- North America 2026
- Executive summary
Executive summary
The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1North America’s risk travels through shared rivers, grids and pipelines
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Dry, hot summer across the Colorado and Rio Grande basins and the southern grids
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
S.1Abstract
North America, as the series reads it, is three member countries (Canada, the United States and Mexico) that share rivers, power grids and gas pipelines, and that trade under a single regional agreement. Together they had 515.4 million residents in 2025, of whom 341.8 million lived in the United States1. Canada reported 685 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 10.3% below 200514. On one common basis that excludes land use, the three members emitted 7,367 Mt CO₂e in 20246. Hydropower supplied 54.0% of Canadian electricity in 2025, while oil, gas and coal supplied 75.4% of Mexican and 57.6% of United States electricity5. United States pipelines exported 2.42 trillion cubic feet of gas to Mexico in 202525. The Bureau of Reclamation issued its decision record for post-2026 Colorado River operations on 21 August 202619. Reservoir levels and the extent of drought at the close are not bound. Mexico delivered 884,861 acre-feet of Rio Grande water in the cycle that ended on 24 October 2025, against a treaty minimum of 1.75 million2324. This Baseline Edition fixes the 2026 reference state from sources that could be read at evidence close. Where a national dataset could not be read, it shows as a designed empty state that names the source and the blocker. The edition decides nothing and ranks no member country.
S.2Key messages
Six readings that frame the North America baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
Canada reported 685 Mt in 2024. The three members together emitted 7,367 Mt excluding land use on the World Bank basis. Bases differ.614
Where do emissions stand?Reported
A 1909 treaty created the International Joint Commission for Canada and the United States, and a 1944 treaty sets Rio Grande and Colorado River deliveries between Mexico and the United States.2735
What governs the shared rivers?Reported
Canada leans on hydropower, Mexico on oil, gas and coal, and the United States on a mixed supply.5
How is electricity supplied?Reported
United States pipelines sent 2.42 trillion cubic feet to Mexico in 2025.25
How tied is gas supply?Reported
The Bureau of Reclamation issued its record of decision on 21 August 2026. Reservoir levels at the close are not bound.19
What governs the Colorado River after 2026?Reported
Canada burnt 14.6 million hectares in 2023. Drought extent in the United States at the close is not bound.21
How severe are drought and fire?Reported
Insured and uninsured loss series are not bound in this edition.3133
Who carries disaster losses?Not bound
Low Colorado and Rio Grande supply, heat load and grid stress coinciding across member borders. SCN-NAM-DRY-01
What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input
S.3Headline finding
ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006
Mexico delivered 884,861 acre-feet of Rio Grande water in the cycle that ended on 24 October 2025, against a treaty minimum of 1.75 million acre-feet per cycle.
| Item | Bar, scaled to the largest value | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Delivered by Mexico | 884,861 | |
| Treaty minimum | 1,750,000 |
Source: International Boundary and Water Commission release on the cycle of 25 October 2020 to 24 October 202524, and the 1944 treaty terms35. The delivery figure was not read from the issuer.
Mexico’s deliveries follow from the 1944 treaty and from conditions in the shared basin. A shortfall against the minimum matters on both sides of the border for farms and cities that rely on the river232435.
S.4At a glance
S.5What each steward reads in it
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports a coupled reading of North American risk: drought, heat and fire act on water, energy and health together.
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people risk arrives as a smoke day, a water restriction or a price change.
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Insured and uninsured loss series by member are not bound, and trade rules are under annual review.
NEXUS
Synthesis
The region publishes strong statistics on emissions, reservoirs and drought.
S.6What this edition is, and is not
What this edition is
A baseline: the state of North America’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026 read across Canada, United States, Mexico. It reads the shared basins and grids that no single member controls, and sets out the questions the operational series will answer.
What it is not
Not a regional risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and each member’s ownership of its own edition is unaffected. It does not stand for the European Union, which is a separate subject in the series.
What comes next
Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline: new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Canada, Mexico and United States, retrieved through the World Bank indicators interface (last updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions (Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators): 685 Mt CO2 eq in 2024, 10.3% below 2005 and 0.3% below 2023. Government of Canada, Gatineau. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: electricity production from oil, gas and coal, nuclear and hydroelectric sources, share of total (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.NUCL.ZS, EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), U.S. natural gas pipeline exports by country (Mexico 2,422,839 and Canada 1,033,487 million cubic feet in 2025). EIA, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), Post-2026 Colorado River reservoir operations (page updated 3 September 2026: draft EIS 9 January 2026, final EIS 31 July 2026, record of decision 21 August 2026, 2007 interim guidelines and 2019 drought contingency plans expiring at the end of 2026). Reclamation, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), Mexico deliveries of Rio Grande water (page opened states the 350,000 acre-feet a year minimum, 1,750,000 acre-feet per five-year cycle and a cycle start of 25 October 2020; delivery graphs not readable). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), release on the cycle of 25 October 2020 to 24 October 2025 (884,861 acre-feet delivered, from search summaries). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 27International Joint Commission (ed.), Mission: prevents and resolves disputes between Canada and the United States under the Boundary Waters Treaty of 1909; three commissioners from each country. IJC, Ottawa and Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Mexico and the United States (eds.), Treaty on the utilisation of waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande, 1944 (taken from memory). Treaty text, 1944. Observation year 1944. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 21Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Forest fires: the 2023 season (more than 14.6 million hectares, more than 6,800 fires, more than 230,000 evacuations; typical year more than 2.1 million hectares). Government of Canada, Ottawa. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 31NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (ed.), U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters (page opened returned no figures). NOAA NCEI, Asheville. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Insurance Bureau of Canada (ed.), insured catastrophe losses (the page requested returned not found). IBC, Toronto. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), Canada, Mexico and United States (last updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back