Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

6 min read1 figure0 tables15 notesNR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Kenya’s risk runs between its rains and its grid
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Failed rains, grid shortfall and outbreak in the arid counties
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

Kenya enters 2027 as a lower-middle-income economy of 57.5 million people whose electricity system runs mostly on geothermal and hydropower, whose arid counties face acute food insecurity, and whose 2024 floods killed 478 people1253235. The national inventory put total greenhouse-gas emissions at 113.36 Mt CO₂e in 2022, 16.7% above the 2030 target level of 97.24 Mt27. The second climate contribution, submitted on 30 April 2025, sets a 2035 target of 35% below a business-as-usual level of 215 Mt CO₂e, with 80% of the effort conditional on international support2729. In the year to June 2026 electricity generation rose 8.44% to 15,692.81 GWh, geothermal supplied 40.91% and imports 12.19%, while system losses were 21.38% against an allowable 16.5%25. Water services reach fewer people than power: 65.6% of people had at least basic drinking water and 40.9% basic sanitation in 2024, and renewable internal freshwater was 381.5 m³ per person in 202291011. About 3.7 million people in the arid and semi-arid counties faced acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or worse) in April to June 2026, 32% more than a year earlier3233. The 2024 long-rains floods affected 240,603 households and displaced 119,820 in 46 of 47 counties35. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for Kenya’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems, maps the couplings through which drought, flood and grid shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition answers with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It reads against peer distributions and thresholds, and it decides nothing.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the Kenya baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. 113.36 Mt CO₂e in 2022, 16.7% above the 2030 target level.27

    Where do emissions stand?Reported

  2. A 2035 target of 35% below a 215 Mt CO₂e business-as-usual level, submitted in April 2025.2729

    What has Kenya committed to?Reported

  3. Generation grew 8.44% and geothermal leads, but losses are 21.38% and imports are 12.19% of supply.25

    How secure is electricity?Reported

  4. 65.6% have at least basic drinking water and 40.9% basic sanitation.910

    How sound are water services?Reported

  5. Not in the arid counties: about 3.7 million people face IPC Phase 3 or worse.3233

    Is food supply secure?Reported

  6. 478 reported deaths in the 2024 long-rains floods.35

    What do floods cost in lives?Reported

  7. Threat status is not bound; 13.9% of land is protected.16

    What is the state of biodiversity?Not bound

  8. A failed rainy season, a grid and import shortfall and a disease outbreak in the arid counties. SCN-KEN-DRT-01

    What does Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

Electricity generation rose 8.44% to 15,692.81 GWh in the year to June 2026; geothermal supplied 40.91%, hydro 22.65%, wind 12.31% and imports 12.19%.

Figure S.1Electricity generation by source, FY2025/26 (% of total)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Geothermal40.91
Hydro22.65
Wind12.31
Imports12.19
Thermal8.34
Solar, utility scale3.00

Source: EPRA Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report for the year ended 30 June 202625. Off-grid generation (0.58%) is not shown.

A grid anchored on geothermal and hydropower has low fuel risk and varies with rain for its hydro share. Imports of 1,913.66 GWh, mostly from Ethiopia, add a cross-border dependency. Losses of 21.38% and average outages of 3.23 hours are where the system is thinnest, and curtailment of geothermal energy (392.36 GWh) shows that supply can exceed what the network can carry at some hours25.

S.4At a glance

57.5million

population, 20251

32.2%

urban share of population, 20256

113.4Mt CO₂e

total emissions, 202227

3.0%

adult HIV prevalence, 20244

63.8years

life expectancy at birth, 20242

47counties

45.8% of employment is in agriculture, 202519

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Kenya’s risk: the grid is growing and mostly renewable, but losses are high, water and sanitation reach fewer people, and food insecurity is concentrated in the arid counties.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people the risk arrives as a failed harvest, a power cut, a water interruption or a flood.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Public debt is 71.3% of GDP in 2025 and the World Bank assesses a high risk of debt distress.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Kenya publishes strong open energy statistics and a reviewed national inventory.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the state of Kenya’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies that connect them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets out the questions the operational series will answer.

What it is not

Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and national ownership of the series is unaffected.

What comes next

Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Population, total” (SP.POP.TOTL), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 25Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (ed.), Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report for the year ended 30th June 2026. EPRA, Nairobi, September 2026, observation year FY2025/26, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 32Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Kenya, reference date 4 May 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 35International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (ed.), Kenya: 2024 IFRC network annual report, January to December, in support of the Kenya Red Cross Society. IFRC, Geneva, 8 August 2025, observation year 2024, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 27UNFCCC (ed.), Report on the technical expert review of the first biennial transparency report of Kenya, FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/KEN. UNFCCC, Bonn, 13 February 2026, observation year 2022, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 29Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Kenya: targets, 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, update of 31 March 2026, observation year 2035, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “People using at least basic drinking water services (% of population)” (SH.H2O.BASW.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “People using at least basic sanitation services (% of population)” (SH.STA.BASS.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (cubic meters)” (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Kenya, observation year 2022. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 33World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa (ed.), Weekly Situation Report, Kenya, Week 22: 31 May to 7 June 2026. WHO AFRO, Brazzaville, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 16World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Terrestrial protected areas (% of total land area)” (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Urban population (% of total population)” (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Prevalence of HIV, total (% of population ages 15-49)” (SH.DYN.AIDS.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Life expectancy at birth, total (years)” (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 19World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) (modelled ILO estimate)” (SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Kenya Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Kenya’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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