- South America 2026
- Chapter 6
Readings from the other desks
The regional baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1South America’s risk travels through shared rivers, grids and gas
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Basin drought across the Paraná corridor and the Amazon
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 6.1 The other desks’ editions of this subject
- 6.2 Three lenses
- 6.3 Standards, Academy and steward contributions
- 6.4 GCRI reading: the model card
- 6.5 Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
- 6.6 Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 regional readiness pack
- 6.7 Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
- 6.8 Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review: science and assessments
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject
Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRF Public Deliberation | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Standards Progress | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Academy Capability | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Index Measurement | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle |
6.2Three lenses
One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports a coupled reading of South American risk: drought, flood and heat act on water, energy and health together. Evidence is strongest for population, emissions and the electricity mix, and weakest for losses, river-flow series and the condition of nature.
CLI-001 · CLI-006 · WAT-008 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people risk arrives as a flood, a dry river or a dengue season. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how shared rivers and shared grids make one member’s event another’s problem.
CLI-006 · HLT-010 · ENE-003
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Insured and uninsured loss series are not bound. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an endorsement.
CLI-006 · SYS-012
NEXUS
Synthesis
The region publishes strong series on emissions, electricity and forest, and two national pledges. The 2027 programme should bind loss, river-flow and cross-border flow data, test the basin drought, and read deforestation at source.
SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02
6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions
How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for South America. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.
| Quarter | Edition | Question | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | State and Agenda | What matters this year, and what is the starting position? | observed baseline stays distinct from planned work |
| Q2 | Evidence and Build | What new evidence and capability have been developed? | a configured capability is not a validated result |
| Q3 | Stress Test and Readiness | What do scenarios and tests reveal? | simulated loss or performance is not observed impact |
| Q4 | Annual Synthesis and Renewal | What did the year establish, and what changes next? | release follows review, not event publicity deadlines |
| Steward or body | Role | Contribution route |
|---|---|---|
| The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada) | Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T) | science and practice communities · GCRI gateway |
| The Global Risks Forum (GRF) | leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M) | policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway |
| The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) | finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F) | finance and insurance · GRA gateway |
| Nexus Standards | preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods | Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI |
| Risk Academy | learning pathways tied to the agenda questions | Academy gateway · learning by review |
| South America regional pathway | regional pathway: hubs named in the registry | regional Commons room |
Standards drafts used in this edition
- Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
- Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
- Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech
Standards calendar to watch
- Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
- Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
- Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition
6.4GCRI reading: the model card
GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology
6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.
Floods, droughts and grid faults do not stop at a frontier. The baseline treats the shared basin, the shared aquifer and the cross-border link as the units of analysis, with member countries as the places where the effects land.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01
Risk crosses the border first
The registry names two members for South America. Other countries on the same rivers and aquifers appear as basin states, and no edition of theirs is claimed here. Totals for Latin America and the Caribbean are a reference aggregate and are not the region.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02
Two members are not a continent
A hydropower-heavy system and a gas export route point the same way: security depends on diversity of sources and on control of the links, not on volume alone.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03
Supply security is a design question
Several data that matter most for risk, including river-flow series, plant output and losses, could not be read at evidence close. The edition shows each gap and the source that would fill it.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04
Gaps are findings too
6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 regional readiness pack
The registers that open the 2027 regional cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.
| Item | Register | State at baseline | First 2027 entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | Regional risk state delta | baseline set by this edition | changes against the baseline |
| E2 | WEFH+B state delta | five regional system readings set | indicator updates and freshness |
| E3 | Agenda and Portfolio movement | eight agenda items · 7 proposed objects | admission decisions |
| E4 | Federation delivery register | editions in programme as listed in the series registry | regional and sector baselines |
| E5 | Consortium capability register | national consortia forming | first contributions |
| E6 | Leadership questions and challenges | none yet | first challenge log |
| E7 | Foundry technical state | national environments prepared | first federation cut |
| E8 | Publication candidates | twelve findings carried forward | PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions |
| E9 | Universe readiness | one candidate mission | admission and role spine |
| E10 | Correction register | none | first federation-wide cycle |
Publication dispositions
- Publish
- Hold
- Needs evidence
- Restricted
- Superseded
6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.
- IN FORCE
- ADOPTED
- SUBMITTED
- UNDER REVIEW
- PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
| Instrument | Body | Scope | Status | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Agreement31 | UNFCCC | international | IN FORCE | climate pledges |
| Sendai Framework 2015–203032 | UNDRR | international | ADOPTED 2015 | disaster risk reduction |
| Kunming-Montreal Framework33 | CBD | international | ADOPTED 2022 | 30by30 |
| Treaty of the River Plate Basin39 | basin states | Paraná–La Plata basin | SIGNED 1969 | shared rivers |
| Amazon Cooperation Treaty40 | basin states | Amazon basin | SIGNED 1978 | shared forest and rivers |
| Itaipú Treaty41 | Brazil and Paraguay | Paraná river | SIGNED 1973 | binational hydropower |
| Guarani Aquifer Agreement21 | aquifer states | Guarani aquifer | SIGNED 2010 | shared groundwater |
| National Policy on Climate Change, Lei 12.18742 | Brazil | Brazil | IN FORCE · amendments not checked | climate policy |
| Climate law, Ley 27.52044 | Argentina | Argentina | IN FORCE · amendment status not verified | climate policy |
| Native forests law, Ley 26.33145 | Argentina | Argentina | IN FORCE · amendment status not verified | forest protection |
Changed since 2024
6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review: science and assessments
The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, regional and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.
Review protocol
- Question
- What does the published evidence establish about South America’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks across its member countries?
- Sources searched
- peer-reviewed literature; regional and international assessments; official releases; statutory instruments
- Window
- releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
- Selection
- sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
- Next step
- systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027
| Reference | Type | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee and Romero (eds.)34 | assessment | 2023 | context | forcing |
| Castellanos et al.35 | assessment chapter | 2022 | context | Central and South America |
| McElwee et al. (eds.)36 | assessment | 2024 | framework | nexus interlinkages |
| Zscheischler et al.37 | journal article | 2018 | framework | compound events |
| Flores et al.38 | journal article | 2024 | supports | Amazon transitions |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State of the Climate, Latin America and the Caribbean 202515 | WMO | 2026 | supports | forcing |
| Rio Grande do Sul assessment16 | IDB, ECLAC, World Bank Group | 2024 | supports | floods |
| Bahía Blanca imagery17 | NASA Earth Observatory | 2025 | supports | storm |
| Dengue reporting1826 | PAHO | 2024 | supports | health |
| Latin America Energy Outlook48 | IEA | 2023 | context | energy |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population and output12 | World Bank | 2025 | supports | profile |
| Emissions and energy456 | World Bank | 2024 | supports | climate, energy |
| Forest and protected areas37 | World Bank | 2025 | supports | biodiversity |
| Water and demographics8910 | World Bank | 2024 | supports | water, profile |
| Electricity1314 | Ember | 2025 | supports | power mix |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Climate pledges192030 | Climate Action Tracker and Argentine government | 2025 | context | targets |
| Garabí converter27 | Hitachi Energy | 2023 | context | grid links |
| Gas exports28 | Energy Intelligence | 2026 | context | gas supply |
| Deforestation22 | INPE | 2025 | context | forest |
| Energy balance23 | EPE | 2026 | context | power mix |
Where the evidence agrees
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Treaty of the River Plate Basin (Tratado da Bacia do Prata), signed by the basin states in 1969. Observation year 1969. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Amazon Cooperation Treaty (Tratado de Cooperação Amazônica), signed by the Amazon basin states in 1978. Observation year 1978. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Treaty of Itaipú between Brazil and Paraguay on the hydroelectric use of the Paraná river, signed in 1973. Observation year 1973. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 21F. Sindico, in M. Fitzmaurice, A. Tanzi and A. Papantoniou (eds.), The Guarani Aquifer Agreement 2010, in Multilateral Environmental Treaties, Elgar Encyclopedia of Environmental Law. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 2017, pp. 299–310 (catalogue page opened; parties Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay). Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 12.187, de 29 de dezembro de 2009, institui a Política Nacional sobre Mudança do Clima. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2009. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 27.520, Presupuestos mínimos de adaptación y mitigación al cambio climático global; Ley 27.287 on the national civil protection system is listed with it. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2019. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 26.331, Presupuestos mínimos de protección ambiental de los bosques nativos. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2007. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Brazil: targets (second NDC, 59% to 67% below 2005 by 2035, 850 to 1,050 Mt CO2e including land use, submitted 13 November 2024; page updated 30 June 2026). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20Subsecretaría de Ambiente, Presidencia de la Nación (ed.), Argentina presentó la tercera contribución determinada a nivel nacional (net emissions not above 375 Mt CO2e for 2030 and 2035, 3 November 2025). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Energy Intelligence (ed.), Argentina’s piped gas exports to Brazil take step forward (first Vaca Muerta gas to Brazil through Bolivian pipelines, early 2026; 3 million m3 a day transit offer; taken from search summaries). Energy Intelligence, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Argentina: targets and 2035 NDC (states the 2035 target had not been submitted to the UNFCCC as of June 2026; taken from search summaries). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 15.042, de 11 de dezembro de 2024, institui o Sistema Brasileiro de Comércio de Emissões de Gases de Efeito Estufa. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 27.191, Régimen de fomento nacional para el uso de fuentes renovables de energía destinada a la producción de energía eléctrica. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: E. Castellanos, M. F. Lemos, L. Astigarraga et al., “Central and South America,” in Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, chapter 12. Cambridge University Press, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: B. M. Flores, A. Montoya, I. Staal et al., “Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system,” Nature, vol. 626, pp. 555–564, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2025 (series page, published 18 May 2026, updated 12 June 2026; key messages only, the full report was not opened). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16Inter-American Development Bank, with ECLAC and the World Bank Group (eds.), Damage and loss assessment of the April and May 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul (BRL 88.9 billion), as reported by Agência Brasil on 29 November 2024; the assessment itself was not opened. IDB, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17NASA Earth Observatory (ed.), Bahía Blanca inundated (image of the day, 17 March 2025; about 400 mm in 8 hours on 7 March 2025, previous daily record 175 mm in 1930; page updated 31 January 2026). NASA, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18Pan American Health Organization (ed.), PAHO calls for collective action in response to record increase in dengue cases in the Americas (news release, 28 March 2024; data as of 26 March 2024). PAHO, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Pan American Health Organization (ed.), Epidemiological alert: increase in dengue cases in the Americas region, 7 October 2024 (11,732,921 cases to epidemiological week 36; Brazil 5,303 deaths, Argentina 408; taken from search summaries because the PDF text could not be read). PAHO, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Latin America Energy Outlook. IEA, Paris, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1World Bank (ed.), Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Brazil, Argentina and Latin America & Caribbean aggregate, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2World Bank (ed.), GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), Brazil, Argentina and Latin America & Caribbean aggregate, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4World Bank (ed.), Renewable energy consumption, % of total final energy consumption (EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API (latest value returned is 2021). World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5World Bank (ed.), Renewable electricity output, % of total electricity output (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API (latest value returned is 2021). World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6World Bank (ed.), Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e, AR5 basis (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Brazil, Argentina and Latin America & Caribbean aggregate, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3World Bank (ed.), Forest area, % of land area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7World Bank (ed.), Terrestrial and marine protected areas, % of total territorial area (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8World Bank (ed.), People using safely managed drinking water services, % of population (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API (no value returned for Argentina). World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9World Bank (ed.), Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita, cubic metres (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10World Bank (ed.), Population ages 65 and above, % of total population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API (Brazil 11.5%, Argentina 12.6% in 2025; consulted for the profile, not used in a finding). World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13Ember (ed.), Brazil electricity country page (low-carbon share 89%, hydro 52%, wind and solar 27%, fossil 11% of generation in 2025; no generation total on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14Ember (ed.), Argentina electricity country page (low-carbon share 42%, wind and solar 16%, fossil 58% of generation in 2025; no generation total on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hitachi Energy (ed.), Brazil-Argentina HVDC interconnection, Garabí converter station (2,200 MW back-to-back; 60 Hz and 50 Hz; first phase 2000, second phase 2002; flows mainly Brazil to Argentina per a World Bank case study); taken from search summaries. Hitachi Energy, Zurich. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), PRODES estimate for the Legal Amazon, August 2024 to July 2025 (5,796 km2, 11.08% below the previous cycle; Cerrado 7,235 km2), announced 30 October 2025; taken from search summaries because the government page required authentication. INPE, São José dos Campos. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23UNVERIFIED, not opened: Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (ed.), Balanço Energético Nacional 2026, base year 2025 (renewable share of the electricity matrix 86.8%, from press summaries; the report was not found). EPE, Rio de Janeiro. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back