Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Risks and capability

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

3 min read0 figures1 table7 notesNR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Kenya’s risk runs between its rains and its grid
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Failed rains, grid shortfall and outbreak in the arid counties
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-KEN-CLI-001

    Heavy-rain flooding across many counties

    Driver
    enhanced long rains · cut-off events
    Exposure
    river corridors, informal settlements, roads, water sources
    Vulnerability
    46 of 47 counties affected in 202435
    Capacity
    flood warnings issued earlier; county plans in six counties27
    Cascade
    CLI → INF, WAT, HLT
    Horizon
    annual

  2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-KEN-FOO-002

    Failed rains and acute food insecurity in the arid counties

    Driver
    below-average short rains · high prices · reduced aid
    Exposure
    pastoral and agro-pastoral households in the arid counties
    Vulnerability
    3.7 million in IPC Phase 3 or worse32
    Capacity
    cash transfers for drought response reported27
    Cascade
    FOO → HLT, displacement, conflict over resources
    Horizon
    1–5 years

  3. ReportedEQL 4RSK-KEN-ENE-003

    Supply shortfall and loss-heavy distribution

    Driver
    hydro swings · import dependence · demand growth
    Exposure
    water works, clinics, industry, households
    Vulnerability
    losses 21.38% · outages 3.23 hours average25
    Capacity
    3,082 MW effective interconnected capacity against a 2,514.28 MW peak25
    Cascade
    ENE → WAT, HLT, FIN
    Horizon
    1–5 years

  4. ReportedEQL 3RSK-KEN-HLT-004

    Concurrent outbreaks in a stretched health system

    Driver
    mpox · measles · cholera · dengue · cross-border Ebola threat
    Exposure
    north-east counties, refugee camps, Nairobi and coastal counties
    Vulnerability
    basic sanitation reaches 40.9%10
    Capacity
    national public health institute leads preparedness33
    Cascade
    HLT → FOO, WAT workforce
    Horizon
    annual

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationNOT BOUNDsource: building, land-use and drainage records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Monitoring and observationEXISTSthe regulator publishes annual and biannual energy statistics; a weekly health emergency report is issued2533
Early warningLISTEDKenya reports earlier flood warnings and use of seasonal forecasts; performance is not bound27
Preparedness and planningLISTEDthe national climate action plan 2023–2027 sets priority actions; its use is not bound38
Redundancy and reservesNOT BOUNDsource: grain, fuel and water reserve data · blocker: not retrieved
ResponseNOT BOUNDsource: National Disaster Operations Centre after-action records · blocker: not retrieved
Continuity of critical servicesLISTEDeffective interconnected capacity is above peak demand, but outages averaged 3.23 hours25
RecoveryNOT BOUNDsource: reconstruction records after the 2024 floods · blocker: not retrieved
AdaptationLISTEDthe national climate action plan covers eight priority areas; delivery is not bound38
Social protectionLISTEDcash transfers for drought shock response are reported; coverage is not bound27
Finance and insuranceLISTEDa national agricultural insurance policy is reported; uptake is not bound27
Institutional coordinationLISTEDa climate directorate coordinates, with county governments planning and budgeting; function is not bound27
Technical infrastructureEXISTSinterconnected capacity of 3,263.02 MW installed and 3,082.00 MW effective25
WorkforceNOT BOUNDsource: health, water and power workforce registers · blocker: not retrieved
Research capacityADEQUATEa national inventory for 1990–2022 was submitted and reviewed under the UN process27
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 35International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (ed.), Kenya: 2024 IFRC network annual report, January to December, in support of the Kenya Red Cross Society. IFRC, Geneva, 8 August 2025, observation year 2024, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 27UNFCCC (ed.), Report on the technical expert review of the first biennial transparency report of Kenya, FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/KEN. UNFCCC, Bonn, 13 February 2026, observation year 2022, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 32Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Kenya, reference date 4 May 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 25Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (ed.), Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report for the year ended 30th June 2026. EPRA, Nairobi, September 2026, observation year FY2025/26, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “People using at least basic sanitation services (% of population)” (SH.STA.BASS.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 33World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa (ed.), Weekly Situation Report, Kenya, Week 22: 31 May to 7 June 2026. WHO AFRO, Brazzaville, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 38Government of Kenya (ed.), National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) III 2023–2027, read through the summary record of the Climate Change Laws of the World database (Grantham Research Institute); the plan itself was not opened. Nairobi, 2023, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Kenya Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Kenya’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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