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The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 Regional Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables4 notesNR-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1North America’s risk travels through shared rivers, grids and pipelines
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Dry, hot summer across the Colorado and Rio Grande basins and the southern grids
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027: evidence pack for the regional candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. A-01

    How would a dry, hot summer load the Colorado and Rio Grande systems, farms, cities and the grid across member borders?

    INI-NAM-CLI-01 · compound summer stress; first output: dependency graph for the Colorado and Rio Grande basins.

  2. A-02

    How much do the three power systems and the gas pipelines depend on each other in a cold or hot extreme?

    INI-NAM-ENE-02 · gas and grid resilience; first output: cross-border flow register.

  3. A-03

    How do reservoir levels and treaty deliveries reach cities, farms and hydropower?

    INI-NAM-WAT-03 · shared basins; first output: basin performance note for the Colorado River.

  4. A-04

    How many deaths can be attributed to heat and smoke, by member and year?

    INI-NAM-HLT-04 · heat, smoke and health; first output: attribution baseline for three members.

  5. A-05

    Where do disaster losses fall between insurers, households and public budgets?

    INI-NAM-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-member loss table.

  6. A-06

    What is the condition of habitats and how is it measured across members?

    INI-NAM-BIO-01 · workstream; first output: condition indicator note.

  7. A-07

    How exposed are crop output and food trade to concurrent drought, heat and trade shocks?

    To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. A-08

    Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

    Regional capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Six initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 regional portfolio. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-NAM-CLI-01Compound summer stress: rivers, heat and gridInitiativeA-01PROPOSED
INI-NAM-ENE-02Gas and grid resilience across bordersInitiativeA-02PROPOSED
INI-NAM-WAT-03Shared basins in dry yearsInitiativeA-03PROPOSED
INI-NAM-HLT-04Heat, smoke and health attributionInitiativeA-04PROPOSED
INI-NAM-FIN-05Disaster protection gapInitiativeA-05PROPOSED
PRJ-NAM-CLI-01aColorado and Rio Grande compound summer dependency graphProjectA-01PROPOSED
MSN-NAM-2027-01Rivers, heat and grid Universe missionMissionA-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

The North America regional pathway is the route through which the Nexus operating system will read North America as one region from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its hubs are named in the series registry; its working arrangements are set from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

  1. 01

    National Foundries

    continuous national evidence environments

    PREPARED · first sealed cuts in Q1 2027

  2. 02

    National Models and Portfolios

    each country as a system of systems

    CANADA v0 ISSUED · 25 further national baselines

  3. 03

    Quarterly national reports

    State & Agenda, Evidence, Stress Test, Annual

    BASELINE STAGE · Q1 2027 opens the series

  4. 04

    Regional aggregation

    North America as one of ten regional clusters

    THIS EDITION · annual regional cut from 2027

  5. 05

    Global sector and strategic models

    GS-01…15 · SR-01…14 · XT-01…20

    49 PLANNED · pilots: GS-01, SR-01, XT-01

  6. 06

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · global mandate in 2027

  7. 07

    Global Report

    this series

    BASELINE ISSUED · 2027 annual edition

  8. 08

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first federation-wide correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the regional candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the regional candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 regional annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-NAM-2027-01 · Rivers, heat and grid Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
CLI-001 · emissionspublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
ENE-004 · gas exportsINI-NAM-ENE-02gas and grid resiliencePUBLIC
WAT-005 · Colorado reservoirsINI-NAM-WAT-03shared basinsPUBLIC
WAT-006 · Rio Grande deliveriesINI-NAM-WAT-03shared basinsPUBLIC
WAT-007 · US droughtINI-NAM-CLI-01compound summer graphPUBLIC
CLI-008 · wildfireINI-NAM-HLT-04heat, smoke and healthPUBLIC
BIO-011 · protected areasINI-NAM-BIO-01condition indicatorPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-NAM-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Reservoir levelsUS Bureau of ReclamationdailyWAT-005
Drought extentUS Drought MonitorweeklyWAT-007
Rio Grande deliveriesIBWCweeklyWAT-006
Population and outputWorld Bankannualprofile
Greenhouse gas inventoriesECCC, EPA, INECCannualCLI-001
Gas exportsUS Energy Information AdministrationmonthlyENE-004
Wildfire areaCIFFC and Natural Resources Canadadaily in seasonCLI-008

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • quarterly publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-NAM-001Reservoir levels, post-close, context only20NOT BOUNDWAT · ENEresearch question A-03
SIG-NAM-002Drought extent, post-close, context only26NOT BOUNDCLI · WATrisk object RSK-NAM-WAT-002
SIG-NAM-003Canadian fire seasons 2023 and 20252122CORROBORATEDCLI · HLTresearch question A-04

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 20POST-CLOSE, context only: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), Lower Colorado Basin daily reservoir levels (Lake Mead 1,038.93 ft and 6,904 thousand acre-feet; Lake Powell 3,532.42 ft and 5,982 thousand acre-feet on 1 November 2026; automatic reports not checked for errors). Reclamation, Boulder City. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 26POST-CLOSE, context only: National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA (eds.), U.S. Drought Monitor statistics for the contiguous United States, map valid 27 October to 2 November 2026 (D0 72.66%, D1 49.49%, D2 26.74%, D3 9.36%, D4 1.65%; cumulative). University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 21Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Forest fires: the 2023 season (more than 14.6 million hectares, more than 6,800 fires, more than 230,000 evacuations; typical year more than 2.1 million hectares). Government of Canada, Ottawa. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (ed.), 2025 national season statistics (more than 7.5 million hectares by mid-August, second-largest area in the federal record; taken from search summaries because the statistics page was refused). CIFFC, Winnipeg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In North America Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of North America’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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