Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

5 min read1 figure0 tables14 notesNR-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1North America’s risk travels through shared rivers, grids and pipelines
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Energy
    4. 2.4 Water
    5. 2.5 Food
    6. 2.6 Health
    7. 2.7 Biodiversity
    8. 2.8 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Dry, hot summer across the Colorado and Rio Grande basins and the southern grids
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006

Mexico delivered 884,861 acre-feet of Rio Grande water in the cycle that ended on 24 October 2025, against a treaty minimum of 1.75 million acre-feet per cycle.

Figure 2.1Rio Grande deliveries, cycle ended 24 October 2025 (acre-feet)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Delivered by Mexico884,861
Treaty minimum1,750,000

Source: International Boundary and Water Commission release on the cycle of 25 October 2020 to 24 October 202524, and the 1944 treaty terms35. The delivery figure was not read from the issuer.

Implication

Mexico’s deliveries follow from the 1944 treaty and from conditions in the shared basin. A shortfall against the minimum matters on both sides of the border for farms and cities that rely on the river232435.

What would move it

Deliveries under the new cycle, the first operating decisions under the post-2026 Colorado River framework19 and any change to the international terms would each move this finding. Deliveries in the new cycle are not bound23.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions were 685 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 10.3% below 2005 and 0.3% below 2023; the United States reported 5,489 Mt net for 2022, 17% below 2005.1416

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

    On one World Bank basis excluding land use, the three members emitted 7,367 Mt CO₂e in 2024: the United States 5,913 Mt, Canada 768 Mt and Mexico 687 Mt.6

  3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-CLI-008

    Canadian wildfires burnt more than 14.6 million hectares in 2023 and forced more than 230,000 evacuations; by mid-August 2025 more than 7.5 million hectares had burnt.2122

2.3Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

    In 2025 oil, gas and coal supplied 21.7% of Canadian, 57.6% of United States and 75.4% of Mexican electricity; hydropower supplied 54.0% in Canada.5

  2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

    United States pipelines exported 2.42 trillion cubic feet of gas to Mexico and 1.03 trillion cubic feet to Canada in 2025.25

2.4Water

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

    The Bureau of Reclamation issued its post-2026 record of decision on 21 August 2026 for operations from 2027. Reservoir levels at 30 September 2026 are not bound.19

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006

    Mexico delivered 884,861 acre-feet of water in the Rio Grande cycle that ended on 24 October 2025, against a treaty minimum of 1.75 million acre-feet per cycle.232435

  3. Not boundEQL 1NRF-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007

    The extent of drought in the contiguous United States at 30 September 2026 is not bound. The drought map opened is dated after the close. not bound

2.5Food

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009

    Cereal production in 2024 was 455.0 Mt in the United States, 63.7 Mt in Canada and 32.6 Mt in Mexico.10

2.6Health

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-HLT-010

    In 2025, 20.3% of Canadians, 18.4% of Americans and 8.5% of Mexicans were aged 65 or over; life expectancy in 2024 was 82.1, 78.9 and 75.3 years.9

2.7Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011

    In 2025 terrestrial protected areas covered 12.9% of Canada, 12.9% of the United States and 15.3% of Mexico; marine protection covered 9.2%, 19.0% and 22.6% of territorial waters.7

2.8Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a dry, hot summer in which low Colorado and Rio Grande supply, heat load and grid stress coincide across member borders. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), release on the cycle of 25 October 2020 to 24 October 2025 (884,861 acre-feet delivered, from search summaries). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Mexico and the United States (eds.), Treaty on the utilisation of waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande, 1944 (taken from memory). Treaty text, 1944. Observation year 1944. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 23International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), Mexico deliveries of Rio Grande water (page opened states the 350,000 acre-feet a year minimum, 1,750,000 acre-feet per five-year cycle and a cycle start of 25 October 2020; delivery graphs not readable). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 19U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), Post-2026 Colorado River reservoir operations (page updated 3 September 2026: draft EIS 9 January 2026, final EIS 31 July 2026, record of decision 21 August 2026, 2007 interim guidelines and 2019 drought contingency plans expiring at the end of 2026). Reclamation, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 14Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions (Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators): 685 Mt CO2 eq in 2024, 10.3% below 2005 and 0.3% below 2023. Government of Canada, Gatineau. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 16United States Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Inventory of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and sinks (page opened reports 1990 to 2022: gross 6,343 and net 5,489 million metric tons CO2e, net 17% below 2005). EPA, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 21Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Forest fires: the 2023 season (more than 14.6 million hectares, more than 6,800 fires, more than 230,000 evacuations; typical year more than 2.1 million hectares). Government of Canada, Ottawa. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (ed.), 2025 national season statistics (more than 7.5 million hectares by mid-August, second-largest area in the federal record; taken from search summaries because the statistics page was refused). CIFFC, Winnipeg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: electricity production from oil, gas and coal, nuclear and hydroelectric sources, share of total (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.NUCL.ZS, EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 25U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), U.S. natural gas pipeline exports by country (Mexico 2,422,839 and Canada 1,033,487 million cubic feet in 2025). EIA, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: cereal production, metric tons (AG.PRD.CREL.MT), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population aged 65 and above, share of total (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), and life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial protected areas, share of land area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), and marine protected areas, share of territorial waters (ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In North America Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of North America’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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