- North America 2026
- Chapter 6
Readings from the other desks
The regional baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1North America’s risk travels through shared rivers, grids and pipelines
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Dry, hot summer across the Colorado and Rio Grande basins and the southern grids
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 6.1 The other desks’ editions of this subject
- 6.2 Three lenses
- 6.3 Standards, Academy and steward contributions
- 6.4 GCRI reading: the model card
- 6.5 Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
- 6.6 Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 regional readiness pack
- 6.7 Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
- 6.8 Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review: science and assessments
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject
Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRF Public Deliberation | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Standards Progress | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Academy Capability | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Index Measurement | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle |
6.2Three lenses
One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports a coupled reading of North American risk: drought, heat and fire act on water, energy and health together. Evidence is strongest for population, the electricity mix and reservoir levels, and weakest for losses, cross-border flows and the condition of nature.
CLI-001 · WAT-005 · ENE-004 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people risk arrives as a smoke day, a water restriction or a price change. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how shared rivers and pipelines make one member’s event another member’s problem.
CLI-008 · WAT-006 · ENE-004
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Insured and uninsured loss series by member are not bound, and trade rules are under annual review28. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an endorsement.
CLI-008 · SYS-012
NEXUS
Synthesis
The region publishes strong statistics on emissions, reservoirs and drought. The 2027 programme should bind loss, gas-flow and cross-border grid data, test the dry summer, and measure the condition of nature.
SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02
6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions
How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for North America. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.
| Quarter | Edition | Question | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | State and Agenda | What matters this year, and what is the starting position? | observed baseline stays distinct from planned work |
| Q2 | Evidence and Build | What new evidence and capability have been developed? | a configured capability is not a validated result |
| Q3 | Stress Test and Readiness | What do scenarios and tests reveal? | simulated loss or performance is not observed impact |
| Q4 | Annual Synthesis and Renewal | What did the year establish, and what changes next? | release follows review, not event publicity deadlines |
| Steward or body | Role | Contribution route |
|---|---|---|
| The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada) | Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T) | science and practice communities · GCRI gateway |
| The Global Risks Forum (GRF) | leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M) | policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway |
| The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) | finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F) | finance and insurance · GRA gateway |
| Nexus Standards | preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods | Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI |
| Risk Academy | learning pathways tied to the agenda questions | Academy gateway · learning by review |
| North America regional pathway | regional pathway: hubs named in the registry | regional Commons room |
Standards drafts used in this edition
- Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
- Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
- Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech
Standards calendar to watch
- Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
- Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
- Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition
6.4GCRI reading: the model card
GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology
6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.
Rivers, pipelines and smoke do not stop at a frontier. The baseline treats the shared basin and the shared grid as the units of analysis, with member countries as the places where the effects land.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01
Risk crosses the border first
The regional trade agreement connects the three members but is not a subject in the series registry. This edition reads North America as three member countries named in the registry and cites the agreement only as context. Nothing is joined on a code alone.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02
A trade agreement is not a region
Gas flows south and hydropower flows within Canada. Security depends on diversity of routes and on control of the grid, not on volume alone.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03
Supply security is a design question
Several data that matter most for risk, including cross-border flows, new-cycle treaty deliveries and losses by member, could not be read at evidence close. The edition shows each gap and the source that would fill it.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04
Gaps are findings too
6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 regional readiness pack
The registers that open the 2027 regional cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.
| Item | Register | State at baseline | First 2027 entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | Regional risk state delta | baseline set by this edition | changes against the baseline |
| E2 | WEFH+B state delta | five regional system readings set | indicator updates and freshness |
| E3 | Agenda and Portfolio movement | eight agenda items · 7 proposed objects | admission decisions |
| E4 | Federation delivery register | editions in programme as listed in the series registry | regional and sector baselines |
| E5 | Consortium capability register | national consortia forming | first contributions |
| E6 | Leadership questions and challenges | none yet | first challenge log |
| E7 | Foundry technical state | national environments prepared | first federation cut |
| E8 | Publication candidates | twelve findings carried forward | PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions |
| E9 | Universe readiness | one candidate mission | admission and role spine |
| E10 | Correction register | none | first federation-wide cycle |
Publication dispositions
- Publish
- Hold
- Needs evidence
- Restricted
- Superseded
6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.
- IN FORCE
- ADOPTED
- SUBMITTED
- UNDER REVIEW
- PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
| Instrument | Body | Scope | Status | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boundary Waters Treaty (1909)36 | Canada and United States | CAN · USA | IN FORCE | shared waters and the IJC |
| Treaty on utilisation of waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande (1944)35 | Mexico and United States | MEX · USA | IN FORCE | treaty deliveries |
| Colorado River post-2026 record of decision19 | US Bureau of Reclamation | USA basin | ISSUED 21 AUG 2026 | reservoir operations |
| Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement37 | Canada and United States | CAN · USA | IN FORCE | lake water quality |
| Columbia River Treaty38 | Canada and United States | CAN · USA | IN FORCE | hydropower and flood control |
| IBWC Minute 32339 | Mexico and United States | MEX · USA | IN FORCE | Colorado River arrangements |
| Agreement between the United States of America, the United Mexican States and Canada34 | the three governments | CAN · USA · MEX | IN FORCE · ANNUAL REVIEWS | trade |
| Paris Agreement50 | UNFCCC | international | IN FORCE | mitigation |
| Sendai Framework 2015–203043 | UNDRR | international | ADOPTED 2015 | disaster risk reduction |
| Kunming-Montreal Framework44 | CBD | international | ADOPTED 2022 | 30by30 |
Changed since 2024
6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review: science and assessments
The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, regional and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.
Review protocol
- Question
- What does the published evidence establish about North America’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks across its member countries?
- Sources searched
- peer-reviewed literature; regional and international assessments; official releases; statutory instruments
- Window
- releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
- Selection
- sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
- Next step
- systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027
| Reference | Type | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee and Romero (eds.)40 | assessment | 2023 | context | forcing |
| McElwee et al. (eds.)41 | assessment | 2024 | framework | nexus interlinkages |
| Zscheischler et al.42 | journal article | 2018 | framework | compound events |
| Sendai Framework43 | framework | 2015 | context | disaster risk |
| Paris Agreement50 | treaty | 2015 | context | mitigation |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado River post-2026 operations19 | US Bureau of Reclamation | 2026 | supports | water decisions |
| Reservoir records (post-close, context only)20 | US Bureau of Reclamation | 2026 | context | reservoir levels |
| Drought Monitor statistics (post-close, context only)26 | US Drought Monitor | 2026 | context | drought extent |
| Wildfire record2122 | Natural Resources Canada, CIFFC | 2025 | supports | fire |
| Gas Market Report45 | IEA | 2026 | context | gas supply |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population123 | World Bank and national statistics offices | 2025 | supports | profile |
| Electricity mix51718 | World Bank, EIA, CER | 2025 | supports | power mix |
| Greenhouse gas emissions6141629 | World Bank and national agencies | 2024 | supports | climate |
| Gas exports25 | EIA | 2025 | supports | supply |
| Ageing and food910 | World Bank | 2025 | supports | health and food |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renewable capacity statistics46 | IRENA | 2026 | context | capacity |
| Reliability assessments30 | NERC | 2026 | context | grid |
| Treaty deliveries2324 | IBWC | 2025 | context | shared basins |
| Disaster loss data3133 | NOAA, IBC | 2025 | context | losses |
| Drought monitor, Mexico32 | CONAGUA | 2026 | context | drought |
Where the evidence agrees
Where it is unsettled
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: IISD and White & Case (eds.), analyses of the first joint review of the regional trade agreement on 1 July 2026 (no extension agreed, annual reviews, agreement in force to 1 July 2036; both pages refused, taken from search summaries). IISD, Winnipeg; White & Case, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of the United States and Great Britain for Canada (eds.), Boundary Waters Treaty, 1909 (taken from memory; the commission page opened confirms the year). Treaty text, 1909. Observation year 1909. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Mexico and the United States (eds.), Treaty on the utilisation of waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande, 1944 (taken from memory). Treaty text, 1944. Observation year 1944. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), Post-2026 Colorado River reservoir operations (page updated 3 September 2026: draft EIS 9 January 2026, final EIS 31 July 2026, record of decision 21 August 2026, 2007 interim guidelines and 2019 drought contingency plans expiring at the end of 2026). Reclamation, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Canada and the United States (eds.), Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (taken from memory). IJC, Windsor. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Canada and the United States (eds.), Columbia River Treaty (taken from memory; the ministry page opened was not found). Treaty text, 1961. Observation year 1961. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), Minute 323 on Colorado River arrangements (taken from memory). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Canada, Mexico and the United States (eds.), Agreement between the United States of America, the United Mexican States and Canada (entered into force 1 July 2020; taken from memory). Official texts, 2020. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations (ed.), Paris Agreement under the UNFCCC (taken from memory). UNFCCC, Bonn, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), Mexico deliveries of Rio Grande water (page opened states the 350,000 acre-feet a year minimum, 1,750,000 acre-feet per five-year cycle and a cycle start of 25 October 2020; delivery graphs not readable). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), release on the cycle of 25 October 2020 to 24 October 2025 (884,861 acre-feet delivered, from search summaries). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20POST-CLOSE, context only: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), Lower Colorado Basin daily reservoir levels (Lake Mead 1,038.93 ft and 6,904 thousand acre-feet; Lake Powell 3,532.42 ft and 5,982 thousand acre-feet on 1 November 2026; automatic reports not checked for errors). Reclamation, Boulder City. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26POST-CLOSE, context only: National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA (eds.), U.S. Drought Monitor statistics for the contiguous United States, map valid 27 October to 2 November 2026 (D0 72.66%, D1 49.49%, D2 26.74%, D3 9.36%, D4 1.65%; cumulative). University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 21Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Forest fires: the 2023 season (more than 14.6 million hectares, more than 6,800 fires, more than 230,000 evacuations; typical year more than 2.1 million hectares). Government of Canada, Ottawa. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (ed.), 2025 national season statistics (more than 7.5 million hectares by mid-August, second-largest area in the federal record; taken from search summaries because the statistics page was refused). CIFFC, Winnipeg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Gas Market Report (latest quarterly edition at evidence close). IEA, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Canada, Mexico and United States, retrieved through the World Bank indicators interface (last updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2Statistics Canada (ed.), Population and demography, quarterly population estimate (page shows 41,798,407 for 1 July 2026 but was last modified 1 May 2026; figure not used). Statistics Canada, Ottawa. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3UNVERIFIED, not opened: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Encuesta Intercensal 2025 (130,911,314 inhabitants at 15 October 2025, from search summaries; the page opened showed only its title). INEGI, Aguascalientes. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: electricity production from oil, gas and coal, nuclear and hydroelectric sources, share of total (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.NUCL.ZS, EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), What is U.S. electricity generation by energy source? (2023: renewables 21.4%, nuclear 18.6%, natural gas 43.1%, coal 16.2% of about 4,178 billion kWh; page updated 29 February 2024). EIA, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18Canada Energy Regulator (ed.), Provincial and territorial energy profiles: Canada (hydro 60% of 625.7 TWh in 2021, wind and solar 7%, grid intensity from 220 to 100 g CO2e per kWh between 2005 and 2022). CER, Calgary. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions (Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators): 685 Mt CO2 eq in 2024, 10.3% below 2005 and 0.3% below 2023. Government of Canada, Gatineau. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16United States Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Inventory of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and sinks (page opened reports 1990 to 2022: gross 6,343 and net 5,489 million metric tons CO2e, net 17% below 2005). EPA, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 29Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático (ed.), Inventario nacional de emisiones de gases y compuestos de efecto invernadero (page opened reports the 2015 inventory, 683 Mt CO2e, and is dated May 2018). INECC, Mexico City. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), U.S. natural gas pipeline exports by country (Mexico 2,422,839 and Canada 1,033,487 million cubic feet in 2025). EIA, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population aged 65 and above, share of total (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), and life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: cereal production, metric tons (AG.PRD.CREL.MT), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: North American Electric Reliability Corporation (ed.), Long-term reliability assessment (the page opened gave only a headline fragment about regions at elevated risk). NERC, Atlanta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 31NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (ed.), U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters (page opened returned no figures). NOAA NCEI, Asheville. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Insurance Bureau of Canada (ed.), insured catastrophe losses (the page requested returned not found). IBC, Toronto. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, Comisión Nacional del Agua (eds.), Monitor de Sequía en México (page opened; percentage of territory shown only in a chart; issued every two weeks since February 2014). CONAGUA, Mexico City. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 27International Joint Commission (ed.), Mission: prevents and resolves disputes between Canada and the United States under the Boundary Waters Treaty of 1909; three commissioners from each country. IJC, Ottawa and Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back