- South America 2026
- Chapter 3
Systems and sectors at baseline
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1South America’s risk travels through shared rivers, grids and gas
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Basin drought across the Paraná corridor and the Amazon
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
3.1Where each system stood at evidence close
WAT · Water
Renewable internal freshwater per person, Brazil
26,918m³Argentina had 6,431 m³ per person. Both are national averages and hide basin differences.
Reported2022World Bank9
ENE · Energy
Low-carbon share of electricity generation, Brazil
89%Hydro supplied 52%, wind and solar 27%. Argentina was at 42%.
FOO · Food
Agriculture, forestry and fishing, share of GDP, Brazil
6.1%Argentina was 5.5%. Output and export volumes are not bound.
Reported2025World Bank11
HLT · Health
Dengue cases in the Americas to 26 March 2024
3.5million +Brazil held 83% of regional cases and Argentina 3.7%. Full-year totals are not bound.
Reported2024PAHO18
BIO · Biodiversity
Forest area, share of land, Brazil
58.5%Argentina 17.1%. Protected area was 29.4% of Brazil and 9.7% of Argentina.
SYS · Cross-system
Damage and loss, Rio Grande do Sul floods
88.9BRL billionA joint assessment led by the Inter-American Development Bank with ECLAC and the World Bank Group.
Reported2024Agência Brasil16
3.2Domain posture
Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The reading states where the regional evidence points; the coupling column names the dependency that carries risk across systems and borders.
| Domain | Posture at baseline | Coupling | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | Large freshwater stocks, 26,918 m³ per person in Brazil and 6,431 in Argentina in 20229; Negro River record low in 202424. | WAT → ENE · WAT → FOO | Reported EQL 4 |
| ENE | Low-carbon share of electricity 89% in Brazil and 42% in Argentina in 20251314. | ENE → all | Reported EQL 4 |
| FOO | Agriculture is 6.1% of GDP in Brazil and 5.5% in Argentina11. Harvest and export volumes not bound. | FOO ← WAT, CLI | Reported EQL 3 |
| HLT | Dengue: over 3.5 million cases in the Americas to 26 March 202418. | HLT ← CLI | Reported EQL 3 |
| BIO | Forest 58.5% of Brazil and 17.1% of Argentina; protected 29.4% and 9.7%37. | BIO ↔ WAT, FOO | Reported EQL 3 |
| CLI | Floods in 2024 cost BRL 88.9 billion; a 2025 storm set a rainfall record1617. | forcing on all systems | Reported EQL 4 |
| INF | A 2,200 MW converter links two grids on different frequencies27. Cross-border flows not bound. | INF → all | Reported EQL 2 |
| FIN | Insured and uninsured flood losses not bound; a joint assessment exists for the 2024 floods16. | FIN ← CLI | Not bound EQL 1 |
| DAT | Digital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution. | DAT → ENE, FIN | Expert input EQL 2 |
| AIC | Data-centre and compute demand on grids and water not bound. | AIC → ENE, WAT | Not bound EQL 1 |
| MIN | Mineral and fuel trade not bound at baseline. | MIN ← TRD | Not bound EQL 1 |
| TRD | Argentine gas now moves to Brazil through Bolivian pipelines; volumes not bound28. | TRD → all | Inferred EQL 3 |
3.3Sector screens
All sixteen global sectors are screened on the same grammar as every national edition, so later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.
| Code | Sector | Baseline evidence | Exposure to watch | Evidence coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS-00 | Cross-system | compound drought, hydropower and logistics stress | basin drought across member borders | PARTIAL |
| GS-01 | Water | 26,918 m³ per person in Brazil, 6,431 in Argentina9 | low flows on shared rivers | PARTIAL |
| GS-02 | Energy | low-carbon 89% and 42% of electricity1314 | hydro dependence; gas supply | GOOD |
| GS-03 | Food | agriculture 6.1% and 5.5% of GDP11 | drought and river logistics | THIN |
| GS-04 | Health | over 3.5 million dengue cases in the Americas18 | seasonal outbreaks | PARTIAL |
| GS-05 | Finance | loss series not bound | protection gap | THIN |
| GS-06 | Development | income and access series bound only in part8 | water access in Argentina not bound | THIN |
| GS-07 | Climate | two national pledges in place1920 | drought, flood and fire | GOOD |
| GS-08 | Disaster | floods and a record storm in 2024 and 20251617 | compound and sequential events | PARTIAL |
| GS-09 | Infrastructure | one converter and pipelines link the members2728 | flow data not bound | PARTIAL |
| GS-10 | Cities | 88.2% and 92.4% urban population12 | urban flood and heat | THIN |
| GS-11 | Biodiversity | forest 58.5% and 17.1% of land3 | clearing and condition at source | PARTIAL |
| GS-12 | Earth observation | WMO regional report and NASA imagery published1517 | continuity of records | GOOD |
| GS-13 | Cyber and digital | dependencies not mapped | systemic outages | THIN |
| GS-14 | Policy | climate, forest and energy laws in both members424445 | coordination across levels | PARTIAL |
| GS-15 | Science | peer-reviewed Amazon and compound-event record3738 | translation to members | PARTIAL |
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 9World Bank (ed.), Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita, cubic metres (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13Ember (ed.), Brazil electricity country page (low-carbon share 89%, hydro 52%, wind and solar 27%, fossil 11% of generation in 2025; no generation total on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14Ember (ed.), Argentina electricity country page (low-carbon share 42%, wind and solar 16%, fossil 58% of generation in 2025; no generation total on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11World Bank (ed.), Agriculture, forestry and fishing, value added, % of GDP (NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18Pan American Health Organization (ed.), PAHO calls for collective action in response to record increase in dengue cases in the Americas (news release, 28 March 2024; data as of 26 March 2024). PAHO, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3World Bank (ed.), Forest area, % of land area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7World Bank (ed.), Terrestrial and marine protected areas, % of total territorial area (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16Inter-American Development Bank, with ECLAC and the World Bank Group (eds.), Damage and loss assessment of the April and May 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul (BRL 88.9 billion), as reported by Agência Brasil on 29 November 2024; the assessment itself was not opened. IDB, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Associated Press (ed.), Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years (Negro River at the port of Manaus 12.66 m, October 2024; the page opened returned not found). AP, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17NASA Earth Observatory (ed.), Bahía Blanca inundated (image of the day, 17 March 2025; about 400 mm in 8 hours on 7 March 2025, previous daily record 175 mm in 1930; page updated 31 January 2026). NASA, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hitachi Energy (ed.), Brazil-Argentina HVDC interconnection, Garabí converter station (2,200 MW back-to-back; 60 Hz and 50 Hz; first phase 2000, second phase 2002; flows mainly Brazil to Argentina per a World Bank case study); taken from search summaries. Hitachi Energy, Zurich. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Energy Intelligence (ed.), Argentina’s piped gas exports to Brazil take step forward (first Vaca Muerta gas to Brazil through Bolivian pipelines, early 2026; 3 million m3 a day transit offer; taken from search summaries). Energy Intelligence, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8World Bank (ed.), People using safely managed drinking water services, % of population (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API (no value returned for Argentina). World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Brazil: targets (second NDC, 59% to 67% below 2005 by 2035, 850 to 1,050 Mt CO2e including land use, submitted 13 November 2024; page updated 30 June 2026). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20Subsecretaría de Ambiente, Presidencia de la Nación (ed.), Argentina presentó la tercera contribución determinada a nivel nacional (net emissions not above 375 Mt CO2e for 2030 and 2035, 3 November 2025). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12World Bank (ed.), Urban population, % of total population (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2025 (series page, published 18 May 2026, updated 12 June 2026; key messages only, the full report was not opened). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: República Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei nº 12.187, de 29 de dezembro de 2009, institui a Política Nacional sobre Mudança do Clima. Diário Oficial da União, Brasília, 2009. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 27.520, Presupuestos mínimos de adaptación y mitigación al cambio climático global; Ley 27.287 on the national civil protection system is listed with it. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2019. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 26.331, Presupuestos mínimos de protección ambiental de los bosques nativos. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2007. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: B. M. Flores, A. Montoya, I. Staal et al., “Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system,” Nature, vol. 626, pp. 555–564, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back