Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Risks and capability

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

4 min read0 figures1 table11 notesNR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1India’s risk is monsoon-dependent, heat-loaded and changing fast in power
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5A second deficient monsoon across groundwater, kharif output, power demand and food budgets
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-IND-CLI-001

    Multi-year monsoon deficit with groundwater stress

    Driver
    deficient monsoon seasons and rising temperature
    Exposure
    irrigated and rain-fed farmland, cities, hydropower
    Vulnerability
    groundwater extraction above 100% in three states
    Capacity
    storage and demand management not bound
    Cascade
    CLI → WAT → FOO, ENE
    Horizon
    annual to 5 years

  2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-IND-CLI-002

    Cloudburst, flood and landslide sequence in the mountains and plains

    Driver
    extreme rain on steep or flood-prone terrain
    Exposure
    mountain valleys, river plains and coasts
    Vulnerability
    roads, power lines and settlements in hazard zones; not bound
    Capacity
    warnings and response agencies; effectiveness not bound
    Cascade
    CLI → INF → HLT, ENE
    Horizon
    annual

  3. ReportedEQL 3RSK-IND-ENE-003

    Power-system balancing as solar share grows

    Driver
    evening demand after solar output falls
    Exposure
    households, industry and agriculture
    Vulnerability
    fossil generation still about 73% of supply
    Capacity
    storage and flexible capacity not bound
    Cascade
    ENE → WAT, FOO, FIN
    Horizon
    1–5 years

  4. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-IND-HLT-004

    Extreme heat and humidity

    Driver
    heat waves and warm nights
    Exposure
    outdoor workers, older people, dense housing
    Vulnerability
    cooling access and housing; not bound
    Capacity
    heat action plans exist as guidance43; use not bound
    Cascade
    CLI → HLT → ENE
    Horizon
    seasonal

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationNOT BOUNDsource: building, land-use and watershed registers · blocker: not retrieved by evidence close
Monitoring and observationEXISTSthe national weather service issues annual and seasonal statements and tracks cyclones1416
Early warningLISTEDcyclone systems were tracked and named in 2025; Montha claimed 9 lives14; warning effectiveness not bound
Preparedness and planningLISTEDnational disaster management plan of 201942 and heat-wave action guidance43; implementation not bound
Redundancy and reservesNOT BOUNDsource: grain, fuel and reservoir stock data · blocker: not retrieved in bound form
ResponseNOT BOUNDsource: national and state response-force records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Continuity of critical servicesNOT BOUNDsource: utility restoration records · blocker: not retrieved
RecoveryNOT BOUNDsource: state relief and reconstruction accounts · blocker: not retrieved
AdaptationLISTEDlong-term low-carbon strategy of 2022 and the 2035 contribution640
Social protectionNOT BOUNDsource: food-distribution and labour ministry records · blocker: not reviewed
Finance and insuranceNOT BOUNDsource: insurance regulator and general insurers · blocker: not retrieved
Institutional coordinationLISTEDa national disaster management authority exists42; coordination evidence not bound
Technical infrastructureLISTEDabout 552 GW installed power capacity10; network condition not bound
WorkforceNOT BOUNDsource: sector registers · blocker: not retrieved
Research capacityLISTEDpeer-reviewed groundwater, monsoon and heat literature exists24252627
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 43National Disaster Management Authority (ed.), Guidelines for Preparation of Action Plan: Prevention and Management of Heat Wave. NDMA, New Delhi, 2019. Observation year 2019.back
  2. 14India Meteorological Department (ed.), Statement on the Climate of India during 2025. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, press release of 1 January 2026, published by the World Meteorological Organization 12 January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  3. 16India Meteorological Department (ed.), Salient Features of the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season. Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, 30 September 2026. Observation year 2026.back
  4. 42National Disaster Management Authority (ed.), National Disaster Management Plan 2019. NDMA, New Delhi, 2019. Observation year 2019.back
  5. 6Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India’s Nationally Determined Contribution for 2031–2035. MoEFCC, New Delhi, submitted to the UNFCCC 24 April 2026. Observation year 2035 target.back
  6. 40Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (ed.), India’s Long-Term Low-Carbon Development Strategy. MoEFCC, New Delhi, submitted to the UNFCCC 14 November 2022. Observation year 2022.back
  7. 10Government of India (ed.), power-capacity factsheet of 13 August 2026, as reported by the Indo-Asian News Service. New Delhi, 13 August 2026. Observation date July 2026.back
  8. 24M. Rodell, I. Velicogna and J. S. Famiglietti, “Satellite-based estimates of groundwater depletion in India,” Nature, vol. 460, pp. 999–1002, 2009. doi:10.1038/nature08238. Observation year 2009. doi:10.1038/nature08238back
  9. 25A. Asoka, T. Gleeson, Y. Wada and V. Mishra, “Relative contribution of monsoon precipitation and pumping to changes in groundwater storage in India,” Nature Geoscience, vol. 10, pp. 109–117, 2017. doi:10.1038/ngeo2869. Observation year 2017. doi:10.1038/ngeo2869back
  10. 26M. K. Roxy, S. Ghosh, A. Pathak et al., “A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India,” Nature Communications, vol. 8, article 708, 2017. doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9. Observation year 2017. doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9back
  11. 27E.-S. Im, J. S. Pal and E. A. B. Eltahir, “Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia,” Science Advances, vol. 3, no. 8, e1603322, 2017. doi:10.1126/sciadv.1603322. Observation year 2017. doi:10.1126/sciadv.1603322back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In India Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of India’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-IND-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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