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Systems and sectors at baseline

5 min read0 figures2 tables15 notesNR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Kenya’s risk runs between its rains and its grid
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Failed rains, grid shortfall and outbreak in the arid counties
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

People with at least basic drinking water

65.6%

Basic sanitation reaches 40.9%. Renewable internal freshwater was 381.5 m³ per person in 2022.

Reported2024World Bank9

ENE · Energy

Geothermal share of electricity generation

40.9%

Hydro supplied 22.65% and imports 12.19%. Peak demand reached 2,514.28 MW on 29 June 2026.

ReportedFY2025/26EPRA25

FOO · Food

People in IPC Phase 3 or worse, arid counties

3.7million

Up 32% on a year earlier. About 545,000 were in Phase 4, Emergency.

ReportedApr to Jun 2026FAO and WHO3233

HLT · Health

Life expectancy at birth

63.8years

Adult HIV prevalence was 3.0% and under-five mortality 38.8 per 1,000 live births.

Reported2024World Bank234

BIO · Biodiversity

Ecosystem threat status, national

Not bound

Source: national biodiversity assessment or IUCN country records. Blocker: not retrieved at evidence close. Terrestrial protected areas covered 13.9% of land in 202516.

Not boundn/anot bound

SYS · Cross-system

Deaths in the 2024 long-rains floods

478deaths

The rains affected 240,603 households in 46 of 47 counties. Counts differ by source and date.

Reported2024IFRC35

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATAbout two in three people have basic drinking water and two in five basic sanitation; renewable freshwater per person is low.WAT → HLT · WAT ↔ ENEReported EQL 4
ENEGeothermal and hydro lead generation; imports 12.19%; losses 21.38%.ENE → allReported EQL 5
FOOMaize output up in 2025; 3.7 million people in IPC Phase 3 or worse in the arid counties.FOO ← CLI, ENEReported EQL 4
HLTLife expectancy 63.8 years; mpox, measles, dengue and cholera events in 2026.HLT ← WAT, FOOReported EQL 4
BIOProtected areas cover 13.9% of land; threat status not bound.BIO ↔ WAT, FOOReported EQL 3
CLIDeadly floods in 2024 after a prolonged 2021–2023 drought.forcing on all systemsReported EQL 4
INFGrid losses and long outages; roads and water sources cut in floods.INF → allReported EQL 4
FINPublic debt 71.3% of GDP in 2025 and high risk of debt distress; flood loss and insured share not bound.FIN ← CLI, ENEReported EQL 3
DATDigital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution.DAT → ENE, FINExpert input EQL 2
AICData-centre and compute demand on power and water not bound in this edition.AIC → ENE, WATExpert input EQL 2
MINMining linkages to power and water not bound in this edition.MIN → ENE, WATExpert input EQL 2
TRDPetroleum products and electricity are imported; food and fertiliser trade not bound in this edition.TRD → ENE, FOOInferred EQL 3

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemcompound drought, grid and outbreak stressarid-county failed season with import shortfallPARTIAL
GS-01Water65.6% basic drinking water9service gaps; storagePARTIAL
GS-02Energygeothermal 40.91% of generation25hydro swings; losses; importsPARTIAL
GS-03Food3.7 million in IPC Phase 3 or worse32rainfall; input costs; pricesPARTIAL
GS-04Healthlife expectancy 63.8 years2outbreak load; service continuityPARTIAL
GS-05Financepublic debt 71.3% of GDP30flood loss; insured share not boundTHIN
GS-06Development43.3% poverty at $3.00 a day24service delivery gapsPARTIAL
GS-07Climate2035 target submitted29extreme rain and droughtPARTIAL
GS-08Disaster478 deaths in 2024 floods35warning to response chainTHIN
GS-09Infrastructuresystem losses 21.38%25distribution losses; outagesPARTIAL
GS-10Cities32.2% urban share6urban water and power demandTHIN
GS-11Biodiversity13.9% of land protected16threat status not boundTHIN
GS-12Earth observationnot reviewedcontinuityTHIN
GS-13Cyber and digitaldependencies not yet mappedsystemic outagesTHIN
GS-14Policynational climate action plan 2023–202738coordination between national and county levelsPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencefirst transparency report reviewed by the UN27translation to countiesPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “People using at least basic drinking water services (% of population)” (SH.H2O.BASW.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 25Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (ed.), Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report for the year ended 30th June 2026. EPRA, Nairobi, September 2026, observation year FY2025/26, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 32Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Kenya, reference date 4 May 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 33World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa (ed.), Weekly Situation Report, Kenya, Week 22: 31 May to 7 June 2026. WHO AFRO, Brazzaville, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Life expectancy at birth, total (years)” (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births)” (SH.DYN.MORT), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Prevalence of HIV, total (% of population ages 15-49)” (SH.DYN.AIDS.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2024. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 16World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Terrestrial protected areas (% of total land area)” (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 35International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (ed.), Kenya: 2024 IFRC network annual report, January to December, in support of the Kenya Red Cross Society. IFRC, Geneva, 8 August 2025, observation year 2024, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 30International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper series NGDP_RPCH, PCPIPCH and GGXWDG_NGDP, Kenya, observation years 2023–2027. IMF, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 24World Bank (ed.), Kenya: Overview, country page (poverty 43.3% at $3.00 a day in 2025, public debt 70.6% of GDP, high risk of debt distress). World Bank, Washington DC, observation year 2025, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 29Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Kenya: targets, 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, update of 31 March 2026, observation year 2035, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Urban population (% of total population)” (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 38Government of Kenya (ed.), National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) III 2023–2027, read through the summary record of the Climate Change Laws of the World database (Grantham Research Institute); the plan itself was not opened. Nairobi, 2023, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 27UNFCCC (ed.), Report on the technical expert review of the first biennial transparency report of Kenya, FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/KEN. UNFCCC, Bonn, 13 February 2026, observation year 2022, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Kenya Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Kenya’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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