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Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

6 min read1 figure0 tables18 notesNR-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1South America’s risk travels through shared rivers, grids and gas
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Energy
    4. 2.4 Water
    5. 2.5 Food
    6. 2.6 Health
    7. 2.7 Biodiversity
    8. 2.8 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Basin drought across the Paraná corridor and the Amazon
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE-CLI-007

About 400 mm of rain fell in eight hours on Bahía Blanca on 7 March 2025, against a previous daily record of 175 mm set in 1930.

Figure 2.1Rainfall at Bahía Blanca, 7 March 2025 against the previous daily record (mm)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
7 March 2025, in eight hours, about400
Previous daily record, 1930175

Source: NASA Earth Observatory image of the day17. The two values cover different time windows and are shown for scale, not as a like-for-like series.

Implication

A single storm can exceed a station record by more than twofold. Port, road, hospital and grain-export services in a coastal city then fail together, which makes flood response a question for several authorities at once17.

What would move it

Rainfall observations, flood-warning performance, the final casualty count and the insured-loss series would each move this finding. The final casualty count is not bound29.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    Brazil emitted 1,299.2 Mt CO₂e and Argentina 374.3 Mt in 2024, excluding land use; the two members together emitted 1,673.5 Mt.6

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

    Brazil’s second pledge sets a 2035 range of 59% to 67% below 2005 (850 to 1,050 Mt CO₂e including land use); Argentina announced a net ceiling of 375 Mt CO₂e for 2030 and 2035.1920

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE-CLI-006

    The April and May 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul caused BRL 88.9 billion of damage and loss, as assessed by the Inter-American Development Bank with ECLAC and the World Bank Group.16

  4. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE-CLI-007

    About 400 mm of rain fell in eight hours on Bahía Blanca on 7 March 2025, against a previous daily record of 175 mm set in 1930.17

2.3Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

    Low-carbon sources supplied 89% of Brazil’s electricity in 2025 (hydro 52%, wind and solar 27%) and 42% of Argentina’s (wind and solar 16%, fossil 58%).1314

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

    In 2021 renewables supplied 46.5% of Brazil’s final energy and 9.2% of Argentina’s; the series reads 77.4% and 25.5% of electricity output for the same year.45

  3. ReportedEQL 2NRF-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE-ENE-005

    The Garabí back-to-back converter links the Brazilian 60 Hz and Argentine 50 Hz systems at a rated 2,200 MW, and flows have mainly run from Brazil to Argentina.27

2.4Water

  1. ReportedEQL 2NRF-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE-WAT-008

    The Negro River at Manaus fell to 12.66 m in October 2024, its lowest level in 122 years of record, and the Paraná fell in 2021 to its lowest in nearly 80 years by press accounts.2425

2.5Food

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009

    Agriculture, forestry and fishing supplied 6.1% of Brazil’s GDP and 5.5% of Argentina’s in 2025.11

2.6Health

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE-HLT-010

    By 26 March 2024 the Americas had over 3.5 million dengue cases and over 1,000 deaths; Brazil accounted for 83% of cases, Paraguay 5.3% and Argentina 3.7%.18

2.7Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011

    Forest covered 58.5% of Brazil and 17.1% of Argentina in 2024; protected areas covered 29.4% and 9.7% in 2025; PRODES put Amazon clearing at 5,796 km² for August 2024 to July 2025.3722

2.8Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a drought in the Paraná and Amazon basins in which low river levels, hydropower shortfall, gas demand and export logistics coincide. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 17NASA Earth Observatory (ed.), Bahía Blanca inundated (image of the day, 17 March 2025; about 400 mm in 8 hours on 7 March 2025, previous daily record 175 mm in 1930; page updated 31 January 2026). NASA, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Argentine and international press (eds.), Bahía Blanca floods of March 2025 (at least 16 deaths reported, counts rose over several days; no final official total read). Municipality of Bahía Blanca and press, March 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 6World Bank (ed.), Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e, AR5 basis (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Brazil, Argentina and Latin America & Caribbean aggregate, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 19Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Brazil: targets (second NDC, 59% to 67% below 2005 by 2035, 850 to 1,050 Mt CO2e including land use, submitted 13 November 2024; page updated 30 June 2026). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 20Subsecretaría de Ambiente, Presidencia de la Nación (ed.), Argentina presentó la tercera contribución determinada a nivel nacional (net emissions not above 375 Mt CO2e for 2030 and 2035, 3 November 2025). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 16Inter-American Development Bank, with ECLAC and the World Bank Group (eds.), Damage and loss assessment of the April and May 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul (BRL 88.9 billion), as reported by Agência Brasil on 29 November 2024; the assessment itself was not opened. IDB, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 13Ember (ed.), Brazil electricity country page (low-carbon share 89%, hydro 52%, wind and solar 27%, fossil 11% of generation in 2025; no generation total on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 14Ember (ed.), Argentina electricity country page (low-carbon share 42%, wind and solar 16%, fossil 58% of generation in 2025; no generation total on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 4World Bank (ed.), Renewable energy consumption, % of total final energy consumption (EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API (latest value returned is 2021). World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 5World Bank (ed.), Renewable electricity output, % of total electricity output (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API (latest value returned is 2021). World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hitachi Energy (ed.), Brazil-Argentina HVDC interconnection, Garabí converter station (2,200 MW back-to-back; 60 Hz and 50 Hz; first phase 2000, second phase 2002; flows mainly Brazil to Argentina per a World Bank case study); taken from search summaries. Hitachi Energy, Zurich. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Associated Press (ed.), Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years (Negro River at the port of Manaus 12.66 m, October 2024; the page opened returned not found). AP, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Associated Press and trade press (eds.), Drought hits South America river, threatening vast ecosystem (Paraná at its lowest level in nearly 80 years, 2021; reports of 77 and 80 years differ; Itaipú output). AP, New York, August 2021. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 11World Bank (ed.), Agriculture, forestry and fishing, value added, % of GDP (NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 18Pan American Health Organization (ed.), PAHO calls for collective action in response to record increase in dengue cases in the Americas (news release, 28 March 2024; data as of 26 March 2024). PAHO, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 3World Bank (ed.), Forest area, % of land area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 7World Bank (ed.), Terrestrial and marine protected areas, % of total territorial area (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), PRODES estimate for the Legal Amazon, August 2024 to July 2025 (5,796 km2, 11.08% below the previous cycle; Cerrado 7,235 km2), announced 30 October 2025; taken from search summaries because the government page required authentication. INPE, São José dos Campos. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In South America Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of South America’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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