Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

14 min read0 figures13 tables19 notesNR-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.	Derivation	Calculation	Result
(1)	Growth of the average voyage haul, 2018 to 2024	5,245 ÷ 4,831	about 1.09 times
(2)	Daily Hormuz transits after a 97% fall	129 × (1 − 0.97)	about 4 a day
(3)	Unfunded share of the 2040 need, 2017 outlook	18 ÷ 97	about 18.6%
(4)	Transport share of official infrastructure flows, 2024	26.7 ÷ 78.7	about 33.9%

Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
Strength	Definition
STRONG	a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region
MODERATE	an effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAK	an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale

Table A.3Status grammar
Label	Rule
Reported	value as issued by its source, with year
Inferred	reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
Estimated	Nexus analytical value with stated method
Scenario	conditional on stated assumptions
Expert input	structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card, Infrastructure and Logistics Sector Model v0

Model ID: MDL-GS09-INFRASTRUCTURE · v0.1
Purpose: represent the global infrastructure, transport and logistics system and its couplings to water, energy, food, health and biodiversity
Family: graph-based system of systems
Inputs: the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method: expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
Validation: none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
Uncertainty: qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity: global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
Reproducibility: strength table and sources published in this edition

20couplings

typed in v0

3strong

documented within one season

6moderate

documented, buffered

11weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID: DC-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-B0
Type: baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy: pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned: 50 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
Model runs: none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest: computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes: nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by: the 2027 infrastructure and logistics annual cut

Lineage

01
source edition
02
pinned citation
03
finding
04
page
05
publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the federation cut
Element	Baseline 2026	2027 global annual
Sources	cited global publications, pinned by edition	national, regional and sector cuts through one graph
Analysis	stated methods and editorial estimates	typed analysis specifications
Models	Infrastructure and Logistics Sector Model v0 specification	model runs with receipts
Findings	twelve baseline findings	findings re-bound to federation evidence
Review	five passes scheduled	five passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
Indicator	Observed	Released	Cadence	Next release
Seaborne trade volume and ton-miles	2024	Review of 2025	annual	Review of Maritime Transport 2026
Hormuz transits	2026	March 2026	ad hoc	UNCTAD tracking
Container port traffic	2024	WDI update of 8 October 2026	annual	next WDI update
Air passengers on the World Bank series	2023	WDI update of 8 October 2026	annual	next WDI update
Road traffic deaths	2021	Dec 2023; fact sheet Jul 2026	periodic	next WHO report
Internet use	2026	Facts and Figures 2026	annual	Facts and Figures 2027
Official flows for infrastructure	2024	Apr 2026 inputs	annual	next SDG report
Disruption cost to households and firms	2019	2019	one-off	no update found
Global investment need	2017	2017	one-off	no update found
Transport cyber incidents	2021 to 2022	Mar 2023	periodic	ENISA Threat Landscape 2026

Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
System	Coverage	Thinnest dimension
Trade and ports	GOOD	port waiting times and recovery
Chokepoints	PARTIAL	position after March 2026
Hazard exposure	GOOD	asset condition and maintenance
Road safety	GOOD	reference year of the latest estimate
Connectivity	GOOD	service quality and affordability
Investment	PARTIAL	a current global need estimate
Rail and rural access	THIN	global volume and access series
Resilience	PARTIAL	tested capabilities beyond rerouting

Table A.7Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why
Field	Source that would fill it	Blocker
Chokepoint transits at Hormuz, Suez, Bab el-Mandeb and Panama after March 2026, on a daily series	IMF PortWatch daily series³³; UNCTAD tracking⁴⁴	the PortWatch daily service returned an access error and the UNCTAD tracking was not opened
Position of the Strait of Hormuz and shipping at the evidence close	UNCTAD tracking⁴⁴; monthly shipping reports	releases after March 2026 were not retrieved; only search summaries were read
Review of Maritime Transport 2026	UNCTAD	the publication page returned not found on 2026-11-03; not yet issued or moved
Share of the rural population within 2 km of an all-season road (SDG 9.1.1)	World Bank Rural Access Index⁵⁰	the custodian storyline in the SDG Extended Report is empty; not retrieved
Global rail passenger and freight volumes	World Bank WDI rail series⁷; ITF³⁴	the World Bank rail series returned no values for 2018 to 2023 and the ITF page was not accessible
Air passengers for 2024 and 2025 on the airline basis	ICAO air transport statistics³⁵	the ICAO site was not accessible and the World Bank series ends in 2023
Reference year of the WHO estimate of 1.16 million road deaths	WHO fact sheet¹²; next WHO status report	the fact sheet states no reference year; the 1.19 million figure for 2021 is used
Condition and maintenance backlog of roads, bridges and ports outside the United States	national transport ministries; OECD and ITF³⁴	no consolidated global series found; the ASCE grade covers the United States only²⁰
Current global infrastructure investment need and gap	Global Infrastructure Hub; World Bank	the 2017 outlook is the latest estimate found²¹; later updates were not retrieved
Logistics performance values by economy	World Bank Logistics Performance Index³⁷	the site was not accessible; no value is used and no economy is placed in an order
Cyber incidents on transport operations since 2022	ENISA Threat Landscape 2026⁴⁵	only the publication listing was read; the 2021 to 2022 report is used
Heat, flood and storm disruption of transport networks in 2026	operator reports; weather services³¹	not retrieved
Disaster losses to infrastructure on one basis	UNDRR Global Assessment Report 2025³⁶	the report page was not accessible; figures in search summaries are not used
Net-Zero Framework outcome after the October 2026 IMO session	IMO press releases⁴⁰	the session took place after the retrieved material; not retrieved
Transport entities designated as critical in the EU	national authorities; Directive (EU) 2022/2557³⁹	the legal text was not accessible and no designation list was found
Transport greenhouse gas emissions on one basis	ITF³⁴; IEA³⁸	not retrieved; no figure is used
Seafarer, driver and port workforce supply	ILO; IMO; national statistics	not reviewed
Capability rungs beyond rerouting and advisories	operators, regulators, ministries	not reviewed

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Issued by UN Trade and Development from shipping market data and port reports. Annual. Role: binds TRD-001 and TRD-003. UNCTAD also issued a separate rapid analysis for 2026 [2].

EVD-GS09-001

UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2025¹

Issued by UN Trade and Development on 10 March 2026 from commercial shipping, energy and fertiliser data. One-off. Role: binds TRD-002. A later UNCTAD note gives about 95% for the fall in transits [4].

EVD-GS09-002

UNCTAD Strait of Hormuz Disruptions²

Table A.8Quality dimensions at baseline
Dimension	EVD-GS09-001	EVD-GS09-002
Completeness	global fleet, trade and ports; modelled where data are missing	a single strait for a few weeks
Timeliness	about 5 months after the year	issued within weeks of the event
Revision	annual edition	later notes give about 95%
Method transparency	data sources named	data sources named on each chart
External validation	compared with commercial series	based on a commercial intelligence provider

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

UNCTAD¹: port waiting times and call data
UNCTAD⁴⁴: tracking series for 2026
World Bank⁷: air and rail series after 2023
ENISA⁴⁵: transport incidents since 2022

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.9Publication acceptance record
Group	Area	Items	Pass	N/A	Pending
D1	Identity and scope	8	8	0	0
D2	Source and data	12	9	1	2
D3	Analysis and models	12	3	8	1
D4	Findings and claims	9	8	0	1
D5	Figures, tables, maps	10	6	2	2
D6	Editorial and citations	10	8	0	2
D7	Review and approval	13	0	0	13
D8	Artefact and design	12	7	0	5
D9	Registry and release	9	0	0	9

Publication gate

Conditions met: 14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems: none recorded
Open conditions: reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs: first runs in Q1 2027
Maps: plates in Q2 2027
Waivers: none

A.7Status words

Table A.10The status every value carries
Status	What it means
Observed	Measured directly and published by the source.
Reported	Published statistics of an official or institutional source.
Declared	Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
Estimated	A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
Modelled	Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.
Inferred	Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
Forecast	A projection by the cited source.
Simulated	A simulation result under stated assumptions.
Scenario	A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert input	Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.
Candidate	Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Evidence arrives from the pillars	Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealed	On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembled	The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turn	At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opens	A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and deposited	The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on its desk’s site	Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.
08 Corrections go to Standards	Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.11Series terms
Term	Meaning
Baseline Edition	the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+B	infrastructure and logistics, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Coupling	a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gap	the share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladder	LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQL	evidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cut	a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWG	National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups

Table A.12Abbreviations used in this edition
Abbreviation	Expansion
ACI	Airports Council International
ASCE	American Society of Civil Engineers
ENISA	European Union Agency for Cybersecurity
IATA	International Air Transport Association
ICAO	International Civil Aviation Organization
IMO	International Maritime Organization
ITF	International Transport Forum
ITU	International Telecommunication Union
NTSB	National Transportation Safety Board
SCFI	Shanghai Containerized Freight Index
TEN-T	trans-European transport network
TEU	twenty-foot equivalent unit

A.10Technical annex

Table A.13Technical annex
Item	Annex	Contents	Status
A.1	Indicator definitions	the global indicator set, with units and sources	IN THIS EDITION
A.2	Coupling strengths	the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale	IN THIS EDITION
A.3	Scenario specification	SCN-GS09-HRM-01 assumptions and signposts	IN THIS EDITION
A.4	Capability placements	rung evidence for fifteen functions	IN THIS EDITION
A.5	Model diagnostics	first runs and validation	2027
A.6	Sensitivity analyses	influence of coupling strengths	2027
A.7	Corridor and port notes	cards for the major shared chokepoints and corridors	WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS
A.8	Review statements	pass-by-pass review record	AT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition: daily ship transits through a chokepoint

Construct: number of ship transits counted in a day through a strait or canal
Unit: ships a day
Method: vessel position data from a commercial shipping intelligence provider, compiled by UNCTAD
Source: UNCTAD, Strait of Hormuz Disruptions, March 2026²
Uncertainty: vessel classes and thresholds as defined by the provider; a later UNCTAD note gives a fall of about 95%⁴
Known limits: counts ships, not tonnage or cargo value; the 2026 series after March is not bound here

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

33UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF (ed.), PortWatch daily chokepoint transit series; the daily service returned an access error and only a static chokepoint list was read, from which no figure is used. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
44UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNCTAD (ed.), Strait of Hormuz tracking dashboard, launched April 2026; known only from search summaries. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
50UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), Rural Access Index, SDG indicator 9.1.1; the custodian storyline in the SDG Extended Report is empty and the index was not retrieved. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, air transport passengers carried and freight (series IS.AIR.PSGR and IS.AIR.GOOD.MT.K1, ICAO source) and rail series (no values returned), API read, database last updated 2026-10-08. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34UNVERIFIED, not opened: ITF (ed.), ITF Transport Outlook 2023. International Transport Forum at the OECD, Paris; the page returned an access error and no figure is used. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35UNVERIFIED, not opened: ICAO (ed.), Air transport statistics and The World of Air Transport; the site returned an access error and no figure from it is used. International Civil Aviation Organization, Montreal. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12WHO (ed.), Road traffic injuries, fact sheet updated 20 July 2026 (about 1.16 million deaths a year; 92% in low- and middle-income countries; reference year not stated). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year not stated on the page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20ASCE (ed.), 2025 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure (summary page: overall grade C, grades from B in ports to D in stormwater and transit, USD 3.6 trillion investment gap over ten years). American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21Global Infrastructure Hub (ed.), Global Infrastructure Outlook, press release of 25 July 2017 (USD 94 trillion need to 2040, USD 97 trillion with SDG access targets, USD 18 trillion unfunded). Global Infrastructure Hub, Sydney. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), Connecting to Compete 2023: Trade Logistics in the Global Economy, the Logistics Performance Index; the site was not accessible and no value is used. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
45UNVERIFIED, not opened: ENISA (ed.), ENISA Threat Landscape 2026, published 22 September 2026; only the listing entry was read. European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, Athens. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, press release of 23 March 2026 (2025 about 1.43 °C above the 1850 to 1900 average). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025, Resilience Pays: Financing and Investing for our Future; the page was not accessible and no figure from search summaries is used. UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
40UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: IMO (ed.), Marine Environment Protection Committee, extraordinary session of October 2025 and the session of October 2026 on the Net-Zero Framework; only the DNV summary [27] was opened. International Maritime Organization, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Directive (EU) 2022/2557 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the resilience of critical entities, Official Journal of the European Union, 2022; the legal text returned a challenge page and the transport scope is cited from a search summary. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global EV Outlook 2026; the page was not accessible and figures from news summaries are not used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025: Staying the course in turbulent waters (full report and overview). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2UNCTAD (ed.), Strait of Hormuz Disruptions: Implications for Global Trade and Development, rapid analysis dated 10 March 2026, from Clarksons Research, EIA, LSEG, Kpler and other data. UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz disruption shows why early-warning data matters, news item (about 95% fall in ship transits; tracking tool described). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex A: Methodology. In Global Infrastructure and Logistics Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-INFRASTRUCTURE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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