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Reports · GCRI · Findings
Findings observatory
Every finding, with its status and its source.
Each finding of the drafted editions has a stable ID, a status glyph, an evidence-quality level where the edition gives one and numbered references.
- Findings
- 132
- in 11 drafted editions
- Systems
- 19
- codes in the finding IDs
- Reported
- 117
- published by a named source
Where the findings sit.
Counts of findings by the system code in their ID. A count is coverage, never a score.
- Adoption ADO
- 1 finding
- Biodiversity BIO
- 10 findings
- Climate forcing CLI
- 24 findings
- Compute CMP
- 2 findings
- Development DEV
- 1 finding
- Energy ENE
- 17 findings
- Finance FIN
- 15 findings
- Food FOO
- 7 findings
- Geopolitics GEO
- 1 finding
- Governance GOV
- 3 findings
- Health HLT
- 12 findings
- Infrastructure INF
- 1 finding
- Labour LAB
- 2 findings
- Minerals MIN
- 1 finding
- Safety SAF
- 1 finding
- SEI SEI
- 2 findings
- Systemic SYS
- 11 findings
- Trade TRD
- 2 findings
- Water WAT
- 19 findings
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JPNJapan
Greenhouse-gas emissions were 1,071 Mt CO₂e in FY2023: 4.0% below FY2022 and 23.3% below FY2013 (27.1% net of removals).
Renewables and nuclear together supplied more than 30% of electricity in FY2023; Japan still imports almost all of its fossil fuel.
2024 was the warmest year on record in Japan; the long-term warming trend is about 1.4 °C per century.
The 2025 revision of the Nankai Trough damage estimate gives up to about 298,000 deaths and ¥292 trillion in damage in the worst case.
The January 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake cut water, roads and care across an ageing region for months.
Food self-sufficiency was 38% on a calorie basis in FY2023, against a target of 45% by FY2030.
About 97,600 people were taken to hospital by ambulance for heatstroke between May and September 2024.
29.3% of the population was aged 65 or over in 2024, and births fell to about 686,000.
Protected areas covered about 20.5% of land and 13.3% of the sea in 2023, against 30% by 2030.
About one in three households holds earthquake insurance; public infrastructure losses are largely uninsured.
Dependence on imported fuel, food and feed makes global price and shipping shocks a direct national risk.
The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a large earthquake in an ageing region that cuts water, power, roads and care together.
Global temperature was 1.43 ± 0.13 °C above 1850–1900 in 2025, after a record 1.55 °C in 2024; 2015–2025 are the eleven warmest years.
Natural disasters caused US$224 billion in losses in 2025, of which US$108 billion (48%) was insured.
Insured shares differ sharply by region: about 70% in North America, about half in Europe, about 12% in Asia and under a fifth in Africa (2025).
Energy-related CO₂ emissions reached a record 37.8 Gt in 2024; total greenhouse-gas emissions were 57.1 Gt CO₂e in 2023.
Data centres used about 415 TWh of electricity in 2024, about 1.5% of the world total, with use projected to roughly double by 2030.
About 673 million people faced hunger in 2024, and 2.3 billion were moderately or severely food insecure.
2.2 billion people lacked safely managed drinking water and 3.5 billion lacked safely managed sanitation in 2022.
Ambient and household air pollution together cause about 6.7 million deaths a year.
Monitored wildlife populations declined by 73% on average between 1970 and 2020; 17.6% of land and 8.4% of the ocean are protected.
Six of nine planetary boundaries were assessed as transgressed in 2023, and five major tipping systems are at risk at current warming.
Public debt reached US$102 trillion in 2024; 3.4 billion people live in countries that spend more on interest than on health or education.
The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a concurrent breadbasket shortfall coinciding with an energy and fertiliser price shock.
CANCanada
National GHG emissions were 685 Mt CO₂e in 2024: 10.3% below 2005 and 0.3% below 2023.
Insured catastrophe losses reached a record C$9.1 billion in 2024, then C$2.4 billion in 2025, with 17 catastrophes declared.
Insurance has covered about 54% of societal catastrophe losses over 43 years; the long-run loss trend is rising by about 9% a year after inflation.
Oil and gas remained the largest emitting sector (208 Mt, 30%, up 1.8%), while methane fell to its lowest level on record (105 Mt CO₂e).
Electricity emitted 50 Mt CO₂e (7.2%). Hydro’s dominance makes multi-year drought a direct risk to supply and to exports.
Canada holds about 7% of the world’s renewable freshwater; most of it drains north, away from population and agriculture.
Canada has warmed at about twice the global rate (1.7 °C, 1948–2016), and northern Canada faster still.
The 2021 heat dome caused 619 heat-related deaths in British Columbia, establishing heat as a first-order health–power coupling.
Protected and conserved areas covered 13.7% of land and 14.7% of marine territory in 2023, against a 30% target for 2030.
The 2023 wildfire season burned more than 15 million hectares, the largest on record, and 2025 led the record for fire catastrophes declared.
About three-quarters of goods exports go to the United States, so trade policy is the main channel for economic shocks in 2026–2027.
The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing runs from heat and drought through hydro shortfall, wildfire smoke and rail disruption into health and food logistics in Western Canada.
Gross greenhouse-gas emissions were 6,343 Mt CO₂e in 2022; net emissions were about 17% below 2005.
North America carried US$133 billion of 2025’s US$224 billion in global disaster losses; about US$93 billion was insured.
The January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires caused about US$53 billion in losses, US$40 billion insured, the costliest wildfire disaster on record.
The contiguous United States has warmed about 1.4 °C since 1970, faster than the global average.
There were 27 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2024, after a record 28 in 2023.
Data centres used about 4.4% of US electricity in 2023, with 6.7–12% projected for 2028.
Water withdrawals were about 322 billion gallons a day in 2015; thermoelectric power took 41% and irrigation 37%.
The first-ever shortage on the Colorado River was declared in August 2021 for the lower basin.
Heat-related deaths reached a record 2,325 in 2023.
13.5% of US households were food insecure in 2023.
About 40% of animal species and 34% of plant species in the United States are at risk of extinction.
The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing runs from Western heat and drought through wildfire and grid stress into health, water and insurance availability.
Territorial greenhouse-gas emissions were 373 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 3% below 2023 and 53% below 1990.
The UK’s last coal-fired power station closed in September 2024, ending 142 years of coal power.
2022 was the first year with a UK mean temperature above 10 °C, and 40.3 °C was recorded on 19 July 2022.
About 2,985 heat-associated deaths were recorded in England in summer 2022.
England faces a public water-supply shortfall of nearly 5 billion litres a day by 2055 without new action.
About 6.3 million properties in England are in areas at risk of flooding, potentially around 8 million by 2050.
Storm overflows in England spilled more than 460,000 times in 2023.
The UK produces around 60% of the food it consumes.
Studied species have declined in abundance by 19% on average since 1970; one in six is at risk of extinction in Great Britain.
A substation fire closed Heathrow Airport for most of 21 March 2025, showing single points of failure in critical infrastructure.
The third UK climate risk assessment identified 61 risks and opportunities; the National Risk Register 2023 sets out 89 risks.
The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a hot, dry summer in which heat, drought, water shortage and grassland fires load health, water, rail and power at once.
FRAFrance
Territorial emissions were 369 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 1.8% below 2023 and 32% below 1990.
Meeting the 2030 target of 270 Mt requires cuts of about 15 Mt a year; the 2024 cut was about 7 Mt.
2022 was the warmest year on record in metropolitan France.
Nuclear output fell to 279 TWh in 2022, the lowest since 1988, as corrosion repairs and heat-limited cooling coincided.
Electricity was about 95% low-carbon in 2024; power-sector emissions fell 26% as nuclear and hydro output recovered.
Heat caused more than 3,700 deaths in summer 2024; about three quarters were among people aged 75 and over.
France produces about 18% of the EU’s agricultural output, the largest share of any member state.
Agriculture accounts for about 58% of freshwater consumed; the Plan Eau targets a 10% cut in withdrawals by 2030.
About 10.4 million detached houses are exposed to clay shrink-swell subsidence, a leading cost of the CatNat regime.
Natural-event insurance claims reached about €10 billion in 2022, the highest since 1999.
Farmland bird populations have declined by about 30% since 1989.
The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a hot, dry summer in which low river flows constrain nuclear cooling while heat, drought, wildfire and clay subsidence load health, food and insurance.
DEUGermany
Greenhouse-gas emissions were 649 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 3.4% below 2023 and 48% below 1990.
The 2030 target of 65% below 1990 (about 438 Mt) requires cuts of about 35 Mt a year.
2024 was the warmest year in the German record, which begins in 1881.
The July 2021 floods killed more than 180 people in Germany, 135 in the Ahr valley, and caused damage of about €40 billion.
Only about 54% of residential buildings carry natural-hazard insurance.
Renewables supplied about 54% of gross electricity consumption in 2024; the last nuclear reactors closed in April 2023.
Russian pipeline gas stopped in 2022; supply was secured through storage, new LNG terminals and demand reduction.
About 4,500 heat-related deaths were estimated in 2022.
Low water on the Rhine in 2018 and 2022 restricted freight shipping and industrial supply.
Flying-insect biomass declined by more than 75% over 27 years in protected areas.
About 500,000 hectares of forest were damaged by drought, heat and bark beetles between 2018 and 2021.
The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a hot, dry summer in which low Rhine water cuts freight and industrial supply while heat, drought and forest fires load health, forests and power.
ITAItaly
Greenhouse-gas emissions were 363 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 3.6% below 2023 and 30.2% below 1990.
Transport emissions are about 11% above 1990, and the 2030 effort-sharing target of −43.7% against 2005 is off track on current policies.
2024 was the warmest year in the Italian record.
Italy recorded 18,010 heat-related deaths in summer 2022, the highest number of any European country.
A further 12,743 heat-related deaths were estimated in 2023.
The May 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna killed 17 people and caused damage of about €8.5 billion.
About 94% of municipalities are exposed to landslides, floods or coastal erosion; 6.8 million people live in medium flood-hazard areas and 1.3 million in high landslide-hazard areas.
42.4% of the water fed into municipal networks was lost in 2022.
Renewables met 41.2% of electricity demand in 2024; Russian gas fell from about 40% of imports in 2021 to under 5% by 2023.
About 40% of buildings stand in medium-high seismic zones; the 2016 earthquake killed 299 people, and the Campi Flegrei produced M4.4 and M4.6 earthquakes in 2024–2025.
Only 7.3% of homes are insured against earthquake and flood, and about 16% of firms complied with the business insurance mandate a year after it began.
The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a drought-to-flood year: a hot, dry summer on the Po followed by autumn cloudbursts on dried soils.
GS-01Global Water
2.2 billion people lacked safely managed drinking water and 3.5 billion lacked safely managed sanitation in 2022.
Roughly half of the world’s population experiences severe water scarcity for at least part of the year.
Global water use has grown by about 1% a year over the past forty years.
2023 was the driest year for global rivers in 33 years, and glaciers lost more than 600 Gt of water.
Groundwater supplies about half of domestic withdrawals and about a quarter of irrigation water; declines have accelerated in many aquifers.
Agriculture accounts for about 70% of freshwater withdrawals, tying water stress directly to food production and prices.
Energy production accounts for about 10% of global freshwater withdrawals, mainly for cooling thermal power plants.
Unsafe drinking water, sanitation and hygiene caused about 1.4 million deaths in 2019.
Freshwater wildlife populations declined by 85% on average between 1970 and 2020, and 22% of wetland area has been lost since 1970.
Floods, severe storms and wildfires caused US$166 billion of the US$224 billion in natural-disaster losses in 2025.
153 countries share transboundary rivers, lakes or aquifers; most do not yet have operational arrangements covering all of them.
The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a multi-basin drought that cuts hydropower and irrigated yields at once while heat raises demand.
SR-01Global Polycrisis
Global temperature was 1.43 ± 0.13 °C above 1850–1900 in 2025, after a record 1.55 °C in 2024; 2015–2025 are the eleven warmest years.
Natural disasters caused US$224 billion in losses in 2025, of which US$108 billion (48%) was insured.
Insured shares differ sharply by region: about 70% in North America, about half in Europe, about 12% in Asia and under a fifth in Africa (2025).
Energy-related CO₂ emissions reached a record 37.8 Gt in 2024; total greenhouse-gas emissions were 57.1 Gt CO₂e in 2023.
Data centres used about 415 TWh of electricity in 2024, about 1.5% of the world total, with use projected to roughly double by 2030.
About 673 million people faced hunger in 2024, and 2.3 billion were moderately or severely food insecure.
2.2 billion people lacked safely managed drinking water and 3.5 billion lacked safely managed sanitation in 2022.
Ambient and household air pollution together cause about 6.7 million deaths a year.
Monitored wildlife populations declined by 73% on average between 1970 and 2020; 17.6% of land and 8.4% of the ocean are protected.
Six of nine planetary boundaries were assessed as transgressed in 2023, and five major tipping systems are at risk at current warming.
Public debt reached US$102 trillion in 2024; 3.4 billion people live in countries that spend more on interest than on health or education.
The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a concurrent breadbasket shortfall coinciding with an energy and fertiliser price shock.
XT-01Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems
Data centres used about 415 TWh of electricity in 2024, about 1.5% of the world total; the IEA projects about 945 TWh by 2030.
Data centres used about 4.4% of US electricity in 2023, with 6.7–12% projected for 2028.
The training compute of frontier models has grown by four to five times a year since about 2010.
The cost of using a model at GPT-3.5 level fell more than 280-fold between November 2022 and October 2024.
About 92% of leading-edge logic-chip capacity was in Taiwan in 2019; key mineral refining is concentrated in a few countries.
78% of organisations reported using AI in 2024, up from 55% in 2023; corporate AI investment reached about US$252 billion.
Between about a quarter and two-fifths of global employment is exposed to AI, depending on definition.
Employers expect 170 million jobs to be created and 92 million displaced by 2030, with technology a leading driver.
Reported AI incidents reached a record 233 in 2024, up 56% on 2023.
Binding AI law has begun: the EU AI Act applies in phases from 2025, alongside a Council of Europe convention and UN governance bodies.
About 2.6 billion people remained offline in 2024, limiting who can benefit from AI.
The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is an advanced-chip supply disruption coinciding with grid constraints at major data-centre clusters.
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