Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Readings from the other desks

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.

13 min read0 figures8 tables32 notesNR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Kenya’s risk runs between its rains and its grid
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Failed rains, grid shortfall and outbreak in the arid counties
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
    1. 6.1 The other desks’ editions of this subject
    2. 6.2 Three lenses
    3. 6.3 Standards, Academy and steward contributions
    4. 6.4 GCRI reading: the model card
    5. 6.5 Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
    6. 6.6 Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack
    7. 6.7 Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
    8. 6.8 Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

DeskEditionStateIdentifier
GCRI Systems EvidenceNo edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
GRF Public DeliberationNo edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
GRA Capital ReadinessNo edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Standards ProgressOutside this desk’s remitNot in remit
Academy CapabilityOutside this desk’s remitNot in remit
Index MeasurementNo edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Kenya’s risk: the grid is growing and mostly renewable, but losses are high, water and sanitation reach fewer people, and food insecurity is concentrated in the arid counties. Evidence is strongest for the grid and the inventory, and thinnest for ecosystems and recovery capability.

CLI-001 · ENE-003 · FOO-006 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people the risk arrives as a failed harvest, a power cut, a water interruption or a flood. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how losses and food prices fall on households and counties.

ENE-004 · FOO-006 · CLI-011

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Public debt is 71.3% of GDP in 2025 and the World Bank assesses a high risk of debt distress2430. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an endorsement.

CLI-002 · CLI-011

NEXUS

Synthesis

Kenya publishes strong open energy statistics and a reviewed national inventory. The 2027 programme should map grid and water dependencies, test the drought, grid and outbreak pathway at county scale, and bind the missing biodiversity, loss and household-survey series.

SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for Kenya. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Table 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
QuarterEditionQuestionBoundary
Q1State and AgendaWhat matters this year, and what is the starting position?observed baseline stays distinct from planned work
Q2Evidence and BuildWhat new evidence and capability have been developed?a configured capability is not a validated result
Q3Stress Test and ReadinessWhat do scenarios and tests reveal?simulated loss or performance is not observed impact
Q4Annual Synthesis and RenewalWhat did the year establish, and what changes next?release follows review, not event publicity deadlines
Table 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
Steward or bodyRoleContribution route
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada)Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)science and practice communities · GCRI gateway
The Global Risks Forum (GRF)leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M)policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)finance and insurance · GRA gateway
Nexus Standardspreparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methodsStandards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI
Risk Academylearning pathways tied to the agenda questionsAcademy gateway · learning by review
Kenyanational pathway: Desk, Leadership Council, Consortium, Working Groupsnational Commons room

Standards drafts used in this edition

  • Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
  • Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
  • Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech

Standards calendar to watch

  • Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
  • Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
  • Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

Geothermal supplies two-fifths of Kenya’s electricity, and wind, hydro and solar add more. The baseline treats this as a strength and asks what the 21.38% loss rate and the import share mean for resilience.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

A grid built on heat from the ground

Acute food insecurity, outbreaks and drought concentrate in a few north-eastern counties. Every risk object in this edition is read through how a failed season cascades there.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

The arid counties carry the risk

The 2024 floods hit many of the counties that the 2021–2023 drought had already weakened. Compound exposure, not single events, is the unit of analysis.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

Floods follow drought

Eighty percent of the 2035 cut is conditional on international support, and the 2035 level is higher than the 2030 level. The baseline reports this plainly and judges neither.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

A target that depends on support

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.3Q1 2027 readiness pack
ItemRegisterState at baselineFirst Q1 2027 entry
E1National risk state deltabaseline set by this editionchanges against the baseline
E2WEFH+B state deltafive system readings setindicator updates and freshness
E3Agenda and Portfolio movementeight agenda items · 7 proposed objectsadmission decisions
E4NWG delivery registerno groups yetfirst monthly outputs
E5NNC capability registermembership opens in Q1 2027first contributions
E6NLC questions and challengesnone yetfirst challenge log
E7Foundry technical stateenvironment preparedfirst sealed cut
E8Publication candidatestwelve findings carried forwardPUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9Universe readinessone candidate missionadmission and role spine
E10Correction registernonefirst correction cycle

Publication dispositions

  • Publish
  • Hold
  • Needs evidence
  • Restricted
  • Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

  • IN FORCE
  • ADOPTED
  • SUBMITTED
  • UNDER REVIEW
  • PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
Table 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
InstrumentBodyScopeStatusRelevance
Paris Agreement52 · second NDC, 35% below BAU in 203529UNFCCC · KenyanationalSUBMITTED 2025emissions target
Climate Change Act 2016, as amended in 202342Government of KenyanationalIN FORCEclimate governance
Climate Change (Carbon Markets) Regulations, 202443Government of KenyanationalIN FORCEcarbon markets
Energy Act, 201926Government of KenyanationalIN FORCEenergy regulation
Energy (Electricity Market, Bulk Supply and Open Access) Regulations, 202625Government of Kenya · EPRAnationalPUBLISHED 2026electricity market
Water Act, 201644Government of KenyanationalIN FORCEwater resources
Sustainable Waste Management Act, 202227Government of KenyanationalREPORTED POLICYwaste
Wildlife Conservation and Management Act, 201345Government of KenyanationalIN FORCEwildlife
Kunming-Montreal Framework51CBDinternationalADOPTED 202230by30
Sendai Framework 2015–203050UNDRRinternationalADOPTED 2015disaster risk reduction

Changed since 2024

  • Kenya submitted its second NDC on 30 April 20252729
  • The carbon markets regulations took effect in 202443
  • EPRA reports electricity market regulations for 202625

To watch in 2027

  • Implementation of the 2035 target and its conditional share29
  • The first operating year of the electricity market regulations25
  • Status of the Climate Change Act amendment and carbon-market rules, not verified at evidence close4243

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question
What does the published evidence establish about Kenya’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?
Sources searched
peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data
Window
releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection
sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step
systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027
Table 6.5Science and assessments
ReferenceTypeYearRoleUsed for
IPCC Working Group II, Africa chapter48assessment chapter2022contextAfrican impacts
Rapid analysis of the late-2023 Horn of Africa rains47attribution study2023contextrainfall extremes
Climate Action Tracker assessments2829independent assessment2026supportstarget analysis
Technical expert review of the first transparency report27UN review2026supportsinventory and target
Table 6.6Institutional reports
ReferenceIssuerYearRoleUsed for
National climate action plan 2023–2027, summary record38Government of Kenya via record2023listedpriority areas
Second climate contribution 2031–203546Government of Kenya2025listedtarget text
Country Climate and Development Report49World Bank2022listedpathways
Energy profile for Kenya36IRENA2025contextenergy supply
Table 6.7Official statistics and national sources
ReferenceIssuerYearRoleUsed for
Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report FY2025/2625EPRA2026supportsgrid
Crop monitoring brief32FAO GIEWS2026supportsfood
Weekly situation report33WHO Regional Office for Africa2026supportshealth emergencies
Agriculture survey, May 202634Central Bank of Kenya2026supportsagriculture output
Census 2019 and Economic Survey 20263940KNBS2019 · 2026listednot opened
Table 6.8Industry, loss data and international sources
ReferenceIssuerYearRoleUsed for
Network annual report 202435IFRC2025supportsfloods
World Bank indicator series1 to23World Bank2022–2025supportsprofile and services
Country series3031IMF2026contextmacro
SDG 6 country data37UN-Water2024supportswater stress and sanitation

Where the evidence agrees

  • Geothermal is the largest single source of Kenyan electricity2528
  • Agriculture is the largest driver of land-use emissions28
  • The arid and semi-arid counties are where acute food insecurity concentrates3233

Where it is unsettled

  • How many deaths the 2024 floods caused: counts differ by source and date3541
  • How to compare water stress: two series give 19.5% and 11% on different bases1237
  • How the 2035 target compares with the 2030 level: the two rest on different business-as-usual paths2729

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 24World Bank (ed.), Kenya: Overview, country page (poverty 43.3% at $3.00 a day in 2025, public debt 70.6% of GDP, high risk of debt distress). World Bank, Washington DC, observation year 2025, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 30International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper series NGDP_RPCH, PCPIPCH and GGXWDG_NGDP, Kenya, observation years 2023–2027. IMF, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 52UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. From memory.back
  4. 29Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Kenya: targets, 2035 NDC.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, update of 31 March 2026, observation year 2035, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Kenya (ed.), Climate Change Act, 2016, as amended in 2023. Nairobi. Title and status from memory and search summaries; check the text and the Kenya Gazette.back
  6. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Kenya (ed.), Climate Change (Carbon Markets) Regulations, 2024, Legal Notice 84. Nairobi, 2024. Title and effect from search summaries; the page returned no text.back
  7. 26Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (ed.), Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report for the Financial Year ended 30th June 2022. EPRA, Nairobi, 2022, observation year FY2021/22, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 25Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (ed.), Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report for the year ended 30th June 2026. EPRA, Nairobi, September 2026, observation year FY2025/26, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Kenya (ed.), Water Act, 2016. Nairobi, 2016. Title and status from memory.back
  10. 27UNFCCC (ed.), Report on the technical expert review of the first biennial transparency report of Kenya, FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/KEN. UNFCCC, Bonn, 13 February 2026, observation year 2022, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Kenya (ed.), Wildlife Conservation and Management Act, 2013. Nairobi, 2013. Title and status from memory.back
  12. 51UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. From memory.back
  13. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. From memory.back
  14. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: C. H. Trisos, I. O. Adelekan, E. Totin et al., “Africa,” in Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, 2022. From memory.back
  15. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: Imperial College London and partners (World Weather Attribution), rapid analysis of the late-2023 rains in the Horn of Africa. December 2023. Taken from a search result summary.back
  16. 28Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Kenya: country assessment.” Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, update of 31 March 2026, observation year 2022, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 38Government of Kenya (ed.), National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) III 2023–2027, read through the summary record of the Climate Change Laws of the World database (Grantham Research Institute); the plan itself was not opened. Nairobi, 2023, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Kenya (ed.), Kenya’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution (2031–2035). Submission to the UNFCCC, 30 April 2025. Title from a database record; target figures are read through [27] and [29].back
  19. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), Kenya Country Climate and Development Report. World Bank Group, Washington DC; year not confirmed. The page was reached only as a catalogue listing.back
  20. 36International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Energy Profile: Kenya. IRENA, Abu Dhabi, September 2025, observation years 2017–2024, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 32Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Kenya, reference date 4 May 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 33World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa (ed.), Weekly Situation Report, Kenya, Week 22: 31 May to 7 June 2026. WHO AFRO, Brazzaville, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 34Central Bank of Kenya (ed.), Agriculture Survey, May 2026, quoting the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Economic Survey 2026. CBK, Nairobi, May 2026, observation year 2025, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  24. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (ed.), 2019 Kenya Population and Housing Census. KNBS, Nairobi, 2019. The site did not respond at evidence close; no census figure is used in this edition.back
  25. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Economic Survey 2026. KNBS, Nairobi, April 2026. Figures attributed to it are read through the Central Bank of Kenya survey [34].back
  26. 35International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (ed.), Kenya: 2024 IFRC network annual report, January to December, in support of the Kenya Red Cross Society. IFRC, Geneva, 8 August 2025, observation year 2024, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  27. 1World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Population, total” (SP.POP.TOTL), Kenya, observation year 2025. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  28. 23World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (micrograms per cubic meter)” (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), Kenya, observation year 2023. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  29. 31International Monetary Fund (ed.), Kenya and the IMF, country page (last Article IV Executive Board consultation 17 January 2024; outstanding purchases and loans SDR 2,803.76 million at 31 March 2026). IMF, Washington DC, observation year 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  30. 37UN-Water (ed.), SDG 6 Data Portal, Kenya country snapshot (6.2.1a safely managed sanitation 2024; 6.4.2 water stress 2023; 6.5.1 IWRM implementation 2023). UN-Water, Geneva, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  31. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (ed.), Eastern Africa: Heavy rains and flooding, Flash Update 4, 30 May 2024. OCHA, Geneva, 2024. Figure of 315 deaths at 29 May 2024 taken from a search result summary; the page returned an access error.back
  32. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, “Annual freshwater withdrawals, total (% of internal resources)” (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), Kenya, observation year 2022. World Bank, Washington DC, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 6: Readings from the other desks. In Kenya Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Kenya’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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