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Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

7 min read0 figures5 tables22 notesNR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Kenya’s risk runs between its rains and its grid
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Failed rains, grid shortfall and outbreak in the arid counties
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Water, the baseline system chapter
    2. 8.2 Energy, the baseline system chapter
    3. 8.3 Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter
    4. 8.4 Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter
    5. 8.5 Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Water and sanitation reach fewer people than electricity does, and renewable freshwater per person is low.

65.6%

basic drinking water, 20249

40.9%

basic sanitation, 202410

381.5m³

renewable freshwater per person, 202211

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Drinking water65.6% of people with at least basic service9Reported
Sanitation40.9% basic; 36% safely managed1037Reported
Freshwater381.5 m³ per person; withdrawals 19.5% of internal resources1112Reported
Water stress11% of renewable resources after environmental flows, 202337Reported
Reservoir and river storagestorage and flow not boundWater Resources AuthorityNOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • ENE → WAT pumping and treatment
  • WAT → HLT drinking water and cholera
  • CLI → WAT drought and flood
  • WAT → ENE hydropower

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • reservoir and river storage
  • utility performance and water loss

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Geothermal leads a grid that grew 8.44% in a year, but losses are high and imports supply 12.19%.

15,692.81GWh

generation, FY2025/2625

2,514.28MW

peak demand, 29 June 202625

21.38%

system losses25

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Generation mixgeothermal 40.91%, hydro 22.65%, wind 12.31%, imports 12.19%25Reported
Capacity3,263.02 MW installed and 3,082.00 MW effective, interconnected25Reported
Losses and outages21.38% losses; 3.23 hours average outage25Reported
Access77% of people with electricity; 32% with clean cooking, 20241314Reported
Reservoir storagehydro storage not boundKenGen and WRANOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • ENE → WAT pumping and treatment
  • ENE → HLT clinics and cold chains
  • WAT → ENE hydro output
  • ENE → BIO charcoal and fuelwood demand

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • hydro reservoir storage
  • import contract terms

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Maize output rose in 2025, yet acute food insecurity is concentrated in the arid counties.

3.7million

IPC Phase 3 or worse, Apr to Jun 202632

45.8million bags

maize output, 202534

34.9%

prevalence of undernourishment, 202421

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Acute food insecurityabout 3.7 million in IPC Phase 3 or worse; 545,000 in Phase 43233Reported
Maize45.8 million bags in 2025, up from 44.8 million34Reported
Pricesretail maize 15% higher year on year, February 202632Reported
Undernourishment34.9% of people, 2024 series value21Reported
Farm economyagriculture is 23.2% of GDP (2025); cereal yield 1,693 kg per hectare (2024)1820Reported
Household surveycounty-level food insecurity not boundKNBS household surveyNOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • CLI → FOO drought and flood
  • ENE → FOO fertiliser and cold chain
  • WAT → FOO rain-fed yield
  • FOO → HLT nutrition

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • maize output in tonnes
  • county household food insecurity
  • import dependence by commodity

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Life expectancy is 63.8 years, and 2026 brought concurrent outbreaks alongside the drought emergency.

63.8years

life expectancy, 20242

38.8per 1,000

under-five mortality, 20243

74.2per 1,000

malaria incidence at risk, 20245

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Life expectancy63.8 years at birth2Reported
Child mortality38.8 per 1,000 live births3Reported
HIVadult prevalence 3.0%4Reported
Outbreaksmpox 1,141 cases, 19 deaths; measles 445; dengue 1,269 cases33Reported
Water-related illnessnational series not boundMinistry of Health recordsNOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • WAT → HLT water and sanitation
  • ENE → HLT clinics and cold chains
  • CLI → HLT floods and heat
  • FOO → HLT nutrition

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • water-related illness series
  • clinic continuity in outages

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Forest and protected-area figures are bound; ecosystem threat status is not.

6.6%

forest area, World Bank series, 202415

13.9%

terrestrial protected areas, 202516

0.7%

marine protected areas, 202517

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Forest6.6% of land on the World Bank series; 8.83% in 2021 on the national measure1527Reported
Protection13.9% of land and 0.7% of marine area1617Reported
Threat statusshare of ecosystem types or species threatened not boundIUCN and national assessmentNOT BOUND
Wildlifenational wildlife counts not boundKenya Wildlife ServiceNOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • BIO → WAT catchments
  • BIO → ENE hydropower catchments
  • WAT → BIO lake and river flows
  • FOO → BIO land conversion

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • ecosystem threat status
  • wildlife counts
  • condition outside protected areas

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “People using at least basic drinking water services (% of population)” (SH.H2O.BASW.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “People using at least basic sanitation services (% of population)” (SH.STA.BASS.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (cubic meters)” (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Kenya, observation year 2022. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 37UN-Water (ed.), SDG 6 Data Portal, Kenya country snapshot (6.2.1a safely managed sanitation 2024; 6.4.2 water stress 2023; 6.5.1 IWRM implementation 2023). UN-Water, Geneva, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Annual freshwater withdrawals, total (% of internal resources)” (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2022. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 25Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (ed.), Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report for the year ended 30th June 2026. EPRA, Nairobi, September 2026, observation year FY2025/26, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Access to electricity (% of population)” (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (% of population)” (EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 32Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Kenya, reference date 4 May 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 34Central Bank of Kenya (ed.), Agriculture Survey, May 2026, quoting the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Economic Survey 2026. CBK, Nairobi, May 2026, observation year 2025, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 21World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population)” (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 33World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa (ed.), Weekly Situation Report, Kenya, Week 22: 31 May to 7 June 2026. WHO AFRO, Brazzaville, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 18World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (% of GDP)” (NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 20World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Cereal yield (kg per hectare)” (AG.YLD.CREL.KG), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Life expectancy at birth, total (years)” (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births)” (SH.DYN.MORT), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Incidence of malaria (per 1,000 population at risk)” (SH.MLR.INCD.P3), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Prevalence of HIV, total (% of population ages 15-49)” (SH.DYN.AIDS.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Forest area (% of land area)” (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 16World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Terrestrial protected areas (% of total land area)” (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 17World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Marine protected areas (% of territorial waters)” (ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 27UNFCCC (ed.), Report on the technical expert review of the first biennial transparency report of Kenya, FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/KEN. UNFCCC, Bonn, 13 February 2026, observation year 2022, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Kenya Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Kenya’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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