | ACI World | 2025 | supports | airport passengers |
| Industry outlook29 | IATA | 2025 | supports | airline passengers |
| Air transport statistics35 | ICAO | 2025 | context | airline passengers |
| Logistics Performance Index37 | World Bank | 2023 | context | logistics performance |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key Bridge investigation22 | NTSB | 2024 | supports | structure failure |
| Transport Threat Landscape23 | ENISA | 2023 | supports | cyber incidents |
| Trans-European Transport Network24 | European Commission | 2026 | context | network rules |
| NIS2 Directive25 | European Commission | 2026 | context | cybersecurity duties |
| Resilience of critical entities directive39 | European Union | 2022 | context | critical entities |
| GHG strategy26 | IMO | 2023 | context | shipping emissions |
| Net-Zero Framework decision2740 | IMO and DNV | 2025 | context | deferral |
| ISO 55000, 28000 and 22301414243 | ISO | 2019 to 2024 | context | asset, supply chain and continuity management |
| ISPS Code48 | IMO | 2004 | context | port and ship security |
| Rural Access Index50 | World Bank | 2023 | context | rural road access |
Where the evidence agrees
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 21Global Infrastructure Hub (ed.), Global Infrastructure Outlook, press release of 25 July 2017 (USD 94 trillion need to 2040, USD 97 trillion with SDG access targets, USD 18 trillion unfunded). Global Infrastructure Hub, Sydney. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E. and Hall, J.W., Systemic risks from climate-related disruptions at ports, Nature Climate Change 13, 804 to 806, 2023 (abstract and introduction opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2UNCTAD (ed.), Strait of Hormuz Disruptions: Implications for Global Trade and Development, rapid analysis dated 10 March 2026, from Clarksons Research, EIA, LSEG, Kpler and other data. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24European Commission (ed.), Trans-European transport network (TEN-T), policy page on Regulation (EU) 2024/1679 (core network by 2030, extended core by 2040, comprehensive by 2050). Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25European Commission (ed.), NIS2 Directive: securing network and information systems, policy page on Directive (EU) 2022/2555 (earlier directive repealed from 18 October 2024). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Directive (EU) 2022/2557 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the resilience of critical entities, Official Journal of the European Union, 2022; the legal text returned a challenge page and the transport scope is cited from a search summary. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26IMO (ed.), Initial IMO GHG Strategy, hot topic page (notes that the 2023 strategy has been adopted). International Maritime Organization, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 27DNV (ed.), Decision on the IMO Net-Zero Framework delayed for one year, news item of 2025 on the second extraordinary session of the Marine Environment Protection Committee. DNV, Oslo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: IMO (ed.), Marine Environment Protection Committee, extraordinary session of October 2025 and the session of October 2026 on the Net-Zero Framework; only the DNV summary [27] was opened. International Maritime Organization, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 55000:2024, Asset management: vocabulary, overview and principles. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva; the page was blocked. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 28000:2022, Security and resilience: security management systems for the supply chain. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva; the page was blocked. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 22301:2019, Security and resilience: business continuity management systems. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva; the page was blocked. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMO (ed.), International Ship and Port Facility Security Code, 2004 (SOLAS chapter XI-2), cited from memory. International Maritime Organization, London. Observation year 2004. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15Koks, E.E. et al., A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets, Nature Communications 10, 2677, 2019 (abstract via Crossref). Springer Nature. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E. and Hall, J.W., Ports’ criticality in international trade and global supply-chains, Nature Communications 13, 2022 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E., Hall, J.W. et al., Multi-hazard risk to global port infrastructure and resulting trade and logistics losses, Communications Earth and Environment 4, 2023 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19Thacker, S. et al., Infrastructure for sustainable development, Nature Sustainability 2, 324 to 331, 2019 (abstract opened). Springer Nature. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II, Chapter 6: Cities, Settlements and Key Infrastructure (chapter PDF opened). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Colon, C., Hallegatte, S. and Rozenberg, J., Criticality analysis of a country’s transport network via an agent-based supply chain model, Nature Sustainability 4, 209 to 215, 2021; bibliographic record read via Crossref, abstract not read. Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E. and Hall, J.W., Port disruptions due to natural disasters: Insights into port and logistics resilience, Transportation Research Part D 85, 102393, 2020; bibliographic record read via Crossref, abstract not read. Elsevier. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025: Staying the course in turbulent waters (full report and overview). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. World Bank, Washington, 2019 (full report PDF). Observation year 2019 (analysis of earlier data). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11WHO (ed.), Global status report on road safety 2023, Geneva, 13 December 2023 (publication page). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10ITU (ed.), Measuring digital development: Facts and Figures 2026 (publication page with key findings). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (PDF, opened from a copy of the published report hosted by a third party). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2024: Navigating maritime chokepoints; named in the SDG 9 storyline [5], not opened. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITF (ed.), ITF Transport Outlook 2023. International Transport Forum at the OECD, Paris; the page returned an access error and no figure is used. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025, Resilience Pays: Financing and Investing for our Future; the page was not accessible and no figure from search summaries is used. UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 9 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 (indicators 9.1.2 and 9.a.1) and 2025 (indicator 9.c.1). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, container port traffic (TEU), series IS.SHP.GOOD.TU, API read, database last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, air transport passengers carried and freight (series IS.AIR.PSGR and IS.AIR.GOOD.MT.K1, ICAO source) and rail series (no values returned), API read, database last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, individuals using the Internet (series IT.NET.USER.ZS, ITU source), API read, database last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, urban population as a share of total population (series SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS, UN source), API read, database last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20ASCE (ed.), 2025 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure (summary page: overall grade C, grades from B in ports to D in stormwater and transit, USD 3.6 trillion investment gap over ten years). American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 28ACI World (ed.), Biannual global air travel demand update, 30 September 2025 (9.4 billion passengers in 2024; 9.8 billion projected for 2025). Airports Council International, Montreal. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 29IATA (ed.), Industry outlook press release, December 2025 (5.2 billion passengers expected in 2026, up 4.4% on 2025; cargo 71.6 million tonnes). International Air Transport Association, Montreal. Observation year 2026 (expectation). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: ICAO (ed.), Air transport statistics and The World of Air Transport; the site returned an access error and no figure from it is used. International Civil Aviation Organization, Montreal. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), Connecting to Compete 2023: Trade Logistics in the Global Economy, the Logistics Performance Index; the site was not accessible and no value is used. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22NTSB (ed.), Contact of Containership Dali with Francis Scott Key Bridge and Subsequent Bridge Collapse, investigation page with probable cause and recommendations. National Transportation Safety Board, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23ENISA (ed.), ENISA Transport Threat Landscape, March 2023 (publication page and report PDF; incidents January 2021 to October 2022). European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, Athens. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), Rural Access Index, SDG indicator 9.1.1; the custodian storyline in the SDG Extended Report is empty and the index was not retrieved. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz shipping disruptions raise risks for energy, fertilisers and vulnerable economies, media alert UNCTAD/PRESS/MA/2026/003, Geneva, 10 March 2026. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNCTAD (ed.), Strait of Hormuz tracking dashboard, launched April 2026; known only from search summaries. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
