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Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

7 min read0 figures5 tables17 notesNR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1India’s risk is monsoon-dependent, heat-loaded and changing fast in power
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5A second deficient monsoon across groundwater, kharif output, power demand and food budgets
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Water, the baseline system chapter
    2. 8.2 Energy, the baseline system chapter
    3. 8.3 Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter
    4. 8.4 Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter
    5. 8.5 Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Groundwater extraction stands at 60.63% of the extractable resource, and the 2026 monsoon delivered 87% of its average, so the stock is asked to carry the shortfall.

60.63%

stage of extraction, 202518

730units

over-exploited of 6,762, 202518

≈1,014m³

renewable internal freshwater per person, 20223

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Extraction247.22 BCM against 407.75 BCM extractable; recharge 448.52 BCM18Reported
Hotspotsstage of extraction 156.36% in Punjab, 147.11% in Rajasthan, 136.75% in Haryana18Reported
Trendstage of extraction fell from 63.33% in 2017 to 60.63% in 202518Reported
Per-person supplyabout 1,014 m³ of renewable internal freshwater in 20223Reported
National storagenational reservoir series not retrievedCentral Water Commission45NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • CLI → WAT rainfall and recharge
  • WAT → FOO irrigation and crops
  • ENE → WAT pumping load
  • WAT → HLT drinking water

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • national reservoir storage
  • well-level abstraction data

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Non-fossil sources are 54% of installed capacity, yet fossil fuels still supplied about 73% of electricity in 2025, so capacity and generation tell different stories.

300.50GW

non-fossil capacity, 31 July 20269

−3.3%

change in fossil generation, 202511

36.0% of energy use

net energy imports, 20243

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Capacityabout 552 GW installed; solar 164.59 GW, wind 58.14 GW, hydro 57.24 GW, bio-power 11.75 GW, nuclear 8.78 GW910Reported
Additions55.29 GW of non-fossil capacity added in 2025–26, of which 44.6 GW solar and 6 GW wind9Reported
Generationrenewables up 98 TWh in 2025; solar 196 TWh, 9.4% of demand; fossil about 73%1112Reported
Coalcoal generation fell 2.9% in 2025; share of generation not bound to one source12NOT BOUND
Importsnet energy imports 36.0% of energy use in 20243Reported

Couplings into other systems

  • TRD → ENE fuel imports
  • ENE → WAT pumping and cooling
  • CLI → ENE heat demand and hydropower
  • ENE → FOO irrigation power

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • coal share of generation on one source
  • storage and flexible capacity

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

The 2025–26 foodgrain estimate is a record, so the food system met the deficient 2026 monsoon from a position of high output, and the effects of 2026 are not yet bound.

376.563Mt

foodgrain, third advance estimate 2025–2619

120.657Mt

wheat, 2025–2619

154.024Mt

rice, 2025–2619

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Total376.563 Mt against 357.732 Mt in 2024–25, up about 5.3%19Reported
Wheat120.657 Mt estimated; FAO reports a record 117.9 Mt in 20251920Reported
Trade policywheat export ban in place since May 2022; rice exports forecast at 23.6 Mt for 202620Reported
Kharif 2026production after the deficient monsoon not boundMinistry of AgricultureNOT BOUND
Stockspublic grain stock depth not retrievedFood Corporation of IndiaNOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • WAT → FOO irrigation
  • CLI → FOO monsoon and heat
  • ENE → FOO irrigation power
  • FOO → FIN household budgets

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • kharif 2026 production
  • public stock depth

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

India has a large population in which 7.4% are aged 65 or over, and no consistent national heat-death series was available at evidence close.

72.2years

life expectancy, 20242

7.4%

aged 65 or over, 20252

139.3per 100,000

air-pollution mortality, age-standardised, 20194

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Life expectancy72.2 years in 20242Reported
Ageing7.4% of the population aged 65 or over in 20252Reported
Air pollutionage-standardised mortality of 139.3 per 100,000 in 2019; state-level burden in the GBD 2019 study428Reported
Heat deaths14 confirmed by NCDC, 1 March to 24 June 2025; at least 84 in a media review, February to July 20252122Reported
Heat deaths, national totalone reproducible national series not boundNCDC · state health departmentsNOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • CLI → HLT heat
  • WAT → HLT drinking water
  • ENE → HLT cooling and power
  • CLI → HLT floods and injury

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • heat deaths
  • current air-pollution burden

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Forest covered 24.4% of land in 2024 and 7.7% of land was under terrestrial protection, but the condition of ecosystems outside protected areas is not bound here.

24.4% of land

forest area, 20243

7.7% of land

terrestrial protected area, 20243

46.2% of farmland

agricultural land irrigated, 20243

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Forest24.4% of land area in 2024 on the World Bank series3Reported
Protection7.7% of land area under terrestrial protection in 20243Reported
Irrigation46.2% of agricultural land irrigated in 20243Reported
Survey coverforest and tree cover on the national survey definition not readForest Survey of India44NOT BOUND
Conditionnot bound outside protected areasn/aExpert input

Couplings into other systems

  • BIO → WAT forest and watershed regulation
  • BIO → FOO pollination and soils
  • CLI → BIO drought and fire

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • forest and tree cover on the national definition
  • condition outside protected areas

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 18Central Ground Water Board and Ministry of Jal Shakti (eds.), Dynamic Ground Water Resources Assessment of India 2025, as summarised by Vision IAS. New Delhi, 30 December 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  2. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, net energy imports (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), renewable internal freshwater per person (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial protected area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS) and irrigated agricultural land (AG.LND.IRIG.AG.ZS). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2022–2024.back
  3. 45Central Water Commission (ed.), Reservoir Storage Bulletin (weekly). CWC, New Delhi, 2026. Observation year 2026.back
  4. 9Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (ed.), installed non-fossil power capacity at 31 July 2026, as reported by Renewable Watch. New Delhi, 11 August 2026. Observation date 31 July 2026.back
  5. 11Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026. Ember, London, 22 April 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  6. 10Government of India (ed.), power-capacity factsheet of 13 August 2026, as reported by the Indo-Asian News Service. New Delhi, 13 August 2026. Observation date July 2026.back
  7. 12Ember (ed.), India: electricity data and analysis (country page). Ember, London, accessed 3 November 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  8. 41Central Electricity Authority (ed.), National Electricity Plan, Volume I: Generation. CEA, New Delhi, 2023. Observation year 2022.back
  9. 19Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (ed.), Third Advance Estimates of Production of Major Crops for 2025–26, released 27 May 2026. Directorate of Economics and Statistics, New Delhi. Observation year 2025–26.back
  10. 20Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: India. FAO, Rome, reference date 13 February 2026. Observation years 2025–2026.back
  11. 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, GDP in current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN) and population aged 65 and above (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2024–2025.back
  12. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: India, CO2 emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5) and mortality attributed to household and ambient air pollution (SH.STA.AIRP.P5). World Bank, Washington DC, data updated 8 October 2026. Observation years 2019 and 2024.back
  13. 28A. Pandey, M. Brauer, M. L. Cropper et al., “Health and economic impact of air pollution in the states of India: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019,” The Lancet Planetary Health, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. e25–e38, 2021. doi:10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30298-9. Observation year 2019. doi:10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30298-9back
  14. 21HeatWatch (ed.), Struck by Heat: A News Analysis of Heatstroke Deaths in India in 2025, as reported by The Print. New Delhi, 22 August 2025. Observation period February to July 2025.back
  15. 22Press Trust of India (ed.), “India recorded over 7,000 suspected heatstroke cases, 14 deaths in March–June period: RTI,” reporting National Centre for Disease Control data. The Print, New Delhi, July 2025. Observation period 1 March to 24 June 2025.back
  16. 44Forest Survey of India (ed.), India State of Forest Report 2023. FSI, Dehradun, December 2024. Observation year 2023.back
  17. 31Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In India Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of India’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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