Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

5 min read1 figure0 tables18 notesNR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Kenya’s risk runs between its rains and its grid
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Energy
    4. 2.4 Water
    5. 2.5 Food
    6. 2.6 Health
    7. 2.7 Biodiversity
    8. 2.8 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Failed rains, grid shortfall and outbreak in the arid counties
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

Electricity generation rose 8.44% to 15,692.81 GWh in the year to June 2026; geothermal supplied 40.91%, hydro 22.65%, wind 12.31% and imports 12.19%.

Figure 2.1Electricity generation by source, FY2025/26 (% of total)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Geothermal40.91
Hydro22.65
Wind12.31
Imports12.19
Thermal8.34
Solar, utility scale3.00

Source: EPRA Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report for the year ended 30 June 202625. Off-grid generation (0.58%) is not shown.

Implication

A grid anchored on geothermal and hydropower has low fuel risk and varies with rain for its hydro share. Imports of 1,913.66 GWh, mostly from Ethiopia, add a cross-border dependency. Losses of 21.38% and average outages of 3.23 hours are where the system is thinnest, and curtailment of geothermal energy (392.36 GWh) shows that supply can exceed what the network can carry at some hours25.

What would move it

The first operating year of the 2026 electricity market regulations, hydro output in the 2026 short rains, import contract volumes and the loss trend would each move this finding25.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    Total greenhouse-gas emissions were 113.36 Mt CO₂e in 2022, 16.7% above the 2030 target level of 97.24 Mt; agriculture, forestry and other land use made up 73% of emissions.2728

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

    The second climate contribution, submitted on 30 April 2025, sets a 2035 target of 35% below a business-as-usual level of 215 Mt CO₂e, with 20% of the cut from domestic resources and 80% conditional on support.2729

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-011

    The 2024 long-rains floods caused 478 reported deaths, affected 240,603 households and displaced 119,820 in 46 of 47 counties, many of them the same counties hit by the 2021–2023 drought.35

2.3Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

    Electricity generation rose 8.44% to 15,692.81 GWh in the year to June 2026; geothermal supplied 40.91%, hydro 22.65%, wind 12.31% and imports 12.19%, and peak demand reached 2,514.28 MW.25

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

    System losses were 21.38% in the year to June 2026 against an allowable 16.5%, average outage length rose to 3.23 hours, and 392.36 GWh of geothermal energy was curtailed.25

2.4Water

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

    In 2024, 65.6% of people had at least basic drinking water and 40.9% basic sanitation; renewable internal freshwater was 381.5 m³ per person in 2022.91011

2.5Food

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-FOO-006

    About 3.7 million people in the arid and semi-arid counties faced IPC Phase 3 or worse in April to June 2026, 32% more than a year earlier, and about 545,000 were in Phase 4.3233

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-FOO-007

    Agriculture growth slowed to 3.1% in 2025 from 4.4% in 2024, and maize output rose to 45.8 million bags from 44.8 million after above-average long rains and below-average short rains.34

2.6Health

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008

    Life expectancy at birth was 63.8 years in 2024, adult HIV prevalence 3.0%, under-five mortality 38.8 per 1,000 live births and malaria incidence 74.2 per 1,000 people at risk.2345

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-HLT-009

    By early June 2026 Kenya reported 1,141 cumulative mpox cases with 19 deaths, a measles outbreak of 445 cases and a dengue event of 1,269 cases in Garissa.33

2.7Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-BIO-010

    Forest area was 6.6% of land in 2024 on the World Bank series, and the national measure rose from 6.99% in 2010 to 8.83% in 2021; terrestrial protected areas covered 13.9% of land and marine areas 0.7% in 2025.15161727

2.8Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a failed rainy season in the arid counties with a grid and import shortfall and a disease outbreak on top. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 25Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (ed.), Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report for the year ended 30th June 2026. EPRA, Nairobi, September 2026, observation year FY2025/26, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 27UNFCCC (ed.), Report on the technical expert review of the first biennial transparency report of Kenya, FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/KEN. UNFCCC, Bonn, 13 February 2026, observation year 2022, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 28Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Kenya: country assessment.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, update of 31 March 2026, observation year 2022, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 29Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Kenya: targets, 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, update of 31 March 2026, observation year 2035, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 35International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (ed.), Kenya: 2024 IFRC network annual report, January to December, in support of the Kenya Red Cross Society. IFRC, Geneva, 8 August 2025, observation year 2024, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “People using at least basic drinking water services (% of population)” (SH.H2O.BASW.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “People using at least basic sanitation services (% of population)” (SH.STA.BASS.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (cubic meters)” (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Kenya, observation year 2022. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 32Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Kenya, reference date 4 May 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 33World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa (ed.), Weekly Situation Report, Kenya, Week 22: 31 May to 7 June 2026. WHO AFRO, Brazzaville, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 34Central Bank of Kenya (ed.), Agriculture Survey, May 2026, quoting the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Economic Survey 2026. CBK, Nairobi, May 2026, observation year 2025, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Life expectancy at birth, total (years)” (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births)” (SH.DYN.MORT), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Prevalence of HIV, total (% of population ages 15-49)” (SH.DYN.AIDS.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Incidence of malaria (per 1,000 population at risk)” (SH.MLR.INCD.P3), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Forest area (% of land area)” (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 16World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Terrestrial protected areas (% of total land area)” (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 17World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Marine protected areas (% of territorial waters)” (ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Kenya Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Kenya’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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