- South America 2026
- Executive summary
Executive summary
The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1South America’s risk travels through shared rivers, grids and gas
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Basin drought across the Paraná corridor and the Amazon
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
S.1Abstract
South America, as the series reads it, is two member countries (Brazil and Argentina) that share river basins, an aquifer, power links and gas supply with neighbours that are not yet members. Brazil had 212.8 million residents and Argentina 45.9 million in 20251. Their greenhouse gas emissions excluding land use were 1,299.2 and 374.3 Mt CO₂e in 20246. Low-carbon sources supplied 89% of Brazil’s electricity and 42% of Argentina’s in 20251314. The 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul caused BRL 88.9 billion of damage and loss16. In March 2025 about 400 mm of rain fell in eight hours on Bahía Blanca, against a previous daily record of 175 mm17. By 26 March 2024 the Americas had recorded over 3.5 million dengue cases, 83% of them in Brazil18. Forests cover 58.5% of Brazil’s land and 17.1% of Argentina’s3. This Baseline Edition fixes the 2026 reference state from sources that could be read at evidence close. Where a regional dataset could not be read, it shows as a designed empty state that names the source and the blocker. The edition decides nothing and ranks no member country.
S.2Key messages
Six readings that frame the South America baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
Brazil emitted 1,299.2 Mt and Argentina 374.3 Mt in 2024, excluding land use. Net bases with land use are not bound.6
Where do emissions stand?Reported
Brazil: 59% to 67% below 2005 by 2035. Argentina: a net ceiling of 375 Mt for 2030 and 2035.1920
What are the targets?Reported
Low-carbon sources supplied 89% in Brazil and 42% in Argentina in 2025.1314
How is electricity supplied?Reported
A 2,200 MW converter and gas pipelines through Bolivia link the members; flows are not bound.2728
How exposed is supply across the border?Reported
The 2024 floods cost BRL 88.9 billion; one 2025 storm dropped about 400 mm in eight hours.1617
How severe were recent floods and storms?Reported
The Negro River hit a 122-year low in 2024; the Paraná was at an 80-year low in 2021. Low-water series are not bound.2425
How exposed are rivers to drought?Reported
Insured and uninsured loss series are not bound in this edition.16
Who carries flood losses?Not bound
Low river levels, hydropower shortfall, gas demand and export logistics coinciding. SCN-SAM-DRY-01
What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input
S.3Headline finding
ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-SAM-2026-BASELINE-CLI-007
About 400 mm of rain fell in eight hours on Bahía Blanca on 7 March 2025, against a previous daily record of 175 mm set in 1930.
| Item | Bar, scaled to the largest value | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 7 March 2025, in eight hours, about | 400 | |
| Previous daily record, 1930 | 175 |
Source: NASA Earth Observatory image of the day17. The two values cover different time windows and are shown for scale, not as a like-for-like series.
A single storm can exceed a station record by more than twofold. Port, road, hospital and grain-export services in a coastal city then fail together, which makes flood response a question for several authorities at once17.
S.4At a glance
S.5What each steward reads in it
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports a coupled reading of South American risk: drought, flood and heat act on water, energy and health together.
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people risk arrives as a flood, a dry river or a dengue season.
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Insured and uninsured loss series are not bound.
NEXUS
Synthesis
The region publishes strong series on emissions, electricity and forest, and two national pledges.
S.6What this edition is, and is not
What this edition is
A baseline: the state of South America’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026 read across Brazil, Argentina. It reads the shared basins and grids that no single member controls, and sets out the questions the operational series will answer.
What it is not
Not a regional risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and each member’s ownership of its own edition is unaffected. It does not stand for the European Union, which is a separate subject in the series.
What comes next
Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline: new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1World Bank (ed.), Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Brazil, Argentina and Latin America & Caribbean aggregate, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6World Bank (ed.), Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e, AR5 basis (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Brazil, Argentina and Latin America & Caribbean aggregate, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13Ember (ed.), Brazil electricity country page (low-carbon share 89%, hydro 52%, wind and solar 27%, fossil 11% of generation in 2025; no generation total on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14Ember (ed.), Argentina electricity country page (low-carbon share 42%, wind and solar 16%, fossil 58% of generation in 2025; no generation total on the page). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16Inter-American Development Bank, with ECLAC and the World Bank Group (eds.), Damage and loss assessment of the April and May 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul (BRL 88.9 billion), as reported by Agência Brasil on 29 November 2024; the assessment itself was not opened. IDB, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17NASA Earth Observatory (ed.), Bahía Blanca inundated (image of the day, 17 March 2025; about 400 mm in 8 hours on 7 March 2025, previous daily record 175 mm in 1930; page updated 31 January 2026). NASA, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18Pan American Health Organization (ed.), PAHO calls for collective action in response to record increase in dengue cases in the Americas (news release, 28 March 2024; data as of 26 March 2024). PAHO, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3World Bank (ed.), Forest area, % of land area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Brazil and Argentina, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Brazil: targets (second NDC, 59% to 67% below 2005 by 2035, 850 to 1,050 Mt CO2e including land use, submitted 13 November 2024; page updated 30 June 2026). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20Subsecretaría de Ambiente, Presidencia de la Nación (ed.), Argentina presentó la tercera contribución determinada a nivel nacional (net emissions not above 375 Mt CO2e for 2030 and 2035, 3 November 2025). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hitachi Energy (ed.), Brazil-Argentina HVDC interconnection, Garabí converter station (2,200 MW back-to-back; 60 Hz and 50 Hz; first phase 2000, second phase 2002; flows mainly Brazil to Argentina per a World Bank case study); taken from search summaries. Hitachi Energy, Zurich. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Energy Intelligence (ed.), Argentina’s piped gas exports to Brazil take step forward (first Vaca Muerta gas to Brazil through Bolivian pipelines, early 2026; 3 million m3 a day transit offer; taken from search summaries). Energy Intelligence, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: Associated Press (ed.), Drought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years (Negro River at the port of Manaus 12.66 m, October 2024; the page opened returned not found). AP, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Associated Press and trade press (eds.), Drought hits South America river, threatening vast ecosystem (Paraná at its lowest level in nearly 80 years, 2021; reports of 77 and 80 years differ; Itaipú output). AP, New York, August 2021. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2World Bank (ed.), GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), Brazil, Argentina and Latin America & Caribbean aggregate, World Development Indicators API. World Bank, Washington, DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back