- India 2026
- Chapter 3
Systems and sectors at baseline
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1India’s risk is monsoon-dependent, heat-loaded and changing fast in power
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5A second deficient monsoon across groundwater, kharif output, power demand and food budgets
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
3.1Where each system stood at evidence close
WAT · Water
Groundwater extraction as a share of the extractable resource
60.6%730 of 6,762 assessment units are over-exploited; Punjab stands at 156%.
Reported2025CGWB and states18
ENE · Energy
Non-fossil sources in installed power capacity
54%Fossil fuels still supplied about 73% of generation in 2025.
FOO · Food
Foodgrain production, third advance estimate
376.6MtUp 5.3% on 2024–25; an estimate that can be revised.
Reported2025–26Ministry of Agriculture19
HLT · Health
Life expectancy at birth
72.2yearsNo consistent national heat-death series exists; official and media counts differ.
BIO · Biodiversity
Terrestrial area under protection
7.7% of landForest area was 24.4% of land in 2024 on the same World Bank series.
Reported2024World Bank3
SYS · Cross-system
Deaths from extreme weather events
≈2,760deathsMore than 1,370 from rain, floods, cloudbursts and landslides.
Reported2025IMD14
3.2Domain posture
Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.
| Domain | Posture at baseline | Coupling | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | Extraction at 60.63% of the extractable groundwater; over-exploited units concentrated in the north-west, west and south. | WAT → FOO · WAT ↔ ENE | Reported EQL 3 |
| ENE | Non-fossil sources are 54% of capacity; fossil fuels still supply about 73% of generation. | ENE ← TRD · ENE → all | Reported EQL 4 |
| FOO | Record foodgrain estimate of 376.563 Mt for 2025–26; wheat export ban continues. | FOO ← WAT, CLI, TRD | Reported EQL 4 |
| HLT | Life expectancy 72.2 years; heat-death counts are inconsistent; air-pollution mortality was 139.3 per 100,000 in 2019. | HLT ← CLI | Reported EQL 3 |
| BIO | Forest is 24.4% of land and 7.7% of land is protected; condition outside protection is not bound. | BIO ↔ WAT, FOO | Reported EQL 3 |
| CLI | 2025 was 0.28 °C above the 1991–2020 average; the 2026 monsoon was 87% of the average. | forcing on all systems | Reported EQL 5 |
| INF | Fast-growing urban and lifeline stock exposed to flood, heat and earthquake; condition not bound at public-safe resolution. | INF → all | Expert input EQL 2 |
| FIN | Insured and uninsured disaster losses are not bound in this edition. | FIN ← CLI | Not bound EQL 1 |
| DAT | Digital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution. | DAT → ENE, FIN | Expert input EQL 2 |
| AIC | Data-centre and compute demand for power and water not bound in this edition. | AIC → ENE, WAT | Expert input EQL 2 |
| MIN | Critical-mineral dependence for solar, wind and storage not bound. | MIN ← TRD | Expert input EQL 2 |
| TRD | Net energy imports were 36.0% of energy use in 2024. | TRD → all | Reported EQL 3 |
3.3Sector screens
All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.
| Code | Sector | Baseline evidence | Exposure to watch | Evidence coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS-00 | Cross-system | compound monsoon, heat and supply stress | deficient monsoon; flood year | PARTIAL |
| GS-01 | Water | groundwater extraction 60.63%18 | deficient monsoon; over-extraction | PARTIAL |
| GS-02 | Energy | non-fossil share of capacity 54%9 | evening peak; coal dependence | GOOD |
| GS-03 | Food | foodgrain 376.563 Mt estimate19 | short harvest; export policy | PARTIAL |
| GS-04 | Health | life expectancy 72.2 years2 | heat and air pollution; counts not bound | THIN |
| GS-05 | Finance | insured losses not bound | catastrophe fiscal cost | THIN |
| GS-06 | Development | urban share 35.7%1 | service demand in fast-growing cities | PARTIAL |
| GS-07 | Climate | 2025 at +0.28 °C14 | heat and rain extremes | GOOD |
| GS-08 | Disaster | about 2,760 deaths in 202514 | flood, cloudburst, lightning, cyclone | PARTIAL |
| GS-09 | Infrastructure | power fleet about 552 GW10; seismic design zones50 | flood and seismic exposure | PARTIAL |
| GS-10 | Cities | urban population 35.7%1; cooling plan52 | heat and flood stress | PARTIAL |
| GS-11 | Biodiversity | forest 24.4% of land3; forest survey44 | fire; land-use change | PARTIAL |
| GS-12 | Earth observation | national weather and climate statements1416 | continuity | GOOD |
| GS-13 | Cyber and digital | dependencies not yet mapped | systemic outages | THIN |
| GS-14 | Policy | 2035 contribution submitted6 | implementation rules | PARTIAL |
| GS-15 | Science | peer-reviewed groundwater and extremes work2426 | translation to states | PARTIAL |
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 18Central Ground Water Board and Ministry of Jal Shakti (eds.), Dynamic Ground Water Resources Assessment of India 2025, as summarised by Vision IAS. New Delhi, 30 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
- 9Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (ed.), installed non-fossil power capacity at 31 July 2026, as reported by Renewable Watch. New Delhi, 11 August 2026. Observation date 31 July 2026.back
- 10Government of India (ed.), power-capacity factsheet of 13 August 2026, as reported by the Indo-Asian News Service. New Delhi, 13 August 2026. Observation date July 2026.back
- 12Ember (ed.), India: electricity data and analysis (country page). Ember, London, accessed 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
- 19Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (ed.), Third Advance Estimates of Production of Major Crops for 2025–26, released 27 May 2026. Directorate of Economics and Statistics, New Delhi. Observation year 2025–26.back
- 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, GDP in current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN) and population aged 65 and above (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2024–2025.back
- 22Press Trust of India (ed.), “India recorded over 7,000 suspected heatstroke cases, 14 deaths in March–June period: RTI,” reporting National Centre for Disease Control data. The Print, New Delhi, July 2025. Observation period 1 March to 24 June 2025.back
- 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, net energy imports (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), renewable internal freshwater per person (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial protected area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS) and irrigated agricultural land (AG.LND.IRIG.AG.ZS). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2022–2024.back
- 14India Meteorological Department (ed.), Statement on the Climate of India during 2025. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, press release of 1 January 2026, published by the World Meteorological Organization 12 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
- 1World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, population, total (SP.POP.TOTL) and urban population share (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation year 2025.back
- 50Bureau of Indian Standards (ed.), IS 1893 (Part 1): 2016, Criteria for Earthquake Resistant Design of Structures. BIS, New Delhi, 2016. Observation year 2016.back
- 52Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India Cooling Action Plan. MoEFCC, New Delhi, 2019. Observation year 2019.back
- 44Forest Survey of India (ed.), India State of Forest Report 2023. FSI, Dehradun, December 2024. Observation year 2023.back
- 16India Meteorological Department (ed.), Salient Features of the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, 30 September 2026. Observation year 2026.back
- 6Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India’s Nationally Determined Contribution for 2031–2035. MoEFCC, New Delhi, submitted to the UNFCCC 24 April 2026. Observation year 2035 target.back
- 24M. Rodell, I. Velicogna and J. S. Famiglietti, “Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India,” Nature, vol. 460, pp. 999–1002, 2009. doi:10.1038/nature08238. Observation year 2009. doi:10.1038/nature08238back
- 26M. K. Roxy, S. Ghosh, A. Pathak et al., “A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India,” Nature Communications, vol. 8, article 708, 2017. doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9. Observation year 2017. doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9back