Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

8 min read0 figures5 tables22 notesNR-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1North America’s risk travels through shared rivers, grids and pipelines
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Dry, hot summer across the Colorado and Rio Grande basins and the southern grids
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Member countries: the baseline regional chapter
    2. 8.2 Shared basins and grids: the baseline regional chapter
    3. 8.3 Hub list: the baseline regional chapter
    4. 8.4 Regional pathway: the baseline regional chapter
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Member countries: the baseline regional chapter

The three member countries named in the series registry, read side by side on the same indicators. No union or bloc shares the region code in the registry, so there is no reference group in this edition.

515.4million

residents of the three members, 20251

7,367Mt CO₂e

emissions excluding land use, 20246

34.9trillion US$

combined output at current prices, 20254

Table 8.1Member system cards at baseline
MemberState at baselineEvidenceStatus
Canadapopulation 41.65 million; emissions 685 Mt (national inventory, 2024); hydropower 54.0% and oil, gas and coal 21.7% of electricity; wildfire seasons of 2023 and 202515142122Reported
United Statespopulation 341.78 million; emissions 5,913 Mt excluding land use; oil, gas and coal 57.6% of electricity; drought extent at the close not bound156Reported
Mexicopopulation 131.95 million; emissions 687 Mt excluding land use; oil, gas and coal 75.4% of electricity; freshwater withdrawal 44.9% of resources in 20221568Reported

Couplings across members

  • CLI → WAT across the Colorado and Rio Grande basins (United States, Mexico)
  • ENE → ENE through shared grids and gas pipelines
  • CLI → HLT smoke and heat across Canada and the United States
  • FIN ← CLI losses carried by insurers across borders

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • member emissions on one basis including land use
  • flood, fire and heat loss series by member
  • Mexican drought share

8.2Shared basins and grids: the baseline regional chapter

Shared basins, grids and gas supply carry risk across member borders. This chapter names each system, the members involved and the evidence read at baseline. Rows without a source are designed empty states.

1.75million acre-feet

treaty minimum of Mexican Rio Grande deliveries per cycle35

884,861acre-feet

Mexican Rio Grande deliveries, cycle ended 24 October 202524

2.42trillion ft³

US pipeline gas exports to Mexico, 202525

Table 8.2Shared basins and seas
BasinMembers involvedEvidenceStatus
Colorado RiverUnited States and Mexico; the 2026 decision record; reservoir levels at the close not bound1939Reported
Rio GrandeUnited States and Mexico; treaty minimum of 350,000 acre-feet a year on average2335Reported
Great Lakes and boundary watersCanada and United States; the International Joint Commission has six commissioners273637Reported
Columbia RiverCanada and United States; no source read38NOT BOUND
Table 8.3Shared grids and gas networks
GridMembers involvedEvidenceStatus
Cross-border electricityCanada and the United States, and the United States and Mexico, are linked by transmission; flow and capacity series not bound1830NOT BOUND
Gas pipelinesUS pipeline exports 2.42 trillion cubic feet to Mexico and 1.03 trillion to Canada in 202525Reported
Canadian gridhydropower 60% of generation in 2021; grid intensity 100 g CO₂e per kWh in 202218Reported
Reliability outlookreliability organisation exists; assessment text not read30NOT BOUND

Couplings through shared systems

  • CLI → WAT → ENE low reservoir levels into hydropower and cooling water
  • INF → ENE a grid or pipeline fault crossing borders
  • TRD → ENE gas or trade rule change into power prices
  • WAT → FOO irrigation and treaty deliveries

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • new-cycle Rio Grande deliveries
  • cross-border flows and capacity
  • Columbia River arrangements
  • gas storage depth

8.3Hub list: the baseline regional chapter

The hubs the series registry names for this region and for its member countries. The list is read from the registry, so a change there changes this page.

Registry

Regional hubs
Toronto · Washington
Desks with a remit
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · GRX
Registry record
NR-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Table 8.4Member hubs as the registry names them
HubMemberRegistry roleMember edition
TorontoCanadaG20 · HQ · seatdrafted (pack in review)
WashingtonUnited StatesG20 · hub · seatdrafted (pack in review)
not named in the registryMexicoG20in preparation

What a hub does in this series

  • Hub terms of reference are not set at baseline
  • Hub contact points are not named at baseline
  • The registry names the hubs and the desks with a remit; working arrangements follow from Q1 2027

8.4Regional pathway: the baseline regional chapter

The regional pathway is the route through which the series will read North America as one region from 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next. It does not describe any body that has not been constituted.

Table 8.5The regional pathway at baseline
StageWhat exists todayStateNext
Regional hubsToronto and Washington are named in the series registry; no hub is named for MexicoNAMEDterms set from Q1 2027
DesksGCRI, GRF and GRX hold the remit for regional editions in the registryNAMEDwork plan for Q1 2027
Evidence graphmember and regional findings share identifiersPREPAREDfirst sealed cut NQ-REG-NAM-2027-Q1
Member editionsCanada drafted (pack in review); United States drafted (pack in review); Mexico in preparationMIXEDreview through the chain before release

Open at baseline

  • Constitution of any regional council or working group
  • Hub terms of reference and contact points
  • A hub for Mexico

Decisions that rest elsewhere

  • Energy, water and health policy rest with national and subnational authorities
  • Treaty and trade terms are set by the governments; this edition cites them and decides nothing
  • The trade agreement is not a subject in the series registry and is never joined to the region on code

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Canada, Mexico and United States, retrieved through the World Bank indicators interface (last updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 4DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), Canada, Mexico and United States (last updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: electricity production from oil, gas and coal, nuclear and hydroelectric sources, share of total (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.NUCL.ZS, EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 14Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions (Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators): 685 Mt CO2 eq in 2024, 10.3% below 2005 and 0.3% below 2023. Government of Canada, Gatineau. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 21Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Forest fires: the 2023 season (more than 14.6 million hectares, more than 6,800 fires, more than 230,000 evacuations; typical year more than 2.1 million hectares). Government of Canada, Ottawa. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (ed.), 2025 national season statistics (more than 7.5 million hectares by mid-August, second-largest area in the federal record; taken from search summaries because the statistics page was refused). CIFFC, Winnipeg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: level of water stress, freshwater withdrawal as a share of available resources (ER.H2O.FWST.ZS), and renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 23International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), Mexico deliveries of Rio Grande water (page opened states the 350,000 acre-feet a year minimum, 1,750,000 acre-feet per five-year cycle and a cycle start of 25 October 2020; delivery graphs not readable). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 29Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático (ed.), Inventario nacional de emisiones de gases y compuestos de efecto invernadero (page opened reports the 2015 inventory, 683 Mt CO2e, and is dated May 2018). INECC, Mexico City. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Mexico and the United States (eds.), Treaty on the utilisation of waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande, 1944 (taken from memory). Treaty text, 1944. Observation year 1944. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), release on the cycle of 25 October 2020 to 24 October 2025 (884,861 acre-feet delivered, from search summaries). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 25U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), U.S. natural gas pipeline exports by country (Mexico 2,422,839 and Canada 1,033,487 million cubic feet in 2025). EIA, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 19U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), Post-2026 Colorado River reservoir operations (page updated 3 September 2026: draft EIS 9 January 2026, final EIS 31 July 2026, record of decision 21 August 2026, 2007 interim guidelines and 2019 drought contingency plans expiring at the end of 2026). Reclamation, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), Minute 323 on Colorado River arrangements (taken from memory). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 27International Joint Commission (ed.), Mission: prevents and resolves disputes between Canada and the United States under the Boundary Waters Treaty of 1909; three commissioners from each country. IJC, Ottawa and Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of the United States and Great Britain for Canada (eds.), Boundary Waters Treaty, 1909 (taken from memory; the commission page opened confirms the year). Treaty text, 1909. Observation year 1909. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Canada and the United States (eds.), Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (taken from memory). IJC, Windsor. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Canada and the United States (eds.), Columbia River Treaty (taken from memory; the ministry page opened was not found). Treaty text, 1961. Observation year 1961. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 18Canada Energy Regulator (ed.), Provincial and territorial energy profiles: Canada (hydro 60% of 625.7 TWh in 2021, wind and solar 7%, grid intensity from 220 to 100 g CO2e per kWh between 2005 and 2022). CER, Calgary. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: North American Electric Reliability Corporation (ed.), Long-term reliability assessment (the page opened gave only a headline fragment about regions at elevated risk). NERC, Atlanta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: IISD and White & Case (eds.), analyses of the first joint review of the regional trade agreement on 1 July 2026 (no extension agreed, annual reviews, agreement in force to 1 July 2036; both pages refused, taken from search summaries). IISD, Winnipeg; White & Case, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In North America Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of North America’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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