- North America 2026
- Annex A
Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1North America’s risk travels through shared rivers, grids and pipelines
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Dry, hot summer across the Colorado and Rio Grande basins and the southern grids
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
A.1Methods
The regional baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | United States share of three-member emissions excluding land use, 2024 | 5,912.618 ÷ 7,367.456 | 80.3% |
| (2) | United States share of three-member output at current prices, 2025 | 30.770 ÷ 34.922 | 88.1% |
| (3) | Share of United States pipeline gas exports to the two neighbours that went to Mexico, 2025 | 2,422,839 ÷ 3,456,326 | 70.1% |
| (4) | Mexican deliveries as a share of the treaty minimum for the cycle that ended on 24 October 2025 | 884,861 ÷ 1,750,000 | 50.6% |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at regional scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card: Regional System Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-NAM-REGIONAL · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent North America as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems across member countries, with forcing and transmission layers
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- regional scale; not for national, basin or asset-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
20couplings
typed in v0
11strong
documented within one season
5moderate
documented, buffered
4weak
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The regional baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.
- Cut ID
- NQ-REG-NAM-2026-Q0-1
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 50 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- NQ-REG-NAM-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | 2027 regional annual |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited publications, pinned by edition | national, regional and sector cuts through one graph |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | Regional System Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to federation evidence |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (World Bank) | 2025 | Oct 2026 | annual | annual |
| Electricity mix (World Bank) | 2025 | Oct 2026 | annual | annual |
| Canadian emissions | 2024 | 2026 | annual | annual |
| US emissions page | 2022 | not recorded | annual | next inventory |
| Mexican emissions page | 2015 | May 2018 | irregular | not scheduled |
| US gas exports | 2025 | not recorded | annual | annual |
| Reservoir levels (post-close, context only) | 1 Nov 2026 | Nov 2026 | daily | daily |
| Decision record page | 21 Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | event | event |
| US drought statistics | week to 2 Nov 2026 | Nov 2026 | weekly | weekly |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Climate and hazards | PARTIAL | US and Mexican emissions after 2022; losses |
| Energy | PARTIAL | cross-border flows; gas storage |
| Water | PARTIAL | Mexican drought share; new-cycle deliveries |
| Food | THIN | trade flows; food access |
| Health | THIN | heat and smoke deaths |
| Biodiversity | THIN | habitat condition |
| Finance | THIN | insured and uninsured losses |
| Digital | THIN | dependency mapping |
| Field | Source that would fill it | Blocker |
|---|---|---|
| United States greenhouse gas inventory for 2023 and 2024 | US Environmental Protection Agency inventory of greenhouse gas emissions and sinks16 | the page opened reports 2022 data (gross 6,343 and net 5,489 Mt); a later inventory could not be read |
| Mexican national greenhouse gas inventory after 2015 | Mexican National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change inventory29 | the page opened reports the 2015 inventory (683 Mt) and is dated 2018; a later edition was not found |
| Canadian wildfire area burned and people evacuated in 2025, final | Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre and the National Forestry Database22 | the statistics page was refused; only a mid-August figure was seen in search summaries |
| Mexican deliveries of Rio Grande water in the cycle that began on 25 October 2025 | International Boundary and Water Commission weekly data sheet23 | the figures sit in linked graphs that could not be read as text |
| Insured and uninsured catastrophe losses in Canada and the United States | Insurance Bureau of Canada33 and NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information31 | the Canadian page was not found; the NOAA page returned no figures |
| Share of Mexican territory in drought | Mexican National Meteorological Service drought monitor32 | the percentage is shown only in a chart that could not be read as text |
| Cross-border electricity flows between Canada and the United States, and between the United States and Mexico | Canada Energy Regulator, US Energy Information Administration and the Mexican grid operator1825 | the regulator page was not found and no flow series was retrieved |
| Electricity generation shares on one national basis for 2025 | US Energy Information Administration17 and Canada Energy Regulator18 | the opened pages give 2023 for the United States and 2021 for Canada; the World Bank 2025 shares are used for comparison |
| Mexican population on one basis | Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography intercensal survey3 | the survey page returned only its title; the World Bank figure (131.9 million) is above the survey count of 130.9 million seen in search summaries |
| Canadian population from the national statistics office for 1 July 2026 | Statistics Canada population estimates2 | the page shows 41,798,407 but was last modified before the reference date; not used |
| Heat-related deaths by member | public health agencies and peer-reviewed estimates | no series retrieved |
| Grid reliability outlook by interconnection | North American Electric Reliability Corporation assessment30 | the page opened gave no assessment text |
| Status of Columbia River and Great Lakes water arrangements | treaty bodies and foreign ministries3738 | the ministry page was not found; no current status read |
| Capability rungs: early warning, reserves, response, recovery, social protection, infrastructure, workforce | civil protection, weather services, utilities and ministries of the three members | not reviewed by evidence close |
A.5Evidence cards: two anchor sources
Issued by the World Bank. Annual. Role: binds population, output, electricity mix, emissions, water stress, protected-area, cereal and ageing figures on one basis for all three members. Series are harmonised and can differ from national releases.
EVD-NAM-001
World Development Indicators1
Issued by the US Bureau of Reclamation. Daily and event-based. Role: binds the Colorado River findings. Automatic daily records are not checked for errors by the issuer.
EVD-NAM-002
Reservoir records and decision page19
| Dimension | EVD-NAM-001 | EVD-NAM-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | three members on one basis | Colorado basin reservoirs only |
| Timeliness | about 10 months after the reference year | same day |
| Revision | series revised by the issuer | daily records may be revised |
| Method transparency | published methodology | published methodology |
| External validation | not assessed in this edition | not assessed in this edition |
Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027
- US and Mexican greenhouse gas inventories1629 : latest year on one basis
- Cross-border flow records1830 : gas and power flows
- IBWC weekly data sheet23 : new-cycle deliveries
- Reports Foundational Edition47 and the global baseline48 : method and peer distributions
- National baseline editions for Canada and the United States49 : member-level detail
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| CER | Canada Energy Regulator |
| CIFFC | Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre |
| CONAGUA | Comisión Nacional del Agua (National Water Commission, Mexico) |
| ECCC | Environment and Climate Change Canada |
| EIA | United States Energy Information Administration |
| EPA | United States Environmental Protection Agency |
| IBC | Insurance Bureau of Canada |
| IBWC | International Boundary and Water Commission |
| IJC | International Joint Commission |
| INECC | Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático (National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change, Mexico) |
| INEGI | Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (National Institute of Statistics and Geography, Mexico) |
| LULUCF | land use, land-use change and forestry |
| NERC | North American Electric Reliability Corporation |
| NOAA | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration |
| WMO | World Meteorological Organization |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the regional indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-NAM-DRY-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | 2027 |
| A.7 | Member-country notes | atlas cards for every member country | Q2 2027 |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition: emissions excluding land use
- Construct
- annual greenhouse gas emissions without land use, land-use change and forestry
- Unit
- Mt CO₂e
- Scope
- calendar year
- Source
- World Bank World Development Indicators total greenhouse gas emissions series6
- Revision
- revised by the issuer; not tracked here
- Known limits
- differs from national inventories, which follow their own reporting rules1416
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 16United States Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Inventory of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and sinks (page opened reports 1990 to 2022: gross 6,343 and net 5,489 million metric tons CO2e, net 17% below 2005). EPA, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 29Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático (ed.), Inventario nacional de emisiones de gases y compuestos de efecto invernadero (page opened reports the 2015 inventory, 683 Mt CO2e, and is dated May 2018). INECC, Mexico City. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (ed.), 2025 national season statistics (more than 7.5 million hectares by mid-August, second-largest area in the federal record; taken from search summaries because the statistics page was refused). CIFFC, Winnipeg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), Mexico deliveries of Rio Grande water (page opened states the 350,000 acre-feet a year minimum, 1,750,000 acre-feet per five-year cycle and a cycle start of 25 October 2020; delivery graphs not readable). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Insurance Bureau of Canada (ed.), insured catastrophe losses (the page requested returned not found). IBC, Toronto. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 31NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (ed.), U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters (page opened returned no figures). NOAA NCEI, Asheville. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, Comisión Nacional del Agua (eds.), Monitor de Sequía en México (page opened; percentage of territory shown only in a chart; issued every two weeks since February 2014). CONAGUA, Mexico City. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18Canada Energy Regulator (ed.), Provincial and territorial energy profiles: Canada (hydro 60% of 625.7 TWh in 2021, wind and solar 7%, grid intensity from 220 to 100 g CO2e per kWh between 2005 and 2022). CER, Calgary. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), U.S. natural gas pipeline exports by country (Mexico 2,422,839 and Canada 1,033,487 million cubic feet in 2025). EIA, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), What is U.S. electricity generation by energy source? (2023: renewables 21.4%, nuclear 18.6%, natural gas 43.1%, coal 16.2% of about 4,178 billion kWh; page updated 29 February 2024). EIA, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3UNVERIFIED, not opened: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Encuesta Intercensal 2025 (130,911,314 inhabitants at 15 October 2025, from search summaries; the page opened showed only its title). INEGI, Aguascalientes. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2Statistics Canada (ed.), Population and demography, quarterly population estimate (page shows 41,798,407 for 1 July 2026 but was last modified 1 May 2026; figure not used). Statistics Canada, Ottawa. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: North American Electric Reliability Corporation (ed.), Long-term reliability assessment (the page opened gave only a headline fragment about regions at elevated risk). NERC, Atlanta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Canada and the United States (eds.), Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (taken from memory). IJC, Windsor. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Canada and the United States (eds.), Columbia River Treaty (taken from memory; the ministry page opened was not found). Treaty text, 1961. Observation year 1961. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Canada, Mexico and United States, retrieved through the World Bank indicators interface (last updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), Post-2026 Colorado River reservoir operations (page updated 3 September 2026: draft EIS 9 January 2026, final EIS 31 July 2026, record of decision 21 August 2026, 2007 interim guidelines and 2019 drought contingency plans expiring at the end of 2026). Reclamation, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack used by the generator as the structural base; not read by the author of this spec). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Baseline Editions 2026 for Canada and the United States (draft packs; the Mexico edition is in preparation). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions (Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators): 685 Mt CO2 eq in 2024, 10.3% below 2005 and 0.3% below 2023. Government of Canada, Gatineau. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back