- India 2026
- Chapter 4
Risks and capability
Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1India’s risk is monsoon-dependent, heat-loaded and changing fast in power
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5A second deficient monsoon across groundwater, kharif output, power demand and food budgets
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
4.1Risk objects
Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.
ReportedEQL 4RSK-IND-CLI-001
Multi-year monsoon deficit with groundwater stress
- Driver
- deficient monsoon seasons and rising temperature
- Exposure
- irrigated and rain-fed farmland, cities, hydropower
- Vulnerability
- groundwater extraction above 100% in three states
- Capacity
- storage and demand management not bound
- Cascade
- CLI → WAT → FOO, ENE
- Horizon
- annual to 5 years
ReportedEQL 4RSK-IND-CLI-002
Cloudburst, flood and landslide sequence in the mountains and plains
- Driver
- extreme rain on steep or flood-prone terrain
- Exposure
- mountain valleys, river plains and coasts
- Vulnerability
- roads, power lines and settlements in hazard zones; not bound
- Capacity
- warnings and response agencies; effectiveness not bound
- Cascade
- CLI → INF → HLT, ENE
- Horizon
- annual
ReportedEQL 3RSK-IND-ENE-003
Power-system balancing as solar share grows
- Driver
- evening demand after solar output falls
- Exposure
- households, industry and agriculture
- Vulnerability
- fossil generation still about 73% of supply
- Capacity
- storage and flexible capacity not bound
- Cascade
- ENE → WAT, FOO, FIN
- Horizon
- 1–5 years
Expert inputEQL 2RSK-IND-HLT-004
Extreme heat and humidity
- Driver
- heat waves and warm nights
- Exposure
- outdoor workers, older people, dense housing
- Vulnerability
- cooling access and housing; not bound
- Capacity
- heat action plans exist as guidance43; use not bound
- Cascade
- CLI → HLT → ENE
- Horizon
- seasonal
4.2Capability ladder
Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.
| Function | Rung | Level | Strongest public evidence at baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prevention and mitigation | NOT BOUND | source: building, land-use and watershed registers · blocker: not retrieved by evidence close | |
| Monitoring and observation | EXISTS | the national weather service issues annual and seasonal statements and tracks cyclones1416 | |
| Early warning | LISTED | cyclone systems were tracked and named in 2025; Montha claimed 9 lives14; warning effectiveness not bound | |
| Preparedness and planning | LISTED | national disaster management plan of 201942 and heat-wave action guidance43; implementation not bound | |
| Redundancy and reserves | NOT BOUND | source: grain, fuel and reservoir stock data · blocker: not retrieved in bound form | |
| Response | NOT BOUND | source: national and state response-force records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close | |
| Continuity of critical services | NOT BOUND | source: utility restoration records · blocker: not retrieved | |
| Recovery | NOT BOUND | source: state relief and reconstruction accounts · blocker: not retrieved | |
| Adaptation | LISTED | long-term low-carbon strategy of 2022 and the 2035 contribution640 | |
| Social protection | NOT BOUND | source: food-distribution and labour ministry records · blocker: not reviewed | |
| Finance and insurance | NOT BOUND | source: insurance regulator and general insurers · blocker: not retrieved | |
| Institutional coordination | LISTED | a national disaster management authority exists42; coordination evidence not bound | |
| Technical infrastructure | LISTED | about 552 GW installed power capacity10; network condition not bound | |
| Workforce | NOT BOUND | source: sector registers · blocker: not retrieved | |
| Research capacity | LISTED | peer-reviewed groundwater, monsoon and heat literature exists24252627 | |
| A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline. | |||
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 43National Disaster Management Authority (ed.), Guidelines for Preparation of Action Plan: Prevention and Management of Heat Wave. NDMA, New Delhi, 2019. Observation year 2019.back
- 14India Meteorological Department (ed.), Statement on the Climate of India during 2025. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, press release of 1 January 2026, published by the World Meteorological Organization 12 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
- 16India Meteorological Department (ed.), Salient Features of the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, 30 September 2026. Observation year 2026.back
- 42National Disaster Management Authority (ed.), National Disaster Management Plan 2019. NDMA, New Delhi, 2019. Observation year 2019.back
- 6Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India’s Nationally Determined Contribution for 2031–2035. MoEFCC, New Delhi, submitted to the UNFCCC 24 April 2026. Observation year 2035 target.back
- 40Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India’s Long-Term Low-Carbon Development Strategy. MoEFCC, New Delhi, submitted to the UNFCCC 14 November 2022. Observation year 2022.back
- 10Government of India (ed.), power-capacity factsheet of 13 August 2026, as reported by the Indo-Asian News Service. New Delhi, 13 August 2026. Observation date July 2026.back
- 24M. Rodell, I. Velicogna and J. S. Famiglietti, “Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India,” Nature, vol. 460, pp. 999–1002, 2009. doi:10.1038/nature08238. Observation year 2009. doi:10.1038/nature08238back
- 25A. Asoka, T. Gleeson, Y. Wada and V. Mishra, “Relative contribution of monsoon precipitation and pumping to changes in groundwater storage in India,” Nature Geoscience, vol. 10, pp. 109–117, 2017. doi:10.1038/ngeo2869. Observation year 2017. doi:10.1038/ngeo2869back
- 26M. K. Roxy, S. Ghosh, A. Pathak et al., “A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India,” Nature Communications, vol. 8, article 708, 2017. doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9. Observation year 2017. doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9back
- 27E.-S. Im, J. S. Pal and E. A. B. Eltahir, “Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia,” Science Advances, vol. 3, no. 8, e1603322, 2017. doi:10.1126/sciadv.1603322. Observation year 2017. doi:10.1126/sciadv.1603322back