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The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Kenya’s risk runs between its rains and its grid
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Failed rains, grid shortfall and outbreak in the arid counties
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. A-01

    How would a failed rainy season in the arid counties spread through food prices, health services and displacement, and how long would recovery take?

    INI-KEN-FOO-01 · arid-county compound stress; first output: dependency graph for three counties.

  2. A-02

    How exposed is power supply to hydrological swings, import contracts and curtailment of geothermal energy?

    INI-KEN-ENE-02 · grid exposure; first output: supply-mix and import table.

  3. A-03

    Where do distribution losses fall, and what do they cost in energy?

    INI-KEN-ENE-03 · system losses; first output: loss-by-region table.

  4. A-04

    Where do water and sanitation gaps overlap with outbreak counties?

    INI-KEN-WAT-04 · service gaps and outbreaks; first output: county-by-county register.

  5. A-05

    Where do flood losses fall on households, counties and the national budget?

    INI-KEN-FIN-05 · flood protection gap; first output: peril-by-county loss table.

  6. A-06

    How do river basins and reservoirs perform under multi-year drought?

    INI-KEN-WAT-01 · workstream; first output: basin performance note.

  7. A-07

    What is the condition of the ecosystems that supply water and energy, and how is it changing?

    To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note on catchments and rangelands.

  8. A-08

    Which capabilities have been tested in real disasters, and which are only planned?

    National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-KEN-FOO-01Arid-county compound stressInitiativeA-01PROPOSED
INI-KEN-ENE-02Grid exposure and importsInitiativeA-02PROPOSED
INI-KEN-ENE-03System lossesInitiativeA-03PROPOSED
INI-KEN-WAT-04Service gaps and outbreaksInitiativeA-04PROPOSED
INI-KEN-FIN-05Flood protection gapInitiativeA-05PROPOSED
PRJ-KEN-FOO-01aThree-county dependency graphProjectA-01PROPOSED
MSN-KEN-2027-01Drought, grid and outbreak Universe missionMissionA-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

Kenya is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in Kenya from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

  1. 01

    One National Agenda

    bounded national questions for the year

    DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

  2. 02

    National Desk

    coordination, records, routing and continuity

    DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

  3. 03

    National Model

    the country as a system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

  4. 04

    National Portfolio

    risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

    7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

  5. 05

    Foundry

    continuous computational environment

    PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-KEN-2027-Q1

  6. 06

    Reports

    quarterly and annual publication

    BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

  7. 07

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

  8. 08

    Evidence and correction

    after-action, correction and renewal

    OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNEDQ4 2027 annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-KEN-2027-01 · Drought, grid and outbreak Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
CLI-001 · emissionspublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
ENE-003 · generation mixINI-KEN-ENE-02grid exposurePUBLIC
ENE-004 · lossesINI-KEN-ENE-03loss and energyPUBLIC
WAT-005 · servicesINI-KEN-WAT-04service gaps and outbreaksPUBLIC
FOO-006 · food insecurityINI-KEN-FOO-01arid-county stressPUBLIC
CLI-011 · floodsINI-KEN-FIN-05 · key F reviewflood protection gapPUBLIC
HLT-009 · outbreaksresearch question A-04service continuityPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-KEN-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the national pathwayconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Weather warnings and rainfallKenya Meteorological DepartmentdailyCLI findings
Drought early warning bulletinsNational Drought Management AuthoritymonthlyFOO-006
Energy and petroleum statisticsEnergy and Petroleum Regulatory Authorityannual and biannualENE-003
Food security analysisIPC and FAO GIEWSperiodicFOO-006
Weekly emergency situation reportWHO Regional Office for Africa and Ministry of HealthweeklyHLT-009
Price and agriculture surveysCentral Bank of KenyaperiodicFOO-007
Population and economic statisticsKenya National Bureau of Statisticsper releaseprofile

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • quarterly publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-KEN-001Generation up 8.44% with a new peak demand25CORROBORATEDENE · FINrisk object RSK-KEN-ENE-003
SIG-KEN-0023.7 million in IPC Phase 3 or worse in the arid counties3233CORROBORATEDFOO · HLTinitiative A-01
SIG-KEN-003Concurrent outbreaks reported in June 202633CORROBORATEDHLT · WATinitiative A-04

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 25Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (ed.), Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report for the year ended 30th June 2026. EPRA, Nairobi, September 2026, observation year FY2025/26, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 32Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Kenya, reference date 4 May 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 33World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa (ed.), Weekly Situation Report, Kenya, Week 22: 31 May to 7 June 2026. WHO AFRO, Brazzaville, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Kenya Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Kenya’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-KEN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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