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Systems and sectors at baseline

7 min read0 figures2 tables20 notesNR-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1North America’s risk travels through shared rivers, grids and pipelines
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Dry, hot summer across the Colorado and Rio Grande basins and the southern grids
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

Freshwater withdrawal as a share of available resources, 2022

44.9%

Mexico. The United States stands at 28.2% and Canada at 3.7%.

Reported2022World Bank8

ENE · Energy

US pipeline gas exports to Mexico

2.42trillion ft³

Exports to Canada were 1.03 trillion cubic feet.

Reported2025EIA25

FOO · Food

Cereal production, United States

455.0Mt

Canada 63.7 Mt and Mexico 32.6 Mt.

Reported2024World Bank10

HLT · Health

Share of population aged 65 or over, Canada

20.3%

United States 18.4%, Mexico 8.5%.

Reported2025World Bank9

BIO · Biodiversity

Marine area protected, Mexico

22.6%

United States 19.0%, Canada 9.2%. Terrestrial protection is 12.9% in Canada and the United States and 15.3% in Mexico.

Reported2025World Bank7

SYS · Cross-system

Mexican Rio Grande deliveries, cycle ended 24 October 2025

884,861acre-feet

The treaty minimum is 1.75 million acre-feet per cycle.

Reported2025IBWC24

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The reading states where the regional evidence points; the coupling column names the dependency that carries risk across systems and borders.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATShared rivers; Colorado River decision record of 21 August 202619; Mexican freshwater withdrawal 44.9% of resources in 20228.WAT → ENE · WAT → FOOReported EQL 5
ENEHydropower 54.0% of Canadian electricity; US gas exports to Mexico 2.42 trillion cubic feet in 2025525.ENE → allReported EQL 4
FOOCereal output 455.0 Mt in the United States in 202410. Trade flows not bound.FOO ← WAT, CLIReported EQL 3
HLTPopulation aged 65 or over: 20.3% Canada, 18.4% United States, 8.5% Mexico9. Heat deaths not bound.HLT ← CLI, ENEReported EQL 3
BIOTerrestrial protection 12.9% to 15.3% across members in 20257. Condition not bound.BIO ↔ WAT, FOOReported EQL 3
CLIWildfire area of 14.6 million hectares in Canada in 2023; drought extent at the close not bound.forcing on all systemsReported EQL 5
INFCross-border transmission and pipelines tie members together; flow series not bound2530.INF → allNot bound EQL 1
FINInsured and uninsured disaster losses not bound3133.FIN ← CLINot bound EQL 1
DATDigital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution30.DAT → ENE, FINExpert input EQL 2
AICData-centre and compute demand on grids and water not bound.AIC → ENE, WATNot bound EQL 1
MINMineral and fuel trade not bound at baseline.MIN ← TRDNot bound EQL 1
TRDThe regional trade agreement moved to annual reviews in 2026, and cross-border gas trade is large252834.TRD → allInferred EQL 3

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen global sectors are screened on the same grammar as every national edition, so later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemcompound drought, heat and grid stressdry, hot summer across member bordersPARTIAL
GS-01WaterColorado River decision record19; withdrawal shares8low supply on shared basinsGOOD
GS-02Energyelectricity mixes and gas exports525gas supply; cross-border flowsPARTIAL
GS-03Foodcereal output in 202410drought and heat; tradeTHIN
GS-04Healthage structure and life expectancy9heat and smoke load on servicesTHIN
GS-05Financeloss series not bound3133protection gapTHIN
GS-06Developmentoutput at current prices4trade exposure13PARTIAL
GS-07Climatenational inventories141629fire, drought and heatPARTIAL
GS-08Disasterwildfire record of 202321compound and sequential eventsPARTIAL
GS-09Infrastructurereliability outlook not bound30grid and pipeline interdependenceTHIN
GS-10Citiesnot read at regional levelurban heat and water supplyTHIN
GS-11Biodiversityprotected areas7condition not boundPARTIAL
GS-12Earth observationdrought monitoring and reservoir records published; none bound at the closecontinuity of recordsGOOD
GS-13Cyber and digitaldependencies not mappedsystemic outagesTHIN
GS-14Policytrade agreement review, Colorado River decision192834coordination across levelsPARTIAL
GS-15Sciencepeer-reviewed compound-event record42translation to membersPARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: level of water stress, freshwater withdrawal as a share of available resources (ER.H2O.FWST.ZS), and renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 25U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), U.S. natural gas pipeline exports by country (Mexico 2,422,839 and Canada 1,033,487 million cubic feet in 2025). EIA, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: cereal production, metric tons (AG.PRD.CREL.MT), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population aged 65 and above, share of total (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), and life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial protected areas, share of land area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), and marine protected areas, share of territorial waters (ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), release on the cycle of 25 October 2020 to 24 October 2025 (884,861 acre-feet delivered, from search summaries). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 19U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), Post-2026 Colorado River reservoir operations (page updated 3 September 2026: draft EIS 9 January 2026, final EIS 31 July 2026, record of decision 21 August 2026, 2007 interim guidelines and 2019 drought contingency plans expiring at the end of 2026). Reclamation, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: electricity production from oil, gas and coal, nuclear and hydroelectric sources, share of total (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.NUCL.ZS, EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: North American Electric Reliability Corporation (ed.), Long-term reliability assessment (the page opened gave only a headline fragment about regions at elevated risk). NERC, Atlanta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 31NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (ed.), U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters (page opened returned no figures). NOAA NCEI, Asheville. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Insurance Bureau of Canada (ed.), insured catastrophe losses (the page requested returned not found). IBC, Toronto. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: IISD and White & Case (eds.), analyses of the first joint review of the regional trade agreement on 1 July 2026 (no extension agreed, annual reviews, agreement in force to 1 July 2036; both pages refused, taken from search summaries). IISD, Winnipeg; White & Case, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Canada, Mexico and the United States (eds.), Agreement between the United States of America, the United Mexican States and Canada (entered into force 1 July 2020; taken from memory). Official texts, 2020. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 4DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), Canada, Mexico and United States (last updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: exports of goods and services, share of GDP (NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS), Canada 31.3% and Mexico 39.6% in 2025, United States 11.0% in 2024. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 14Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions (Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators): 685 Mt CO2 eq in 2024, 10.3% below 2005 and 0.3% below 2023. Government of Canada, Gatineau. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 16United States Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Inventory of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and sinks (page opened reports 1990 to 2022: gross 6,343 and net 5,489 million metric tons CO2e, net 17% below 2005). EPA, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 29Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático (ed.), Inventario nacional de emisiones de gases y compuestos de efecto invernadero (page opened reports the 2015 inventory, 683 Mt CO2e, and is dated May 2018). INECC, Mexico City. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 21Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Forest fires: the 2023 season (more than 14.6 million hectares, more than 6,800 fires, more than 230,000 evacuations; typical year more than 2.1 million hectares). Government of Canada, Ottawa. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In North America Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of North America’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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