- Kenya 2026
- Annex A
Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Kenya’s risk runs between its rains and its grid
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Failed rains, grid shortfall and outbreak in the arid counties
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | Generation growth since FY2021/22 | 15,692.81 ÷ 12,652.74 − 1 | ≈ +24.0% |
| (2) | 2030 target level from the 2020 business-as-usual level | 143 × (1 − 0.32) | ≈ 97.24 Mt |
| (3) | 2035 level at 35% below business-as-usual | 215 × (1 − 0.35), minus the 2030 target level of 97.24 | ≈ 139.75 Mt; ≈ 42.5 Mt above the 2030 level |
| (4) | Geothermal energy curtailed, as a share of geothermal energy delivered | 392.36 ÷ 6,420.51 | ≈ 6.1% |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at national scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card, National Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-KEN-NATIONAL · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent Kenya as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- national scale; not for county or asset-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
9strong
documented within one season
7moderate
documented, buffered
4weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.
- Cut ID
- NQ-KEN-2026-Q0-1
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 54 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- NQ-KEN-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | Q1 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited publications, pinned by edition | qualified source bindings with versions |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | National Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to the cut |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population, life expectancy, services | 2024–2025 | World Bank, 2026 vintage | annual | next vintage |
| GHG inventory | 2022 | Feb 2026 | biennial | next transparency report |
| 2035 climate target | 2025 | Apr 2025 | periodic | next NDC cycle |
| Electricity statistics | FY2025/26 | Sep 2026 | annual | biannual report, Mar 2027 |
| Food insecurity (IPC) | Apr to Jun 2026 | May 2026 | periodic | next IPC update |
| Health emergencies | to 7 Jun 2026 | Jun 2026 | weekly | weekly |
| Agriculture output | 2025 | May 2026 | periodic | Economic Survey 2027 |
| Flood deaths and households | 2024 | Aug 2025 | per event | per event |
| Protected areas | 2025 | 2026 vintage | annual | next vintage |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Climate forcing | PARTIAL | rainfall extremes by county; sector emissions |
| Energy | PARTIAL | reservoir storage; import contracts |
| Food | PARTIAL | household survey; maize in tonnes |
| Health | PARTIAL | water-related illness; census counts |
| Water | THIN | storage, flow and utility performance |
| Biodiversity | THIN | threat status and condition |
| Finance | THIN | insured share of loss |
| Digital | THIN | dependency mapping |
A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources
Issued by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority. Annual, year to 30 June 2026. Role: binds ENE-003, ENE-004 and the generation chart; read in full.
EVD-KEN-001
EPRA statistics report FY2025/2625
Issued under the UNFCCC, report FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/KEN, 13 February 2026. Periodic. Role: binds CLI-001 and the target level; read in full.
EVD-KEN-002
Technical expert review of the first transparency report27
| Dimension | EVD-KEN-001 | EVD-KEN-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | all generation, capacity and loss series | inventory 1990–2022, all sectors |
| Timeliness | about 3 months after year end | about 38 months after the inventory year |
| Revision | prior-year values restated in each report | back-revised with each inventory |
| Method transparency | definitions stated in the report | review methodology published |
| External validation | not stated in the report | UN technical review in May 2025 |
Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| ASAL | arid and semi-arid lands |
| BAU | business as usual |
| CBK | Central Bank of Kenya |
| EPRA | Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority |
| FAO | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations |
| GIEWS | Global Information and Early Warning System |
| IFRC | International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies |
| IMF | International Monetary Fund |
| IPC | Integrated Food Security Phase Classification |
| KNBS | Kenya National Bureau of Statistics |
| NDC | nationally determined contribution |
| TERT | technical expert review team |
| WDI | World Development Indicators |
| WHO AFRO | World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the baseline indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-KEN-DRT-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | Q1 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | Q2 2027 |
| A.7 | County notes | atlas cards for every county | Q2 2027 |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition, system losses
- Construct
- electrical energy lost in transmission and distribution, technical and commercial, as a share of energy supplied
- Unit
- percent of energy
- Scope
- the interconnected national system, year to 30 June
- Source
- EPRA statistics report FY2025/2625
- Revision
- restated in each annual report
- Known limits
- the allowable level of 16.5% is the regulator’s benchmark, not a technical minimum
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 25Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (ed.), Energy and Petroleum Statistics Report for the year ended 30th June 2026. EPRA, Nairobi, September 2026, observation year FY2025/26, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 27UNFCCC (ed.), Report on the technical expert review of the first biennial transparency report of Kenya, FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/KEN. UNFCCC, Bonn, 13 February 2026, observation year 2022, accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Kenya, reference date 4 May 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026, accessed 2026-11-03.back