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North America’s risk travels through shared rivers, grids and pipelines

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It assesses no authority and ranks no member country.

8 min read2 figures2 tables16 notesNR-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1North America’s risk travels through shared rivers, grids and pipelines
    1. 1.1 The questions this part answers
    2. 1.2 The argument
    3. 1.3 Twenty couplings between five systems
    4. 1.4 Reinforcing loops
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Dry, hot summer across the Colorado and Rio Grande basins and the southern grids
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

  • Where is North America’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
  • Which couplings carry shocks across member borders?
  • Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
  • What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

  • Narrative
  • Headline finding
  • Lead figure
  • Member system cards
  • Shared basins and grids
  • Hub list
  • Regional pathway
  • Twelve-domain reading
  • Sector screens
  • Dependency matrix
  • Risk objects
  • Capability ladder
  • Scenario
  • Three lenses
  • Portfolio

1.2The argument

The three members had 515.4 million residents in 2025: 341.8 million in the United States, 132.0 million in Mexico and 41.7 million in Canada1. Their combined output was about 34.9 trillion US dollars at current prices, of which the United States produced 30.8 trillion4. Mexico’s own intercensal survey counted a smaller population than the World Bank figure3. This baseline reads North America as a region whose members share basins, grids and supply routes, so that a shock in one reaches the others.

The forcing layer is visible in recent records. Canadian wildfires burnt more than 14.6 million hectares in 2023, forced more than 230,000 evacuations and, by mid-August 2025, had burnt more than 7.5 million hectares again2122. The extent of drought in the United States at the close is not bound.

The water layer is the clearest shared coupling. Reservoir levels at the close are not bound. The Bureau of Reclamation issued its record of decision for post-2026 operations on 21 August 2026, because the 2007 guidelines and the 2019 drought plans are due to expire at the end of 202619. A 1944 treaty ties Mexico and the United States together on the Rio Grande, and Mexico delivered 884,861 acre-feet in the cycle that ended on 24 October 2025 against a minimum of 1.75 million232435.

The energy layer is a trade system. United States pipelines exported 2.42 trillion cubic feet of gas to Mexico in 202525. Electricity mixes differ sharply: oil, gas and coal supplied 21.7% of Canadian, 57.6% of United States and 75.4% of Mexican electricity5.

The health and food layers rest on different demographic bases. Canada and the United States have older populations than Mexico9. The United States grew 455.0 Mt of cereals in 2024, against 63.7 Mt in Canada and 32.6 Mt in Mexico10.

This edition therefore reads North America’s risk as a property of the couplings between these forces. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask two questions: where does a shock travel next across a border, and who holds the capability to stop it?

Figure 1.1How do electricity mixes differ? Share of electricity production, 2025 (%)

Hydropower supplied 54.0% and nuclear power 13.2% of Canadian electricity in 2025, while oil, gas and coal supplied 75.4% of Mexican and 57.6% of United States electricity5. The United States figure for 2023 on the national basis shows renewables at 21.4% and gas at 43.1%17.

ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Canada, hydro54
Canada, nuclear13.2
Mexico, oil, gas and coal75.4
United States, oil, gas and coal57.6

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2025.

Figure ID FIG-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-01-003

54.0%

Canadian hydropower share, 20255

75.4%

Mexican oil, gas and coal share, 20255

57.6%

United States oil, gas and coal share, 20255

100g CO₂e/kWh

Canadian grid intensity, 202218

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The North America matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, toWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT Water·STRONG
hydro · thermal cooling		STRONG
irrigation · rain-fed yield		STRONG
safe water · sanitation		STRONG
flows · wetlands
ENE EnergyMODERATE
pumping · desalination		·STRONG
fuel · fertiliser · cold chain		STRONG
air pollution · cooling		MODERATE
land use · mining
FOO FoodSTRONG
≈70% of withdrawals		WEAK
bioenergy feedstock		·STRONG
nutrition · food safety		STRONG
land conversion
HLT HealthWEAK
workforce		WEAK
workforce		MODERATE
labour · disease		·WEAK
residues
BIO BiodiversitySTRONG
regulation · filtration		MODERATE
biomass · hydrology		STRONG
pollination · soils		MODERATE
zoonoses · medicines		·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

  1. 01

    CLI → WAT → ENE

    Low reservoir levels and low flow limit hydropower and cooling water and raise power stress.

    Inferred Colorado River decision record19; no event bound

  2. 02

    CLI → CLI

    Fire and smoke follow drought and heat across the border.

    Reported Canadian fire 202321

  3. 03

    TRD → ENE → FIN

    A gas or trade rule change reaches power prices and public budgets.

    Inferred gas exports 202525; trade review28; no event bound

  4. 04

    WAT → FOO

    Treaty deliveries and drought reach irrigation and crops.

    Inferred Mexican deliveries24; cereals10

  5. 05

    CLI → INF → FIN

    Fire or storm damage hits lifelines and the loss falls on insurers and budgets.

    Inferred loss series not bound

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Table 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
LoopFirst directionSecond direction
WAT and FOOWater to food: irrigation · rain-fed yieldFood to water: ≈70% of withdrawals
WAT and BIOWater to biodiversity: flows · wetlandsBiodiversity to water: regulation · filtration
FOO and BIOFood to biodiversity: land conversionBiodiversity to food: pollination · soils
A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Canada, Mexico and United States, retrieved through the World Bank indicators interface (last updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 4DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), Canada, Mexico and United States (last updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 3UNVERIFIED, not opened: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Encuesta Intercensal 2025 (130,911,314 inhabitants at 15 October 2025, from search summaries; the page opened showed only its title). INEGI, Aguascalientes. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 21Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Forest fires: the 2023 season (more than 14.6 million hectares, more than 6,800 fires, more than 230,000 evacuations; typical year more than 2.1 million hectares). Government of Canada, Ottawa. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (ed.), 2025 national season statistics (more than 7.5 million hectares by mid-August, second-largest area in the federal record; taken from search summaries because the statistics page was refused). CIFFC, Winnipeg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 19U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), Post-2026 Colorado River reservoir operations (page updated 3 September 2026: draft EIS 9 January 2026, final EIS 31 July 2026, record of decision 21 August 2026, 2007 interim guidelines and 2019 drought contingency plans expiring at the end of 2026). Reclamation, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 23International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), Mexico deliveries of Rio Grande water (page opened states the 350,000 acre-feet a year minimum, 1,750,000 acre-feet per five-year cycle and a cycle start of 25 October 2020; delivery graphs not readable). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), release on the cycle of 25 October 2020 to 24 October 2025 (884,861 acre-feet delivered, from search summaries). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Mexico and the United States (eds.), Treaty on the utilisation of waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande, 1944 (taken from memory). Treaty text, 1944. Observation year 1944. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 25U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), U.S. natural gas pipeline exports by country (Mexico 2,422,839 and Canada 1,033,487 million cubic feet in 2025). EIA, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: electricity production from oil, gas and coal, nuclear and hydroelectric sources, share of total (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.NUCL.ZS, EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population aged 65 and above, share of total (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), and life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: cereal production, metric tons (AG.PRD.CREL.MT), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 17U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), What is U.S. electricity generation by energy source? (2023: renewables 21.4%, nuclear 18.6%, natural gas 43.1%, coal 16.2% of about 4,178 billion kWh; page updated 29 February 2024). EIA, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 18Canada Energy Regulator (ed.), Provincial and territorial energy profiles: Canada (hydro 60% of 625.7 TWh in 2021, wind and solar 7%, grid intensity from 220 to 100 g CO2e per kWh between 2005 and 2022). CER, Calgary. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: IISD and White & Case (eds.), analyses of the first joint review of the regional trade agreement on 1 July 2026 (no extension agreed, annual reviews, agreement in force to 1 July 2036; both pages refused, taken from search summaries). IISD, Winnipeg; White & Case, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 1: North America’s risk travels through shared rivers, grids and pipelines. In North America Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of North America’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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