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India’s risk is monsoon-dependent, heat-loaded and changing fast in power

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It assesses no authority and ranks no state.

9 min read2 figures2 tables24 notesNR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1India’s risk is monsoon-dependent, heat-loaded and changing fast in power
    1. 1.1 The questions this part answers
    2. 1.2 The argument
    3. 1.3 Twenty couplings between five systems
    4. 1.4 Reinforcing loops
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5A second deficient monsoon across groundwater, kharif output, power demand and food budgets
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

  • Where is India’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
  • Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
  • Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
  • What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

  • Narrative
  • Headline finding
  • Lead figure
  • Five system chapters
  • Twelve-domain reading
  • Sector screens
  • Dependency matrix
  • Risk objects
  • Capability ladder
  • Scenario
  • Three lenses
  • Portfolio

1.2The argument

India is a very large economy in which most people still live outside cities, and its water, food and power systems answer to one seasonal rainfall regime. This baseline reads its exposure as three forces acting together: a variable monsoon, a warming climate with frequent weather extremes, and a power system that is adding clean capacity quickly while still generating most electricity from fossil fuels.

The monsoon layer sets the year. The 2025 season delivered 108% of the long period average and the 2026 season 87%, the fourth lowest total since 20011416. The 2026 total hides a split: Northwest and Central India received normal rainfall, while East and Northeast India recorded its lowest season since 1901 and the South Peninsula the second lowest since 200116. The weather service had forecast 92% of the average in April and 90% in May17.

The water layer is where the rainfall deficit becomes a stock problem. Groundwater extraction was 60.63% of the extractable resource in 2025, below the 63.33% of 2017 but above 100% in Punjab, Rajasthan and Haryana18. Peer-reviewed work finds falling groundwater storage in northern India2425. Renewable internal freshwater was about 1,014 m³ per person in 20223.

The extremes layer is physical and lethal. 2025 was the eighth warmest year in the record, with the highest winter anomaly since 190114. The weather service counted about 2,760 deaths from extreme weather, more than half of them from rain, floods, cloudbursts, landslides and lightning, and Punjab had its worst floods since 19881415. Peer-reviewed studies report a threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India and project deadly heat waves in South Asia2627.

The energy layer is changing quickly. Non-fossil sources were 54% of installed capacity on 31 July 2026, above the 50% set for 2030 in the 2022 contribution, and 55.29 GW was added in 2025–268910. Fossil generation still fell 3.3% in 2025, yet fossil fuels supplied about 73% of electricity, and net energy imports were 36.0% of energy use in 202431112.

The people layer is large and urbanising. The population was 1,463.9 million in 2025, 35.7% of it urban, with life expectancy of 72.2 years and 7.4% of people aged 65 or over12. Foodgrain production is estimated at a record 376.563 Mt for 2025–26, so the food system entered the deficient 2026 monsoon with high output19.

This edition therefore reads India’s risk as a property of the couplings between these forces. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask the same two questions: where does a shock travel next, and who holds the capability to stop it?

Figure 1.1How is India’s 2020 emissions total built up? Greenhouse-gas emissions by sector (Mt CO₂e)

Energy supplies about 76% of the 2020 total of 2,959 Mt CO₂e excluding land use. Land use and forestry removed a further 522 Mt, which gives a net total of 2,437 Mt5. This is the latest official inventory year at evidence close. CO₂ alone was 3,154 Mt in 2024 on a different series4.

ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Energy2238
Agriculture406
Industrial processes and product use239
Waste76

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2020.

Figure ID FIG-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE-01-003

2,959Mt CO₂e

total excluding land use, 20205

522Mt

removed by land use and forestry, 20205

36%

fall in GDP emission intensity, 2005 to 20205

2070net zero

national goal740

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The India matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, toWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT Water·STRONG
nuclear cooling · hydro		STRONG
irrigation · rain-fed yield		MODERATE
drinking water		STRONG
flows · wetlands
ENE EnergyMODERATE
pumping · treatment		·STRONG
fuel · fertiliser · cold chain		STRONG
facility power · cooling		MODERATE
reservoirs · land use
FOO FoodMODERATE
withdrawals · nutrients		WEAK
biofuel feedstock		·STRONG
nutrition · food safety		STRONG
land conversion
HLT HealthWEAK
workforce		WEAK
workforce		MODERATE
labour · disease		·WEAK
residues
BIO BiodiversitySTRONG
regulation · filtration		MODERATE
fire on lines · biomass		STRONG
pollination · soils		MODERATE
zoonoses · smoke		·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

  1. 01

    CLI → WAT → FOO

    A deficient monsoon lowers recharge and raises pumping, and tests irrigated and rain-fed crops.

    Reported 202616 · 202518

  2. 02

    CLI → INF → HLT

    Cloudbursts, floods and landslides cut roads and lifelines in the mountains.

    Reported 202514

  3. 03

    ENE → WAT

    Pumping and cooling demand couple groundwater to the power system.

    Expert input physical coupling

  4. 04

    TRD → ENE → FIN

    Net energy imports pass fuel prices into the economy.

    Reported 20243

  5. 05

    CLI → HLT

    Extreme heat loads health and care; deaths are counted inconsistently.

    Reported 20252122

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Table 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
LoopFirst directionSecond direction
WAT and BIOWater to biodiversity: flows · wetlandsBiodiversity to water: regulation · filtration
FOO and BIOFood to biodiversity: land conversionBiodiversity to food: pollination · soils
A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 14India Meteorological Department (ed.), Statement on the Climate of India during 2025. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, press release of 1 January 2026, published by the World Meteorological Organization 12 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  2. 16India Meteorological Department (ed.), Salient Features of the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, 30 September 2026. Observation year 2026.back
  3. 17India Meteorological Department (ed.), Updated Long Range Forecast for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season Rainfall (June–September) and Monthly outlook for June month. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, May 2026. Observation year 2026.back
  4. 18Central Ground Water Board and Ministry of Jal Shakti (eds.), Dynamic Ground Water Resources Assessment of India 2025, as summarised by Vision IAS. New Delhi, 30 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  5. 24M. Rodell, I. Velicogna and J. S. Famiglietti, “Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India,” Nature, vol. 460, pp. 999–1002, 2009. doi:10.1038/nature08238. Observation year 2009. doi:10.1038/nature08238back
  6. 25A. Asoka, T. Gleeson, Y. Wada and V. Mishra, “Relative contribution of monsoon precipitation and pumping to changes in groundwater storage in India,” Nature Geoscience, vol. 10, pp. 109–117, 2017. doi:10.1038/ngeo2869. Observation year 2017. doi:10.1038/ngeo2869back
  7. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, net energy imports (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), renewable internal freshwater per person (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial protected area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS) and irrigated agricultural land (AG.LND.IRIG.AG.ZS). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2022–2024.back
  8. 15Down To Earth (ed.), “2025 marked by rising night-time temperatures and extreme rainfall across seasons in India.” Centre for Science and Environment, New Delhi, January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  9. 26M. K. Roxy, S. Ghosh, A. Pathak et al., “A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India,” Nature Communications, vol. 8, article 708, 2017. doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9. Observation year 2017. doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9back
  10. 27E.-S. Im, J. S. Pal and E. A. B. Eltahir, “Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia,” Science Advances, vol. 3, no. 8, e1603322, 2017. doi:10.1126/sciadv.1603322. Observation year 2017. doi:10.1126/sciadv.1603322back
  11. 8Government of India (ed.), India’s Updated First Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement. UNFCCC, Bonn, August 2022. Observation year 2030 target.back
  12. 9Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (ed.), installed non-fossil power capacity at 31 July 2026, as reported by Renewable Watch. New Delhi, 11 August 2026. Observation date 31 July 2026.back
  13. 10Government of India (ed.), power-capacity factsheet of 13 August 2026, as reported by the Indo-Asian News Service. New Delhi, 13 August 2026. Observation date July 2026.back
  14. 11Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026. Ember, London, 22 April 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  15. 12Ember (ed.), India: electricity data and analysis (country page). Ember, London, accessed 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  16. 1World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, population, total (SP.POP.TOTL) and urban population share (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  17. 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, GDP in current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN) and population aged 65 and above (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2024–2025.back
  18. 19Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (ed.), Third Advance Estimates of Production of Major Crops for 2025–26, released 27 May 2026. Directorate of Economics and Statistics, New Delhi. Observation year 2025–26.back
  19. 5Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India’s Fourth Biennial Update Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, including the 2020 national greenhouse-gas inventory. MoEFCC, New Delhi, submitted 30 December 2024. Observation year 2020.back
  20. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, CO2 emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5) and mortality attributed to household and ambient air pollution (SH.STA.AIRP.P5). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2019 and 2024.back
  21. 7Climate Action Tracker (ed.), India: 2035 NDC assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, Berlin, September 2026. Observation year 2035 target.back
  22. 40Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India’s Long-Term Low-Carbon Development Strategy. MoEFCC, New Delhi, submitted to the UNFCCC 14 November 2022. Observation year 2022.back
  23. 21HeatWatch (ed.), Struck by Heat: A News Analysis of Heatstroke Deaths in India in 2025, as reported by The Print. New Delhi, 22 August 2025. Observation period February to July 2025.back
  24. 22Press Trust of India (ed.), “India recorded over 7,000 suspected heatstroke cases, 14 deaths in March–June period: RTI,” reporting National Centre for Disease Control data. The Print, New Delhi, July 2025. Observation period 1 March to 24 June 2025.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 1: India’s risk is monsoon-dependent, heat-loaded and changing fast in power. In India Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of India’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind India.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines6 / 15 relations

Context

Heatwave

Cooling demand peaks the grid while rivers warm; heat stress fills hospitals and wilts crops.

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
4 of 6
Relations
6 of 15
Coupling
0.43 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Food → Health · nutrition0.7
  • Water → Health · drinking water and sanitation0.7
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
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