- South America 2026
- Chapter 7
The 2027 agenda
Eight bounded questions open the 2027 Regional Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1South America’s risk travels through shared rivers, grids and gas
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Basin drought across the Paraná corridor and the Amazon
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
7.1Questions for the operational series
- A-01
How would a drought on the Paraná and Amazon basins load hydropower, navigation and the grid across the border?
INI-SAM-CLI-01 · compound basin drought; first output: dependency graph for the Paraná corridor.
- A-02
How much cross-border electricity and gas can the members move in a dry year?
INI-SAM-ENE-02 · cross-border energy; first output: flow-and-capacity register.
- A-03
How do low flows on shared basins reach navigation, hydropower and farming?
INI-SAM-WAT-03 · shared basins; first output: basin performance note for the Paraná.
- A-04
How many dengue cases and deaths follow heat and rain, by member and year?
INI-SAM-HLT-04 · climate and health; first output: surveillance baseline for two members.
- A-05
Where do flood and storm losses fall between insurers, households and public budgets?
INI-SAM-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-member loss table.
- A-06
What is the condition of forest and wetland, and how is clearing measured across members?
INI-SAM-BIO-01 · workstream; first output: deforestation indicator note.
- A-07
How exposed are crop output and exports to drought and river logistics?
To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.
- A-08
Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?
Regional capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.
7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
Six initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 regional portfolio. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.
| ID | Object | Kind | Question | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INI-SAM-CLI-01 | Compound basin drought: rivers, hydropower and logistics | Initiative | A-01 | PROPOSED |
| INI-SAM-ENE-02 | Cross-border power and gas in a dry year | Initiative | A-02 | PROPOSED |
| INI-SAM-WAT-03 | Shared basins in dry years | Initiative | A-03 | PROPOSED |
| INI-SAM-HLT-04 | Climate and dengue surveillance baseline | Initiative | A-04 | PROPOSED |
| INI-SAM-FIN-05 | Flood and storm protection gap | Initiative | A-05 | PROPOSED |
| PRJ-SAM-CLI-01a | Paraná corridor compound drought dependency graph | Project | A-01 | PROPOSED |
| MSN-SAM-2027-01 | Rivers, power and logistics Universe mission | Mission | A-01 | Candidate |
7.3The pathway
The South America regional pathway is the route through which the Nexus operating system will read South America as one region from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its hubs are named in the series registry; its working arrangements are set from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.
- 01
National Foundries
continuous national evidence environments
PREPARED · first sealed cuts in Q1 2027
- 02
National Models and Portfolios
each country as a system of systems
CANADA v0 ISSUED · 25 further national baselines
- 03
Quarterly national reports
State & Agenda, Evidence, Stress Test, Annual
BASELINE STAGE · Q1 2027 opens the series
- 04
Regional aggregation
South America as one of ten regional clusters
THIS EDITION · annual regional cut from 2027
- 05
Global sector and strategic models
GS-01…15 · SR-01…14 · XT-01…20
49 PLANNED · pilots: GS-01, SR-01, XT-01
- 06
Universe
annual proving environment
CANDIDATE MISSION · global mandate in 2027
- 07
Global Report
this series
BASELINE ISSUED · 2027 annual edition
- 08
Evidence and correction
one graph, many projections
OPEN · first federation-wide correction cycle in 2027
7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the regional candidate mission
- 01
Mandate
- 02
Core Build · 1 month
- 03
Action · 1 week
- 04
Evidence seal
- 05
Portfolio correction
- 06
Next mandate
| Item | Record | State | Timing |
|---|---|---|---|
| F1 | Annual mandate record | PLANNED | after the Q2 2027 alignment |
| F2 | Core Build record | PLANNED | one month before the exercise |
| F3 | Exercise evidence | PLANNED | during the Action week |
| F4 | Decision packets | PLANNED | exercise state only |
| F5 | Proof receipts | PLANNED | scoped to each recorded check |
| F6 | After-action report | PLANNED | within one quarter |
| F7 | Upgrade docket | PLANNED | routed to the Portfolio |
| F8 | Portfolio renewal | PLANNED | 2027 regional annual edition |
| F9 | Public synthesis | PLANNED | public-safe extracts only |
Mission
- ID
- MSN-SAM-2027-01 · Rivers, power and logistics Universe mission
- Role spine
- Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
- Receiving actors
- to be identified with the mandate
7.5Handoffs and routing
Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.
| Finding | Routed to | Purpose | Class |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 · emissions | public record | reference for the 2027 series | PUBLIC |
| CLI-006 · floods 2024 | INI-SAM-CLI-01 | compound drought graph | PUBLIC |
| ENE-003 · electricity mix | INI-SAM-ENE-02 | cross-border energy | PUBLIC |
| ENE-005 · Garabí link | INI-SAM-ENE-02 | grid resilience | PUBLIC |
| WAT-008 · river lows | INI-SAM-WAT-03 | shared basins | PUBLIC |
| HLT-010 · dengue | INI-SAM-HLT-04 | climate and health baseline | PUBLIC |
| BIO-011 · forest | INI-SAM-BIO-01 | deforestation indicator | PUBLIC |
| SYS-012 · compound pathway | MSN-SAM-2027-01 | Universe candidate | CONSORTIUM |
| Class | Where it goes | Who can see it |
|---|---|---|
| PUBLIC | the published edition and its evidence bundle | anyone |
| CONSORTIUM | governed rooms of the federation | consortium members under agreement |
| CONTROLLED | need-to-know channels | named competent actors only |
7.6Feeds and signal register
| Feed | Producer | Latency | Feeds into |
|---|---|---|---|
| Climate and river records | WMO and national meteorological and water services | monthly | CLI and WAT findings |
| Electricity data | Ember | annual | ENE-003 |
| Dengue surveillance | PAHO and national health ministries | weekly in season | HLT-010 |
| Population and output | World Bank | annual | profile |
| Greenhouse gas series | World Bank and national inventories | annual | CLI-001 |
| Deforestation alerts and rates | INPE | annual | BIO-011 |
| Cross-border flows | national grid and gas operators | daily | ENE-005 |
Escalation routes
- none · keep monitoring
- research question
- project
- risk object
- quarterly publication
- signal report
| ID | Signal | Corroboration | Systems | Route |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIG-SAM-001 | Record of 2024 floods16 | CORROBORATED | CLI · INF | risk object RSK-SAM-CLI-001 |
| SIG-SAM-002 | Dengue to March 202418 | CORROBORATED | CLI · HLT | research question A-04 |
| SIG-SAM-003 | River lows 2021 and 20242425 | CORROBORATED | WAT · ENE | research question A-03 |
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 16Inter-American Development Bank, with ECLAC and the World Bank Group (eds.), Damage and loss assessment of the April and May 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul (BRL 88.9 billion), as reported by Agência Brasil on 29 November 2024; the assessment itself was not opened. IDB, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18Pan American Health Organization (ed.), PAHO calls for collective action in response to record increase in dengue cases in the Americas (news release, 28 March 2024; data as of 26 March 2024). PAHO, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Associated Press (ed.), Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years (Negro River at the port of Manaus 12.66 m, October 2024; the page opened returned not found). AP, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Associated Press and trade press (eds.), Drought hits South America river, threatening vast ecosystem (Paraná at its lowest level in nearly 80 years, 2021; reports of 77 and 80 years differ; Itaipú output). AP, New York, August 2021. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
