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Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

8 min read0 figures5 tables20 notesNR-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1South America’s risk travels through shared rivers, grids and gas
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Basin drought across the Paraná corridor and the Amazon
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Member countries: the baseline regional chapter
    2. 8.2 Shared basins and grids: the baseline regional chapter
    3. 8.3 Hub list: the baseline regional chapter
    4. 8.4 Regional pathway: the baseline regional chapter
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Member countries: the baseline regional chapter

The two member countries named in the series registry, read side by side on the same indicators. Latin America and the Caribbean totals appear only as a reference aggregate. They are not the region and are not joined to it.

258.7million

Brazil and Argentina population, 20251

1,673.5Mt CO₂e

emissions excluding land use, 20246

2,963USD billion

GDP combined, 20252

Table 8.1Member system cards at baseline
MemberState at baselineEvidenceStatus
Brazilpopulation 212.8 million; emissions 1,299.2 Mt; low-carbon 89% of electricity; renewables 46.5% of final energy in 2021; forest 58.5%; 29.4% protected; floods in 2024134671316Reported
Argentinapopulation 45.9 million; emissions 374.3 Mt; low-carbon 42% of electricity; renewables 9.2% in 2021; forest 17.1%; 9.7% protected; Bahía Blanca storm in 2025; safe water not bound134671417Reported
Latin America and the Caribbean reference aggregatepopulation 666.6 million; GDP USD 7,396 billion; emissions 3,510.6 Mt (not the region)126Reported

Couplings across members

  • CLI → WAT across the Paraná corridor (Brazil, Argentina and neighbours)
  • ENE → ENE through the Garabí link and gas pipelines
  • HLT ← CLI dengue across members and neighbours
  • FIN ← CLI losses carried by insurers across borders

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • net emissions with land use on one basis
  • flood loss and dengue series by member
  • Argentine safely managed water share

8.2Shared basins and grids: the baseline regional chapter

Shared basins, an aquifer, grids and gas supply carry risk across member borders. This chapter names each system, the members involved and the evidence read at baseline. Rows without a source are designed empty states.

2,200MW

Garabí converter rating27

3million m³ a day

Bolivian transit offer for Argentine gas, as reported28

4states

parties to the Guarani aquifer agreement21

Table 8.2Shared basins and seas
BasinMembers involvedEvidenceStatus
Paraná–La PlataBrazil and Argentina; other basin states are outside the member set; area not bound39NOT BOUND
Uruguay RiverArgentina and Brazil on its banks; no source read39NOT BOUND
AmazonBrazil; Argentina is not a basin state; Negro River low in 20242440Reported
Guarani aquiferBrazil and Argentina among four states; area by country not bound21NOT BOUND
Table 8.3Shared grids and gas networks
GridMembers involvedEvidenceStatus
Garabí linkrated 2,200 MW back-to-back converter between 60 Hz and 50 Hz systems; flows mainly from Brazil to Argentina27Reported
Itaipú and Yacyretábinational plants on shared rivers; output not bound41NOT BOUND
Gas supplyfirst Argentine exports to Brazil through Bolivian pipelines reported in early 2026; volumes not bound28Reported
Gas transit volumea figure of 3 million m³ a day was quoted for transit; not corroborated28Inferred
Electricity trade flowsmonthly flows between the members not bound27NOT BOUND

Couplings through shared systems

  • CLI → WAT → ENE low flow into hydropower
  • INF → ENE a link fault crossing borders
  • TRD → ENE gas route change into power prices
  • WAT → FOO navigation and irrigation

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • Paraná low-water days and navigation depth
  • basin area by country
  • binational plant output
  • monthly gas transit volumes

8.3Hub list: the baseline regional chapter

The hubs the series registry names for this region and for its member countries. The list is read from the registry, so a change there changes this page.

Registry

Regional hubs
São Paulo
Desks with a remit
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · GRX
Registry record
NR-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Table 8.4Member hubs as the registry names them
HubMemberRegistry roleMember edition
São PauloBrazilG20 · hubin preparation
not named in the registryArgentinaG20in preparation

What a hub does in this series

  • Hub terms of reference are not set at baseline
  • Hub contact points are not named at baseline
  • The registry names the hubs and the desks with a remit; working arrangements follow from Q1 2027

8.4Regional pathway: the baseline regional chapter

The regional pathway is the route through which the series reads South America as one region from 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next. It does not describe any body that has not been constituted.

Table 8.5The regional pathway at baseline
StageWhat exists todayStateNext
Regional hubsSão Paulo is named in the series registryNAMEDterms set from Q1 2027
DesksGCRI, GRF and GRX hold the remit for regional editions in the registryNAMEDwork plan for Q1 2027
Evidence graphmember and regional findings share identifiersPREPAREDfirst sealed cut NQ-REG-SAM-2027-Q1
Member editionsBrazil in preparation; Argentina in preparationMIXEDreview through the chain before release

Open at baseline

  • Constitution of any regional council or working group
  • Hub terms of reference and contact points
  • Admission of further South American subjects to the registry

Decisions that rest elsewhere

  • Energy, water and health policy rest with national authorities
  • Treaties are made by their parties; this edition cites them and decides nothing
  • Countries that share basins with the members are not members of this edition

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1World Bank (ed.), Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Brazil, Argentina and Latin America & Caribbean aggregate, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 6World Bank (ed.), Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e, AR5 basis (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Brazil, Argentina and Latin America & Caribbean aggregate, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 2World Bank (ed.), GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), Brazil, Argentina and Latin America & Caribbean aggregate, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 3World Bank (ed.), Forest area, % of land area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 4World Bank (ed.), Renewable energy consumption, % of total final energy consumption (EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API (latest value returned is 2021). World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 7World Bank (ed.), Terrestrial and marine protected areas, % of total territorial area (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 13Ember (ed.), Brazil electricity country page (low-carbon share 89%, hydro 52%, wind and solar 27%, fossil 11% of generation in 2025; no generation total on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 16Inter-American Development Bank, with ECLAC and the World Bank Group (eds.), Damage and loss assessment of the April and May 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul (BRL 88.9 billion), as reported by Agência Brasil on 29 November 2024; the assessment itself was not opened. IDB, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 14Ember (ed.), Argentina electricity country page (low-carbon share 42%, wind and solar 16%, fossil 58% of generation in 2025; no generation total on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 17NASA Earth Observatory (ed.), Bahía Blanca inundated (image of the day, 17 March 2025; about 400 mm in 8 hours on 7 March 2025, previous daily record 175 mm in 1930; page updated 31 January 2026). NASA, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 18Pan American Health Organization (ed.), PAHO calls for collective action in response to record increase in dengue cases in the Americas (news release, 28 March 2024; data as of 26 March 2024). PAHO, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Pan American Health Organization (ed.), Epidemiological alert: increase in dengue cases in the Americas region, 7 October 2024 (11,732,921 cases to epidemiological week 36; Brazil 5,303 deaths, Argentina 408; taken from search summaries because the PDF text could not be read). PAHO, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hitachi Energy (ed.), Brazil-Argentina HVDC interconnection, Garabí converter station (2,200 MW back-to-back; 60 Hz and 50 Hz; first phase 2000, second phase 2002; flows mainly Brazil to Argentina per a World Bank case study); taken from search summaries. Hitachi Energy, Zurich. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Energy Intelligence (ed.), Argentina’s piped gas exports to Brazil take step forward (first Vaca Muerta gas to Brazil through Bolivian pipelines, early 2026; 3 million m3 a day transit offer; taken from search summaries). Energy Intelligence, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 21F. Sindico, in M. Fitzmaurice, A. Tanzi and A. Papantoniou (eds.), The Guarani Aquifer Agreement 2010, in Multilateral Environmental Treaties, Elgar Encyclopedia of Environmental Law. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 2017, pp. 299–310 (catalogue page opened; parties Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay). Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Treaty of the River Plate Basin (Tratado da Bacia do Prata), signed by the basin states in 1969. Observation year 1969. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Associated Press (ed.), Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years (Negro River at the port of Manaus 12.66 m, October 2024; the page opened returned not found). AP, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Amazon Cooperation Treaty (Tratado de Cooperação Amazônica), signed by the Amazon basin states in 1978. Observation year 1978. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Treaty of Itaipú between Brazil and Paraguay on the hydroelectric use of the Paraná river, signed in 1973. Observation year 1973. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Associated Press and trade press (eds.), Drought hits South America river, threatening vast ecosystem (Paraná at its lowest level in nearly 80 years, 2021; reports of 77 and 80 years differ; Itaipú output). AP, New York, August 2021. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In South America Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of South America’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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